It's Snowing This Morning Around Wilmington, NC

Mping reports are show snow falling just west of Wilmington, NC this morning.. and many locations in SE NC experience a dusting of snowfall overnight. Below you can see the radar scan with an Mping report of snow just west of town. Scanning around social media, and you can see that locations like Lumberton, NC, & Whiteville , NC received a dusting of snow from this coastal low development. These snow showers will move out of the area in the next 6 hours, but it is still neat to see snow falling along the coast of NC!

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Mud Slide Occurs On US 74 In Jackson Co. West Bound Lanes Blocked

A mud slide has occurred this morning around 7:30am on US 74 in Jackson Co. Currently crews are assessing the situation, and clean up should begin shortly. It is undetermined how long exactly the cleanup will take, but the west bound lanes could be closed for a couple of days. Below are photos sent in by AshevilleWX viewer Amber Hannah.

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Detour

It appears that Skyland Dr. can be taken to and from Sylva, by way of Dark Ridge Rd., but I will need some to verify that for me. Please be patient and allow crews time to properly secure the slope before traffic resumes.


I-40 To Be Closed For The Next Week For Rock Slide Clean Up, Use I-26 to I-81

NC Dot has released a tweet stating that they will need one week to safely clean up the 500ft area where rocks have slide onto I-40. Then the traffic will be slow going with only 1 lane open on each side for the next 6-8 weeks.

Other Slides Cant Be Ruled Out

Rainfall will continue through the next day or so, but the front will finally move through Sunday afternoon. Winds will pick up around WNC and some higher elevation locations could see gusts over 50mph Sunday afternoon and into Monday. Slopes around the area are very weak, and high winds could bring down trees all across the area.

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High Winds Create Power Outage Concern

With the soil so wet around the area, winds that are gusting above 35mph will bring trees down all across WNC. Please be mindful of this, and know that you could lose power over the next 36 hours. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km wind gust map on Sunday afternoon.

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Cold Returns Next Week

Cananda air will move into WNC on Monday morning, and we will once again dip below freezing. In fact, some locations could dip well below freezing and into the mid 20’s. This will cause problems with trees that have been fooled into believing it is already Spring. I am worried that tree blooms this year are going to suffer, because much of March looks to be setting up to be below average. I have my eye on next week, and long range models are hinting at the potential for another storm, but thats all I will say about it for now. Stay tuned to AshevilleWX, and check back soon for another update!

Rock Slide Closes I-40 In Both Directions, More Rain On The Way

A rock slide occurred on I-40 last night around 7:30pm between exits 7 and exits 20. Both lanes are current closed at this point in time and traffic is being detoured on I-26 to I-81 near Johnson City. Please find an alternative route if you have plans to travel through the Gorge today.

Slide Area

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More Rain Moving In

Crews will not get any help today with rainfall continuing to move through the area. Showers will be heavier along the NC/TN border, so that will not help the situation either. I expect for that location to receive another two inches of rainfall today if not more. Until rokks stop moving, cleanup will struggle to progress. Until rainfall stops, rocks will likely continue to move. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km. I have circled the slide area.

More Slides Could Occur

The ground is extremely saturated around WNC, and that will only get worse over the next two days. Rainfall will finally move out of the area late Sunday, but it will take several days for WNC to dry out. Honestly the ground is as soggy as I can every remember it begins around WNC. Most everywhere you step in grass, it leaves a footprint. The creeks are all at bank-full and even a drizzle causes ponding on the roadways. Please be careful driving around WNC today, and report any flooding you see to the AshevilleWX Community on Facebook.

Heavy rainfall moving into slide area again

4”+ of rainfall has fallen over slide area in past several days





Slick Roadways Cancel Some Schools Around WNC

Freezing rain began across portions of WNC early this morning, and has made for a tricky commute around the area for many. Many wrecks have been reported around Henderson Co. where schools have been closed for the day due to slick roadways. The Reynolds & Roberson districts in Buncombe County will also be closed today due to slick roadways. Temperatures will climb into the lower 50’s later today as the frontal passage approaches, so if you have slick roadways in your area, stay put until temperatures rise. Heavy rain is expected to push through the area late Wednesday night and into Thursday with over 1.5” of rainfall possible in many areas. Some flash flooding cannot be ruled out with this system. Looking ahead towards the weekend, the sun will return! Temperatures will push into the 40’s each day with lows in the mid 20’s. Please have a great day and stay safe traveling around the area this morning!

Photo of wreck in Fletcher, NC due to icy roadway provided by Tamela Davis Rich Fanning Bridge Rd. at Hendersonville Highway

Photo of wreck in Fletcher, NC due to icy roadway provided by Tamela Davis Rich Fanning Bridge Rd. at Hendersonville Highway

Tax Time Is Here!

Beat the rush and schedule your tax appointment today with the trusted local pros at C.P. Kruse & Co. Give them a call at (828) 684-7374 or visit their website for more info. http://www.kruseaccounting.com

Newfound Rd. In Leicester provided by Cherrie Moody Grindstaff

Newfound Rd. In Leicester provided by Cherrie Moody Grindstaff

Many Rain Gauges IN WNC Top 100" Of Rain For 2018

Data continues to come in regarding the record rainfall year of 2018 in WNC, and I wanted to share some interesting maps that NOAA has generated. Below you can see the total estimated radar rainfall for the year of 2018. As you can see, many locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment received over 100” of rainfall. Even in Buncombe Co. some gauges in Fairview & Black Mountain topped the 100” mark. The wet pattern looks to continue into 2019, but hopefully we can experience some drying over the next week that will minimize flash flooding threats!

The Best In Town

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Asheville Closing In On All-Time Yearly Rainfall Record

All-Time Rainfall Record In Sight

In a year where weather records have fallen, it should be no surprise that Asheville, NC is closing in on breaking the all time yearly rainfall record. Currently at the Asheville Airport, meteorologist have recorded 73.97” of rainfall for the year of 2018. The record of 75.22” was set back in 2013 during an extremely wet year… but this year has be comparable.

More Rain To Come

more rainfall looks likely to end the year as another strong front looks possible before New Years. With only 1.25” of rainfall needed, a strong frontal passage could certainly drop that. Both GFS & European models show this possibility.. so I am going to predict that we break the all-time rainfall record! It is going to be close.. but I do believe that the front that moves through before New Years will drop enough precipitation. Check back here on Ashevillewx.com to track the progression!

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Mt. Mitchell Receives 34" Of Snow From Winter Storm

NC Mountains Dig Out

Mt. Mitchell is known for its extreme snow totals during southeast winter storms, and this past storm was not different.  34” of snowfall was recorded at the peak of Mt. Mitchell, and totals over 2ft could be found in the town of Busick, which is situated near the base of Mt. Mitchell at around 3300’.

How Did It Happen

Enhanced upslope flow.  Heavy precipitation streamed in from the southeast for almost 24 hours in this particular region, and as that moisture approached this particular region of the Blue Ridge Escarpment, it condensed, and slammed into the area.  As the moisture moved up the slope of the Blue Ridge Escarpment the air compresses and becomes almost supersaturated.  Then as the flow reaches the top of the peaks along the Escarpment, it bursts into the valley below.  This is how Busick, NC received 24” of snow.  The flow was extended from the SE for some time, and that upslope orientation particularly was enhanced by the region just below Mt. Mitchell/Busick.

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Mt Mitchell Effects

Our Friend Kevin Cox sent in a few photos of the effect from the storm at Mt. Mitchell State Park where 32” of snow was recorded.

Kevin Standing On A Snow Drift

Snow Blown Through Cracks In Door

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Snow Presumably Blow Through Rock Wall

Snow Presumably Blow Through Rock Wall

Snow Blown Into Lodge By High Winds

Snow Blown Into Lodge By High Winds

If you have photos of the small town of Busick, NC.. please email to Hunter@Ashevillewx.com

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2018 Now The Second Wettest Year In Asheville History

If You Think Its Been Abnormally Wet.. Thats Because It Has

As of 5pm on November 12th, the Asheville Airport has received just over 65” of rainfall for the year. That pushes the year 2018 past 1973, and into the position of second wettest year on record. With our wettest month ever recorded in May of 2018, its only fitting that we will make a run at the wettest year on record as we move towards December.

When Was The Wettest Year In Asheville?

2013 was the wettest year on record for the Asheville Airport. With 75” of rain falling that year, it will be difficult for WNC to eclipse that total, but it is not out of the question. With another couple of inches of rainfall/wintery precipitation expected over the next 3-4 days, the record is not out of the question, but it would seem unlikely.

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Moving Forward

The wet pattern appears to continue through next week, and with some tropical development possible.. more rainfall looks likely.  10 more inches of rainfall would be a lot, there would be more flooding on the way to breaking that record if we do.  I know that snow lovers around the area would enjoy breaking that record by way of wintery precipitation… and I guess we will see what December holds.  Check back with Ashevillewx periodically as we track Asheville’s progress towards the wettest year on record!

Set Your Clocks Backward Saturday Night

Fall Back

Remember to set your clocks back on Saturday night before you go to bed. Clocks officially set back at 2am, so if you have a clock that must be set, please ensure to do so. For meteorologist, we love it when daylights savings is over because it means that the weather models run an hour earlier. Weather models do not observe daylights savings time, and therefore a GFS model that begins at 10:30pm when daylights savings isn’t active, begin at 11:30pm when we are in daylights savings time. Waiting up that extra hour can be taxing, so I for one love to see Nov 2nd.

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Meet The WNC Fog Lady, Read Her Prediction For Winter Weather This Year

Meet The WNC Fog Lady, Read Her Prediction For Winter Weather This Year

Many weatherlore float around these mountains about this time.. drifting from conversation to conversation as if they were contagious in the wind. Old timers check their corns husk, and count the fogs in August to foretell what winter will hold. These notions have been passed down from generations, not because they are tall tells, but because there is a little something to their truths. Denise Hager Teague continues to carry on the traditions of the past, and has been counting foggy August mornings at here house in Johnathan Creek, NC for several years. Upon finding this out, I messaged her to see if she could send me some of her data.

Rainfall From Michael Causing Flash Flooding In WNC

Black Mountain Streams Rise

Water on Flat Creek on Black Mountain began to rise quickly Thursday morning as Hurricane Michael moved into the area.  Here are a few videos and pictures from the flooding. 

 

 

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Michelle BennIson provided this picture and says Bat Creek near Crest Rd and East Blue Ridge rd in Flat Rock,NC.  In all my 30+ years living in this area I've never seen this creek this high!

Near Owen Middle School provides by Cindy Sturdivant

Near Owen Middle School provides by Cindy Sturdivant

Flooding in Downtown Hendersonville, NC sent in by Jack Hough

Flooding in Downtown Hendersonville, NC sent in by Jack Hough

Michael Now A Category 1 Hurricane, Aims For Gulf Coast

Michael Now A Category 1 Hurricane, Aims For Gulf Coast

As of the 11am update, the National Hurricane Center has upgrades Tropical Storm Michael into a Catagory 1 Hurricane. As you can see on the visible satellite, hot towers going up around the center of Michael, and that will likely continue to strengthen it. Shear looks to relax one relax next 36 hours in the upper atmosphere, and that could allow Michael to make a run a category 3 status. The track for Michael is still a difficult one to nail down due to how it will interact with a trough moving across the US.

Gulf Coast States Prepare For Development Of Michael

Long range models have been keying on the possibility for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico, and now the NHC is giving Michael a 90% chance for development over the next few days.  There are a lot of factors to consider though with this forecast.

1. How will Michael interact with the trough that will be moving across the central portion of the US. 

 

6z HWRF inner nest radar depiction Wednesday Morning

6z HWRF inner nest radar depiction Wednesday Morning

2. How strong will Michael be when it makes landfall on the Gulf Coast?

3. Will Michael move through WNC after it makes landfall? 

4. How cold will it be after the cold front passes through next weekend? 

 

Michaels Landfall

 

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Above you can see the 6z NAM 3km simulated radar depiction.  There is a bit of moisture showing up in Mississippi and that would signify the front coming through.  This front will be what pushes Michael back out to sea.  So it’s a huge player.  Depending on how far west Michael moves will determine how much rainfall WNC receives.

Michaels Impact On WNC

 

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so models depict Michael moving directly over WNC (GFS).  Others (Euro) believe that the trough will be too strong and that will sweep Michael out to sea quickly.  So what were are dealing with is a classic tropical setup.  The trough sweeping across the US will sweep the storm out to sea.. but when?  Will the trough finally catch the storm when it reaches NC like the GFS states, or will the trough catch the storm just after landfall and sweep it out much quicker.  These are the difficult details to nail down, but they are crucial to the end forecast.  We will have a better idea in the next 36 hours regarding the development of Michael, so please stay attentive, and check back soon for another update!

Heavy Rains This Morning Cause Flooding On Highway 9, Landslide On Lower Sand Branch Rd. In WNC

Training storms have remained nearly stationary this morning or portions of Southeast Buncombe Co. and that had lead to flooding in the area.  A landslide occurred early this morning along Lower Sand Branch Rd. Off of Highway 9 near Bat Cave, NC, and flooding on Highway 9 have made travel in the area dangerous.  Please turn around, don’t drown!

 

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The radar continue to indicate that rainfall will remain in the area for the next few hours so please be careful if you have to travel Highway 9, some road may become impassable.

 

 

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Hurricane Florence Makes Landfall On Wrightsville Beach, NC As Cat 1 90mph Storm.

Hurricane Florence has finally made landfall in Wrightsville Beach this morning at aprox 7:15am.  Winds are estimated at 90 mph.   On shore flow has cause extreme flooding in places like New Bern, NC where numerous rescues have taken place this morning.  Florence is expected to creep towards WNC, and eventually cause flooding problems even in the mountains.  Rainfall totals could exceed 10” in some locations along the Eastern Blue Ridge Escarpment.  Ashevillewx will have all the info, so check back this afternoon for another video update!

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6:36am Wilmington Radar Florence Landfall at Wrightsville Beach, NC.