many short range models are beginning to show what the European models has hinted at for several days. Currently Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 is located off of the Florida Coast, and will begin to drift west into a more favorable environment for Hurricane development. With limited shear aloft, the atmosphere will be able to stack itself and a decent sized storm could develop. Below you can see the projected path for Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 and the projected intensities provided by the National Hurricane Center.
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Chances of Development
Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 is currently not a Tropical Depression just yet, but there is a 100% of development over the next 2 days according to the National Hurricane Center. This will likely bring flooding to an area that does not need any more water! River levels in the area projected to see the most rainfall are already very high from excessive runoff from an overly wet Spring in the Midwest.
Flooding Concerns
River levels are now projected to reach almost record high levels as deep tropical moisture moves over areas of Louisiana & Texas. Below you can see the river gauge for The Mississippi in New Orleans and the projected hight that it is supposed to rise to over the next several days. It could reach record high levels! This could bring intense flooding to the area. Flooding is already ongoing, and I believe that it will only get worse through the weekend.
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Model Projections
Several short range models really ramp up this storm and have the pressure deepening into the 970’s. That could be a Category 1 or 2 storm. The fear is that it will be strengthen at landfall and that will maximize localized wind damage. It is still too far out to tell how much development will occur with this system, but locations between Nola & Houston would be wise to prepare. Below are a few short range models images.
Will This Storm Affect WNC?
There is an increasing likelihood that sometime late this weekend or early next week that WNC will see rainfall and some gusty winds from the remnants of whatever develops. Below is what is consider a spaghetti plot off model solutions that show all the various paths that are being manifested. The main takeaway from this image is that there is great uncertainty as to how the storm will interact with a passing trough that could pick it up. If the trough picks it up quickly, it could move towards WNC.. But if the trough leaves it behind, the storm will continue into the interior of the United States.
I will keep you updated regarding how WNC will be impacted by this storm, but just know that it is too far out to tell at this point in time. Until the storm gets its act together, we will have a very limited idea on where exactly it will head.
