Tropical Storm Nestor has moved onshore this morning, and will continue to push towards WNC as the day progresses. Initially I believe only scattered showers will be likely, but as the afternoon progresses, those showers will turn to a more persistent heavy rain for many. In fact, most models show a widespread 1”+ of rainfall, and that is much needed! Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km radar depiction, and that gives you an idea of when rain will move through. I believe that rainfall will increase around WNC after 3pm as the main portion of the storm pushes through.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Drought Busting Rain?
You could call it that, though it will not completely bust the drought that has built over the past two months here in WNC. Below you can see the current drought monitor produced by the USDA every week. There are slight improvements compared to last week, but some moderate and severe drought still remain, so a widespread rainfall event is welcomed!
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How Much Rain Will Fall Today?
Below I have attached two short range model outcomes for total precipitation through this evening. The HRRR model only runs out for the next 18 hours, so more precipitation could be still be piling up on that model. All and all, a solid .75”-2” of rainfall looks to be possible for many!
HRRR provided by Weathermodels.com
NAM 3km Provided by Weathermodels.com
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Isolated Flash Flooding Cannot Be Rule Out
Some models indicated that a Southwest enhancement will occur as this system approaches the mountains. That would wring out excessive moisture, and favored locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment could experience flooding. It really all depends on where the main banding sets up as the storms transfers to the Atlantic Coast. Usually that main slug of moisture will miss WNC, but several models indicated last night and this morning that the heavy precipitation could move right over WNC. That will be the determining factor between us seeing .5” and 1.5”.
Another Frost Possible Thursday Morning
Looking ahead to the rest of next week, and it appears that another front will move through on Wednesday, bringing with it the chance for another Inch of rainfall, and then frost behind it. Below you can see the most recent European model depiction of temperatures on Thursday morning. As you can see, most of the area drops into the mid 30’s. This would bring the chance for another frost to portions of WNC, so please keep that in mind. I will keep my eye on this front, and update you when more information becomes available!
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
