Weather

Chances For Snow Showers Around WNC Monday Night Into Tuesday Increasing

A strong arctic front will move through WNC Sunday and into Monday, bringing with it cold temperatures, and the chance for some snow shower development on the tail end of the front. This setup is extremely complex and I feel that models are just now beginning to catch hold of the solution.. so don’t be surprised if we see some snowfall around WNC Monday night and into Tuesday. Bear with me as I put together this difficult forecast, and attempt to navigate the various solutions that models are producing. Below you can see the precipitation depiction map from the most recent 12z GFS run. It continues to resolve an area of overrunning precipitation that is enhanced by SW upslope flow. This area of moisture develops over a nearly frozen column, and a rain/snow mix looks possible. These models has shown this trend for the past 4 runs, and is not backing down. As soon as high resolution short range models get into range, we will have a better idea of how this will play out aloft, and how much precipitation will actually be available.

12z GFS Precipitation Depiction For Early Tuesday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Here is the 12z 3km nam as well. It is not in range just yet, but you can see the precipitation beginning to bank up on the Blue Ridge Escarpment . I expect to have a more clear picture sometime tomorrow, but for now know that the possibility for some snow does exist. Join me live tonight in the AshevilleWX App at 8pm or shortly after that on Facebook Live!

12z 3km NAM Precipitation Depiction Monday Night Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Heavy Rainfall Expected Sunday Afternoon

As the initial arctic front moves through heavy rainfall will be likely for most Sunday afternoon. Around .5” of rainfall is expected, but some isolated locations could see more. Join me live tonight at 8pm where I will discuss this more in depth.

12z NAM 3km Precipitation Depiction Sunday Afternoon Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Storm Development Likely This Afternoon Around WNC

Models indicate that storm development is likely this afternoon in WNC.  These storms look to be slow moving and could drop over an inch of rainfall in insolated locations.  I do not expect them to go severe though, meaning hail is not likely.  Temperatures will max out in the low 80’s, and I am forecasting 82 degrees for the Asheville airport.

When? 

Storm development looks to initiate around 2pm-3pm, and these will persist through the evening.  Some locations may not see any rainfall from these isolated showers, but others could receive over 1”.  I do not expect extensive flooding from these storms, but pounding on the roadways cannot be ruled out.

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Above you can see the the HRRR radar depiction around 5pm this evening.  Storms look more likely north of Asheville, compared  to south.  Heavier rain and train storms look likely in Madison and Northen Buncome Co.  Please report any flooding that you see to Ashevillewx.