Hunter Ward

October 30, 2019

First Snowflakes Of The Season Possible Above 4500' Friday AM For WNC

Hunter Ward

October 30, 2019

Thats right! It’s that time of the year where backside moisture from frontal passages gets strained out along the NC/TN border. This first Northwest flow event looks to have very minimal impacts, and accumulation, if any, is still in question. That being said, it does appear that the first flakes of the 2019-2020 season will fly late Thursday night and into the morning on Friday above 4500’. This is about a week and a half late per the average for elevations above 4500’, but it certainly isn’t the latest ever. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km Precipitation type for early Friday morning.

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Below you can see the total model run of precipitation depiction, and as you can after showers clear.. precipitation builds in the highest elevations along the NC/TN border. That is when flakes will fly.

Little If Any Accumulation Expected

I am not expecting much of any accumulation, possible 1/4” to 1/2” on Roan Mt. could be possible.. but the ground is warm. Below you can see the Nam 3km snowfall totals and it echos that sentiment. That could change though, and I will keep you update if we expect more accumulation.

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Below Freezing Likely For Most Friday AM

Here you can see a Gif of the most recent Nam 3km and it shows temperatures plummeting into the upper 20’s around Asheville as the front passes. This will be a shock to the system! Please be prepared on Friday morning to wear a heavy coat!

NAM-WRF 3-km Metro Regions North Carolina 2-m Temperature-2.gif

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Hunter Ward

October 30, 2019

Flash Flooding Possible Around WNC, Rain Clears By Mid Afternoon On Thursday

Hunter Ward

October 30, 2019

All halloween plans may not be lost around WNC with the speeding up of the frontal passage currently occurring. Models lagged this system into the evening hours on previous runs, but now appear to have the rain clearing WNC by 5-6pm. That will be perfect for trick-or-treaters! So, if you have early plans on Halloween, it would be wise to have rain gear.. but as we progress towards sun down, the rain chances will dramatically decrease. But take a jacket, it will get cold! Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km model progression. Note the time stamp in the top right hand corner and you can see that the front is out of WNC by 5pm on Thursday.

Nam 3km simulated radar courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Don’t Cancel Plans Just Yet

The front will just be clearing as many Halloween festivities begin, so if you can set them up in the rain then let the party go on! I will caution you on the setup though, winds will be picking up and some severe weather is possible as the front passes. So if thunder roars, head indoors! Early trick-or-treating may be questionable, but I expect this front to be out of WNC by 6pm, so just hold off a bit before you head out!

Flash Flooding Could Be Possible

I am beginning to become increasingly concerned about flash flooding along the Blue Ridge Escarpment here in WNC. Models continue to enhance the flow as it moves in from the southwest, and in turn that wrings out excessive precipitation along that area. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km precipitation totals through Friday AM, and those precipitation maximums of 6”+ along the NC/SC border are what really have me concerned.

Nam 3km Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Wet Soil Already Along Blue Ridge Escarpment

It is already very wet in locations like Lake Toxaway, & Brevard and this system will not help the drying out process. This will help the drought concerns though. But too much rain at one time can lead to flash flooding in the area. Please be mindful of this as you make plans for this evening and Thursday.

Cold Front To Follow

Temperatures in the upper 20’s are possible Friday morning around WNC as the frontal passage makes it way through. Below you can see temperature change on Thursday night and it is dramatic!

Elevations Above 5000’ Will Likely See First Snowflakes

After this front passes, backside moisture will strain out along the NC/TN border. This will likely bring the first snowflakes of the season to locations above 5000’. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km precipitation type map from late Thursday night. Notice the frozen precipitation on the NC/TN border. That is what I am keying on, and will continue to watch as models progress.

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Hunter Ward

October 29, 2019

Heavy Rain Could Ruin Halloween Plan Around WNC

Hunter Ward

October 29, 2019

Models continue to suggest that a slow moving front will push through the area beginning tomorrow, and lasting through the day on Thursday. Most models indicate that the rainfall will persist into early Friday morning, effectively putting a damper on many halloween festivities that will be taking place around WNC. 2”+ of rainfall will be likely for the majority of WNC as this front meanders through the mountains, and southwest flow really enhances. Locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment stand a much better chance of seeing flooding from this event, but I can’t rule out flash flooding all around WNC later Thursday. Below you can see the most recent GFS & European models precipitation total projection through the next 3 days.

European Model Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Flash Flooding Possible

Several days ago we were in a drought, but we quickly seem to be recovering from that.. and the wet pattern continues. This system here could bring many areas out of drought conditions. That is great news!! But with that comes the threat for flash flooding around WNC. With the southwest flow that will set up Wednesday into Thursday, some locations are going to get hammered. Especially along the southern slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains. When these system orient the way this particular one appears to, the flow can increase the rainfall in isolated locations. Therefore flash flooding will be a concern as we progress into Thursday. Ponding on the roadways will also be likely as heavy bands of rain move through. This is typical, but can cause quite the trouble on the roadways if one is not prepared. So please be cautious when traveling Wednesday and Thursday around WNC.

When Will The Rain Start?

Around Asheville, look for scattered showers to develop early Wednesday morning, and progressively get heavier throughout the day Wednesday. Then Wednesday night, heavy rainfall could be possible. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km radar depiction for the next 60 hours. It shows a constant barrage of showers for the extended period.

Will This Ruin Halloween Plans Around WNC?

Unless your costume includes an umbrella, or you were planning on going as Jim Cantore, then yes this rain will likely affect your Halloween plans. I know there are several trunk-or-treats and festivals scheduled for the area on Thursday, and it would be wise to get tents prepared, or move those events to Friday evening when the weather looks much more favorable.

Cold Front Headed For WNC This Weekend

A stout cold front will follow this frontal passage into the weekend and cold temperatures will again be likely on Saturday & Sunday mornings. In fact, most locations will dip into the mid 30’s. Below you can see the most recent GFS model and its projection of temperatures for Saturday morning around 8am.

Set Your Clocks Back Sunday Night!!

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Hunter Ward

October 27, 2019

2019 AshevilleWX Fall Color Forecast, Vibrant Colors Projected For WNC

Hunter Ward

October 27, 2019

Update: Fall color is peaking around WNC currently, so get out and enjoy it! This weekend and next weekend will be peak color around Asheville, and it appears that many leaves are still intact after the front moved through early this morning. Leaf color will continue to enhance around WNC this week, but rainfall Wednesday into Thursday will affect Halloween plans. I have upped my vibrancy forecast to 7.5 because fall color is really enhancing this year!

Vibrant Fall Color Expected This Year For WNC

Signs are currently pointing to beautiful and vibrant color this fall for all of WNC. With limited rainfall across the area for the past month, I believe that we are set for a special fall. Below you can see my projection map for when locations around WNC will see peak color. I expect color to peak around Asheville on the week of October 28th-November 3rd, and I am forecasting a 7.5/10 on the AshevilleWX Vibrancy Scale.

For higher elevations, leaves will change before valley locations.. and many locations above 5500’ will begin to see peak color around October 7th. This would include locations like Mount Mitchell, and Roan Mountain, just to name a few. Clingman’s Dome, and even Grandfather Mountain will begin to peak on the week of October 7th-October 13th.

During the peak week of October 14th-October 20th, locations like Graveyard Fields, and Linn Cove Viaduct will begin to peak, as well as many of the leaves around Boone, NC. In SW WNC Wayah Bald will begin to peak in this time frame, along with the Cherohala Skyway.

From October 21st-October 27th many of the mountains around the immediate Asheville area will begin to peak. That includes Mt. Pisgah, and surrounding peaks. Locations like Looking Glass Rock which can be seen from the Blue Ridge Parkway will be embroidered in fall attire during this week, and I expect this to be one of the busiest if not the busiest week of the year on the Parkway Also, some locations like Maggie Valley, and Mars Hill will begin to see colors peaking late this week.

Asheville and surrounding valleys located at 2000’ will begin to see peak fall color from October 28th-November 3rd. This week is when the majority of the population in WNC will see trees peaking in their backyards. Locations like Franklin, Waynesville, & even portions of Hendersonville will see peak color during this week. If you are planning a trip to Asheville, this is the week to book.

Locations like Brevard & Lenoir tend to peak a few days after Asheville, and therefore I am expecting their peak to be in the coming days after November 3rd. As you progress towards Charlotte, and elevation decreases, the peak day will progressively get later. This map is to help you plan your trip to the mountains of WNC, and decide where you should travel on your stay to see vibrant leaf color!

Science Behind Why Leaves Change Color

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Why Will Colors Be Vibrant This Year?

There are several factors in which a meteorologist has to consider when putting together a fall foliage outlook. One main thing to take into consideration it the amount of rainfall that the area has received leading up to Autumn. During the beginning of the year, we were on pace with our record year last year, but we have since fallen off that pace. This early rainfall allowed tree canopies to flourish, and there is a healthy crop of leaves on trees around WNC currently. With limited rainfall over the past two month, this has set the leaf crop up to die at typical dates. I do not expect an early or a late change, but I do expect a vibrant one with lots of florescent colors.

Forecast Caveats

Tropical moisture can throw off a leaf forecast, and that cannot be rule out over the next 21 days. These storms effectively blow leaves off of trees, and the excessive moisture they bring can dampen colors somewhat. This is an unknown moving into mid October, and is the reasoning behind my rating of 7.5 for this year on the Vibrancy Scale, compared to a 8 or 9.

Another caveat is cooler temperatures during the evenings and nights. Temperatures need to dip into the 50’s on a regular basis for trees to begin to close off leaves access. Below you can see the most recent 15 day forecast for temperatures around WNC. A pattern change is coming, and cooler temperatures are on the way! Several models indicate that highs next week will only be in the 70’s around Asheville and then we will dip into the low to mid 50’s each evening. This would be perfect weather in my opinion for leaves to begin the process of change.

Conclusion

I am projecting fall color to be right on time this year compared to average, and I am expecting fall color to be a 7.5/10 on the Vibrancy Scale. There are a few things that could spoil this forecast, such as an impactful tropical system that moves through WNC, between now and the peak date for your location. I will keep you updated on the progression, and make changes to this forecast if necessary!

Plan Your Excursion

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Where To Watch Fall Color Change In WNC?

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Hunter Ward

October 26, 2019

Wind Gusts Of 40mph+ Are Possible This Afternoon/Evening Around WNC

Hunter Ward

October 26, 2019

As the front passes through and brings another round of rainfall this afternoon/evening to the area, winds will also begin to pick up. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km model projection for wind gusts at 8pm around WNC. You can see that gusts over 60mph will be possible in the highest elevations along the NC/TN border. This will blow off most of the leaves unfortunately…

Nam 3km projected radar for WNC through Monday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Around Asheville…

Hold on to your hats.. the winds will be gusty here this evening as well. Expect winds to pick up in the next 2-3 hours and gust through the early morning tomorrow. Unfortunately, this will also blow off many leaves that are in the process of changing around WNC. Rainfall will also be likely this evening/Sunday am as another half inch+ is likely. Below you can see the Nam 3km precipitation projection for the next 24 hours. It shows 1” of rainfall through tomorrow am at the Asheville Airport.

Flash Flooding Is A Concern

Looking at the precipitation maximums along the Blue Ridge Escarpment 3”-4” of heavy rainfall appears to be possible through the next 18 hours in isolated locations. Below you can also see the HRRR model, and it suggest similar totals. This will effectively create nasty conditions across all of WNC this evening and into tomorrow. Please be careful when traveling around the area. Streams could rise quickly, and ponding on the roadways is all but to be expected.

HRRR Model Total Precipitation Through Next 18 Hours

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Hunter Ward

October 25, 2019

Wet Pattern Continues Into Weekend, Another Inch + of Rain Likely

Hunter Ward

October 25, 2019

Another front will move through WNC beginning this afternoon with scattered showers, and will persist through the Sunday morning. This front will absorb a tropical system that moves in from the Gulf, and somewhat stalls over WNC this weekend. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km precipitation depictions. It indicates that significant rainfall could be possible.

How Much Rain?

Well it depends on where exactly you are located, but the majority of WNC looks to see another widespread inch of rainfall this weekend, with isolated totals of 3”+ in some favored locations along the NC/SC border. Below is the European & GFS models projected precipitation totals through the next 3 days. As you can see a widespread soaking appears to be on tap. Unfortunately, this weekend will be the peak weekend for many locations on the Blue Ridge Parkway, and this rainfall will not make leaf peeping nearly as fun..

Drought Relief?

Yes and very much so! Below you can see the most recent drought monitor released Thursday October 25th by the USDA. As you can see, there is some improvement from last week.. but many locations still have drought conditions. In fact, most locations are still considered to be in a moderate drought across WNC including Buncombe County. That is likely to improve between now and the next update with this next frontal passage.

Flash Flooding Could Be Possible

Isolated flash flooding could be possible as excessive runoff occurs under heavy downpours. This could especially become problematic in higher elevation locations that receive more rainfall compared to valleys below. Please be mindful of this when moving around the area.

Winds To Pick Up Late Sunday

The winds will pick up late Saturday night as the mechanisms of the front finally being to push through. This could blow off some fall foliage unfortunately. Winds will gust over 35 mph in the valleys around Asheville, but higher elevations above 3500’ could see gusts over 50mph. Below you can see the NAM 3km projected wind gusts early Sunday AM around WNC.

Sunday Afternoon Choice Time To Leaf Peep

If you are looking for the best time to leaf look, it appears that the front will clear sometime in the morning on Sunday, and partly cloudy skies are possible into Sunday afternoon around WNC. So, if you are looking for a time to plan your trip to the area to see the peak color, then Sunday is your day! The morning hours could be dreary, but some blue skies will certainly be possible in the afternoon. Get out and enjoy it, and check out the WNC Webcams to see the colors change live!

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Hunter Ward

October 23, 2019

2019-2020 AshevilleWX Winter Weather Forecast-Volatile Winter Ahead

Hunter Ward

October 23, 2019

Volatile Winter Ahead With Average Precipitation & Large Temperature Swings In Store For WNC

Each year I try and put together a general idea of how I think winter could play out around WNC based off of history, and the use of long range forecast methods. This includes the observation of the state of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST), the QBO (stratospheric winds), Solar Max/Mins, ENSO (El Nino/La Nina), and other various atmospheric anomalies that play into the complicated equation of winter weather in the Southeast. These methods are not exact, and many variables must be accounted for.. therefore accuracy from time to time is limited, especially here in the mountains of WNC. So without further ado, below is my 2019-2020 Winter Forecast for NC.

AshevilleWX 2019-2020 Winter Forecast

Large Temperature Swings Expected This Winter

For Western North Carolina this winter, I am expecting average to above average snowfall in locations above 3500’, and slightly below average to average snowfall for locations below 3500’. I am basing this off of the belief that Northwest Flow snow will be more often this year compared to some other previous years, and that we will receive one or two moderate to large snowfall that will satisfy averages around the area. Below is the average annual snowfall for WNC per the NWS in GSP. If you extrapolate my percentages, you will determine that I expect around 10”-11” of snow total for Asheville this year. That would not be a blockbuster winter, but would fall in line with the average over the past 30 years.

Here is the average seasonal snowfall for the entire state of North Carolina per the National Weather Service. As I stated earlier, I expect one or two big storm for the Southeast, and that will likely satisfy or come close to satisfying many averages. It doesn’t take much for some locations! With a near natural ENSO (El Nino/LaNina Index), we will likely enter into what is considered a Modoki El Nino, which is rare. Only a few years previously have been Modoki El Nino years so we have very little to compare to.

Modoki El Nino

So what exactly is a Modoki El Nino or even El Nino? When long range forecasting, meteorologist will observe the sea surface temperatures anomalies (SST) in a particular region of the Pacific Ocean know as Nino 3.4 region. Depending on where the water is cooling and warming at, plays a huge part in where systems develop in winter, as well as the direction they move. The United States weather moves in from the Pacific Ocean, so where storms develop, and which path they take towards the US matters greatly. Below is a graph showing what a strong El Nino would look like in the Nino 3.4 region taken from the year 2015.

La Nina on the other hand is a cooling of the 3.4 Nino region. You can see what that looks like on the graph below from the winter of 2010-2011.

Currently the ENSO region is showing a near natural signal, and many experts believe that it will either stay neutral or move slightly positive through the winter. A modoki El Nino is a near netural El Nino where a large basis of the warm water is positioned in the eastern portion of the Nino 3.4 region. You can see below the current sea surface temps and in the Nino 3.4 region there is only slight warming. At the end though, notice how it is extending to the East. That is a sign that a Modoki El Nino could be on the horizon.

Modoki El Nino History In WNC

Years of Occurrence:

Winter (Nov-Mar)1991-1992 Asheville Snowfall: 1.5” Asheville Total Precipitation: 18.46”

Winter (Nov-Mar)1994-1995 Asheville Snowfall: 3.4” Asheville Total Precipitation: 18.56”

Winter (Nov-Mar)2002-2003 Asheville Snowfall: 17.9” Asheville Total Precipitation: 20.63”

Winter (Nov-Mar)2004-2005 Asheville Snowfall: 6.6” Asheville Total Precipitation: 16.35”

Winter (Nov-Mar)2009-2010 Asheville Snowfall: 39.2” Asheville Total Precipitation: 28.95”

These are the only years that an east based natural Nino (Modoki El Nino) has been present. As you can see, it’s a relatively new phenomenon. With that east based warmth, comes ample amounts of moisture that move into the Southeast. So, based off the numbers provided, one can assume that if the temperatures in Nino Region 3.4 stay consistent.. 15”+ of precipitation around WNC will be likely this winter. But will the cold air be in place for snow? That is the question, and we will need to look more at the winters of 2002-2003 & 2009-2010. I will observe the winter of 1991-1992 more closely because we were also in a drought at this point in time during 1991. With 1.27” in September of 1991, & only .19” of rain in October of 1991, WNC was in a deeper drought compared to where we currently sit.. but there are comparisons to be made.

Temperature Data Leading Into Modoki Years For WNC

Average September Temperature For Asheville:

1991: 67.2 degrees

1994: 64.6 degrees

2002: 68.8 degrees

2004: 66.4 degrees

2009: 66.9 degrees

2019: 71.2 degrees

So this tells us that we are leading into a neutral east base El Nino as we come off of our warmest September of all comparison dates. I think that trend continues too, and that a several warm shots will be possible this winter. That doesn’t mean that there will not be cold, but as I stated earlier, I believe large temperature swings will be likely. There is some long range model data to also support this warm idea. Below you can see the European Model monthly temperature anomalies, and each period shows above average temperatures for the Southeast.

NOV/DEC/JAN Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

DEC/JAN/FEB Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

JAN/FEB/MAR Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Will It Actually Be As Warm As The Models Show?

A word of caution with the Euro monthly charts, they are great guidance.. but on average last winter they were only right about 20% of the time. That being said, there does appear to be an increasing likelihood that this winter will be above average temperature-wise. So, a smart/easy bet for a winter forecast would be to go with warm and wet… but there is a wildcard this year.

Solar Minimum=Wildcard

We are progressing deeper into a solar minimum, which mean that solar flare activity is trending down. With less sun spots (none in the last 200+ days) this is the least active the sun has been since 2009. Remember the winter of 2009-2010? Almost 40” of snow fell that year at the Asheville Airport. Here’s an excerpt from Whats Up With That regarding how low solar activity correlates to shots of cold.

Low solar activity has been well correlated with an atmospheric phenomenon known as “high-latitude blocking” and this could play an important role in the upcoming winter season; especially, across the eastern US. In addition, one of the natural impacts of decreasing solar activity is the weakening of the ambient solar wind and its magnetic field which, in turn, allows more cosmic rays to penetrate the solar system. The intensification of cosmic rays can have important consequences on such things as Earth’s cloud cover and climate, the safety of air travelers, and as a possible trigger mechanism for lightning.
From Whats Up With That

High-latitude blocking is the key to getting cold air down to the Southeast. When you hear me talk about indices like the NAO & the AO, these are all measures of the degree of high latitude blocking in place. The blocking effectively creates a wall that deflects cold air from the arctic, down into the United States. How strong this blocking is, and where exactly it comes from, will determine how cold it gets in the Southeast.. and across the rest of the East Coast.

So we are entering a period of solar minimum that could rival any other period in the last 100 years. Does that mean record cold is possible? Maybe, but it really just tells me that this will be a unique winter, with several variable that will need to be properly accounted for.

QBO (Quasi-Binary Oscillation)

The last bit of information I will discuss before my conclusion is the QBO. This is a daily observation of stratospheric winds along the equatorial area. Detected over 50 years ago, these winds are measure by radio signal at various points in the atmosphere. By tabulating this data over the past 50 years in an increasingly large area, we have been able to tie certain atmospherical outcomes to either a positive or negative QBO. What you need to know here is that a negative QBO is known to correlate with high-latitude blocking. As you learned a few minutes ago, high latitude blocking sends cold air down into the United States. If a negative QBO stays persistent as projected by many, then cold shots this year will be likely.

Conclusion

So I know that I have detailed out a lot of information, but what you really need to know is that I believe that an East based Modoki El Nino will provide ample moisture that moves through the Southeast. At some point in time this winter, the high-latitude blocking will get in place, and put enough cold air into WNC and other portions of NC as moisture moves in from the Southeast, and in turn snow will fall. How often that happens is of course an unknown, but there are signs that indicate that the players will be on the field for a snowstorm this winter. We will see exactly how the Solar Minimum plays in because many experts are calling for a very warm winter. If we end up cold, or below normal temperature-wise, the Solar Minimum will have to be taken seriously. So again, I expect 1-2 large storms that will put many locations across NC at or close to their average yearly snowfall. Temperature swings will be frequent, and record daily highs/ lows both cannot be ruled out. It will be volatile. With this volatility I believe will come the possibility of frequent Northwest Flow Snow for the higher elevations of WNC. This will push those areas above their normal yearly averages. Asheville should expect around average snowfall, and as you progress east, the chances for a significant snow decreases. This is my best guess, and is only a forecast. These forecast can easily be busted or made by 1 storm, so please stay tuned for my daily forecast to keep yourself up to date on the approaching weather!

-Meteorologist Hunter Ward

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Hunter Ward

October 19, 2019

Tropical Storm Nestor To Bring Over An Inch Of Rainfall To WNC Today

Hunter Ward

October 19, 2019

Tropical Storm Nestor has moved onshore this morning, and will continue to push towards WNC as the day progresses. Initially I believe only scattered showers will be likely, but as the afternoon progresses, those showers will turn to a more persistent heavy rain for many. In fact, most models show a widespread 1”+ of rainfall, and that is much needed! Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km radar depiction, and that gives you an idea of when rain will move through. I believe that rainfall will increase around WNC after 3pm as the main portion of the storm pushes through.

Drought Busting Rain?

You could call it that, though it will not completely bust the drought that has built over the past two months here in WNC. Below you can see the current drought monitor produced by the USDA every week. There are slight improvements compared to last week, but some moderate and severe drought still remain, so a widespread rainfall event is welcomed!

How Much Rain Will Fall Today?

Below I have attached two short range model outcomes for total precipitation through this evening. The HRRR model only runs out for the next 18 hours, so more precipitation could be still be piling up on that model. All and all, a solid .75”-2” of rainfall looks to be possible for many!

Isolated Flash Flooding Cannot Be Rule Out

Some models indicated that a Southwest enhancement will occur as this system approaches the mountains. That would wring out excessive moisture, and favored locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment could experience flooding. It really all depends on where the main banding sets up as the storms transfers to the Atlantic Coast. Usually that main slug of moisture will miss WNC, but several models indicated last night and this morning that the heavy precipitation could move right over WNC. That will be the determining factor between us seeing .5” and 1.5”.

Another Frost Possible Thursday Morning

Looking ahead to the rest of next week, and it appears that another front will move through on Wednesday, bringing with it the chance for another Inch of rainfall, and then frost behind it. Below you can see the most recent European model depiction of temperatures on Thursday morning. As you can see, most of the area drops into the mid 30’s. This would bring the chance for another frost to portions of WNC, so please keep that in mind. I will keep my eye on this front, and update you when more information becomes available!

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Hunter Ward

October 16, 2019

Tropical Moisture Looks To Provide Drought Relief For Many Through Weekend Around WNC

Hunter Ward

October 16, 2019

A disturbance in the Pacific Ocean currently appears to develop further and eject north into the Gulf of Mexico. As this system moves towards the Gulf States, it could pick up some steam and pressure could drop. So what does this mean for WNC? Well some of our best rain makers come from the Gulf of Mexico, and right now we could really use one! The European model (shown below) shows this system making landfall as a weak Tropical Disturbance sometime late Saturday/early Sunday AM.

How Much Rain For WNC?

Through Monday the European model only shows .5” or so, but I believe those totals could change once models get a better hold of how exactly the system will unfold. Typically when tropical moisture moves in from the Gulf, Southwest flow enhances it as it reaches the base of the Appalachian Mountains. This in turn wrings out the moisture from a given system. Below you can see the most recent European model precipitation projection through Monday morning.

The GFS is also showing this chance for rainfall, but brings the rainfall in earlier on Saturday compared to what the European model shows. Below you can see that depiction.

So we are still kind of in a wait and see pattern for exactly how much rain will fall, but it appears likely that the system in the Pacific that currently has 50% chance for development will indeed affect WNC. This rainfall is much needed because of the current drought situation around WNC. Many locations are in moderate or even severe drought, and it will take several inches of rainfall to push them out of drought conditions… so hopefully this will come to fruition.

Frost Likely Tomorrow & Friday AM

Frost is likely tomorrow and Friday morning as brisk fall air moves into the area following the frontal passage that occurred today. Winds have picked up, and could gust over 40mph in some locations around WNC. Temperatures around WNC will drop into the 30’s and it will feel like winter tomorrow am! Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km temperature depiction for tomorrow morning and it shows a low of 38 degrees at the AVL airport.

Fall Will Be In Full Swing Following Cold Front

The fall color around WNC should reach a vibrant peak in the next 2-3 weeks, depending on your location. Areas above 4500’ will be peaking this weekend, and then I expect to see that color trickle down into the valleys below over the following two weekends. I will update my fall peak forecast map shortly. In the meantime, you can watch the fall color change on the AshevilleWX Live Webcams linked below!

Grimes Teich Anderson Downtown Asheville Live Camera

Affairs Of The Heart Downtown Waynesville, NC Live Camera

Cabbage Rose Maggie Valley Live Camera

T.J. Hooper Nationwide Insurance Brevard, NC Live Camera

Hunter Ward

October 14, 2019

Frost Possible Late This Week For WNC

Hunter Ward

October 14, 2019

After a frontal passage on Wednesday, temperatures will drop into the the mid to upper 30’s around WNC, and that will bring the first frost to many around the area. below you can see the most recent NAM model run and its projected temperatures for Thursday morning. As you can see, most locations will dip into the 30’s for the first time since May!

Cover Sensitive Vegetation

This will be a situation where you will need to cover sensitive vegetation around WNC. These temperatures will effectively end your tomatoes plants, and only hearty veggies like onions and broccoli will live through this potential first frost. We will again see temperatures dip into the 30’s Friday morning as well, so keep in mind that you will need to start covering or bringing in sensitive vegetation on a regular basis.

Limited Rainfall Expected Through Weekend

As the front moves through late Tuesday and into Wednesday, some rainfall is possible.. but nothing significant. In fact most models indicate that less than a quarter inch is expected for most through the weekend. Below you can see the European model precipitation projection through the weekend, and the chance for significant rainfall looks to be disappearing. Unfortunately, this will not help with drought conditions that continue to worsen around WNC. Some locations saw a bit of relief through the weekend, but not enough rain to pull any locations out of their current drought situation. Any significant relief appears to be at least 7 days away, with no big rain makers set to move through.

Cool Temps Will Kickstart Fall Color

Beginning this morning we will see a kickstart to the fall color! These temperatures in the 40’s will allow the process to progress, and the color change should be officially on for most trees in the area. Elevations above 4500’ should begin to peak this week, and then in the next 2-2.5 weeks we will see peak down here in the valleys around Asheville!