Tropical Storm Laura is currently moving across Cuba, and will reemerge in the Gulf of Mexico sometime tomorrow morning. From there, a great deal of uncertain remains, but a US landfall appears to be imminent. Many models suggest that after Laura exits Cuba, it could make a run at Major Hurricane status (Category 3 or higher). Will this affect WNC? That remains to be seen, but this article is to keep you updated on unfolding current weather events. Below you can see most recent spread of models regarding the track for Laura.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Large Spread Regarding Current Track
There is certainty that Laura will strengthen to Hurricane status as it exits Cuba, but what is uncertain is where the storm will track. Will it follow in the wake of Marco where some upwelling has occurred and the water is a bit cooler? Or will it meander along the warmest of waters and take the path of least resistance into Texas? There are still mannnny detail to be hammered out. What we do know is that the Gulf Coast will likely be staring down a Hurricane late Wednesday or early Thursday morning. Below you can see the most recent European model run, and the various tracks that each EPS member took.
European Ensemble Spread Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Where Will Laura Track?
GFS courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
Notice how that high pressure is placed close to WNC. That is the factor that I believe keeps WNC relatively dry during this event. That high pressure will be involved in the steering of Laura as it approaches the US. Depending on how strong it is, will determine how far West the storm travels. Like you saw in the European Model spread above, this storm could very easily still make a path towards Brownsville, TX. In fact, one could make a legit argument that Laura will follow the warmest water and move that way. By nature though, these storms tend to move towards the East when they move into higher latitudes. The natural force of earth rotation will pull the storm East, despite the high pressures effort.
When Will Rapid Intensification Occur?
Rapid intensification is when the pressure drops significantly in a storm over the course of 24 hours. A storm can be considered “bombing out” when it successfully records a pressure drop of 24mb in 24 hours. Laura appears as though it will bomb out as it reaches the open bath water of the Caribbean. So how warm is the Gulf? Check below the current sea surface temperatures from NOAA.
Current Sea Surface Temperatures Courtesy of NOAA
Notice the warm streak of water in the Western Gulf? That is where the most fuel exists for intensification. So in my opinion, the farther West the track bends for Laura, the stronger the storm will be. I think a TX Landfall could be more impactful compared to a LA landfall, because the storm will have more time over extremely warm water to get its act together.
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Model Spread
You can see below me the most recent HWRF simulated satellite image of Laura as this model sees it before landfall. Folks, this would be a beast of a storm if it unfolds as depicted. We have seen models go wild like this with storms before, and usually they are not wrong.
Most major models have Laura strengthening to at least category 2 status before landfall. Some have it strengthening even more than that!
Last Effects
Wood pricing around the US is at an all time high and this storm will not help that pricing one bit. Yes we will see recover efforts where this makes landfall, but the preparation involved will cause wood to been even more scarce. It will be interesting to see the long term effects of this storm, but lumber prices look to continue to move higher as demand increases even more. Check out the chart below, in the past month wood prices have nearly doubled in the US! This will not help!
Courtesy of Nasdeq
