WNC Preparing For High Impact Winter Storm This Weekend

As we continue to progress towards Saturday, Sunday, Monday. and even into Tuesday.. weather models will continue to refine details.. but what does appear certain is that a large amount of precipitation will slam into a nearly or completely frozen column of air above WNC late Saturday, causing problems across the area. Currently, both European and GFS models still indicate that over 1’ of snow is possible for many areas in WNC. Below you can see both the precipitation depiction & snowfall totals produced by the most recent runs of the European and GFS models.

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GFS Precipitation Depiction Sunday AM courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

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GFS Snowfall Accumulation Map *Only A Model Forecast* courtesy of weathermodels.com

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12z European Radar Depiction Sunday Morning courtesy of weather.us

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12z European Projected Snowfall Map Only A Model Projection Not A Forecast courtesy of weather.us

Snowfall Total Still Vary Greatly

There is still a vast differential as to how much snow will actually fall.. and beginning tomorrow, we will begin to get a much better idea as the NAM 3km gets in range. The European and its Ensemble have constantly illustrated the likelihood of 12”+ in many locations. The GFS and its Ensemble have done the same. This tell me that we need to prepare for a large snowstorm.

Concerns Heading Forward

This snow will be beautiful and fall into a nearly frozen column.. which means it will stick to everything. The heavy wet paste that will fall is going to cause problems. It will stick to trees, power lines, and most everything else around the area. Winds will gust over 30mph in many locations during the storm, and some higher elevation locations could see gusts over 60 mph. This is an extreme concern of mine moving forward. If we have 12” of snow on trees, and winds gusting to 30mph, many people around the area are going to lose power. Therefore you need to prepare. There is no need to panic though, because you have time to prepare. Just prepare to hang out at your house Sunday, Monday, & Tuesday. Thats my best advice, and play in the snow! Check back later this evening for a video update, I will add it to the top!

Also check out the new live camera I added today of Candler/Mt. Pisgah.

Models Continue To Suggest Large Winter Storm Around WNC This Weekend

Weather models continue to insist that the northern and southern jet stream will interact this weekend over WNC, and a strong winter storm could be the result. Yesterday there was some disagreement among global models as to how cold the atmosphere will actually be on Saturday, but today there appears to be agreement that the column over Asheville on Saturday evening will be frozen and support snowfall.

How Much For WNC?

Thats a tough call right now, and below you can see the most recent GFS model depiction of accumulated snow. The European shows similar totals. It has been a long time since I have seen this type of agreement among models as we approach a storm. Not only that, but in agreement that 12”+ of snow is possible. I don’t want to cause panic, but 3-4 days out with all global models showing a very large storm is something to prepare for.

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*THIS IS ONLY A MODEL DEPICTION* 12z GFS Snowfall Accumulation Thru Sunday Evening Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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How To Begin To Prepare

You have plenty of time to prepare for this storm, but on your weekly store visit.. pick up some extra essentials in case you were to lose power. This snow will be a heavy wet paste like snow that sticks to most everything, so power outages are likely. It will be beautiful though! As we approach the event, I will go more in-depth about how to prepare for this storm, but right now it would be wise to get some extra items at the storm.

What Other Models Show

Below is a radar depiction from most every model I use to forecast by. As you can see there is agreement that a large storm is likely. As we approach Saturday, I will continue to update, but these show you a good picture of what is possible and what the radar could look like nationwide on Saturday.

GFS

GFS Precipitation Depiction Saturday Evening

European

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0z European Model Radar Depiction courtesy of Weather.us

ICON German Model

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ICON Precipitation Depiction courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

GEM Canadian Model

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GEM Precipitation Depiction courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

FV3-GFS Test (new upgraded GFS)

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FV3-GFS Precipitation Depiction courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

Impactful Winter Storm Possible Around WNC Next Weekend

Interesting Week Of Weather On Tap For WNC

With snow flurries possible both Tuesday and Wednesday, then the potential for a gulf low to develop into the weekend.. the weather around WNC is about to get very interesting. Many of the major models suggest that a large winter storm could move through the southeast next weekend, causing a multitude of problems. This is not set in stone though, so some caution must be taken when review the following model data. These are simply model depictions and should not be taken as spoken word.

Snow Showers/Flurries Tuesday & Wednesday

Backside moisture will stream through the area Tuesday and into Wednesday bring the chance for snow showers in the higher elevations (above 3500’), and snow flurries in the lower elevations around Asheville. A couple of inches cannot be ruled out in the highest elevations, and a dusting cannot be ruled out north of Asheville.. but this appears to be less impactful compared to the system projected to move in late Friday night.

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Gulf Low Develops

On Friday, a system develops over Texas, and begins to move towards the Southeast. This is aided by a strong banana high pressure that moves in tandem with the low. The banana high funnels in the cold air that could potential keep WNC as snow throughout the duration of the event. As you can see below on the GFS precipitation depiction, overrunning moisture begins to stream in late Friday night or early Saturday morning, and falls in the form of snow in many locations.

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6z Precipitation Depiction Saturday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

The European model has been persistent with a similar solution for the past several days. The European Ensemble has also been showing a signal for a large winter storm for the past 2.5 days. This can all change quickly, but a stout high pressure like what is being modeled, is what many expected to occur this winter and can lead to some very impactful storms around WNC. Below you can see the potential snowfall total map produced by the most recent GFS. This is just one model depiction, but other models including the European have been spitting out similar solutions.

GFS 24hr snowfall total For Dec8th-9th Only A Model Depiction! Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Here you can contrast that with what the European Models shows on these free maps that can be found at weather.us.

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0z European Snow Depth Map Courtesy of Weather.us

Main Takeaway

Your main takeaway from this article is that there is the potential for a very impactful winter storm to affect WNC next weekend. Nothing is certain at this moment, but models have a frozen column in place when a strong system moves in, and they are spitting at large snowfall totals. I am watching every model update, so check back soon for another update!

Rain Likely Next Two Days, But Temps In The Upper 60's Likely Sunday..More Flurries/Cold Expected Next Week

A front will begin to move through over the next several hours, and will bring with it the chance for scattered showers on Friday, and some heavy pockets of rain on Saturday. As you can see on the projected total precipitation map produced by the Nam 3km below, that locations in the Balsams, and around Highlands, NC have the highest potential to see heavy rainfall. Between .5” & .75” is expected around the Asheville, NC area between Friday and Saturday, but pockets of higher totals cannot be ruled out.

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18z NAM 3km Total Precipitation Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Warm Air Moves In Sunday

Temperatures in the mid to upper 60’s are likely all around WNC on what appears to be a beautiful Sunday after rain moves out. Models show showers moving out of the areas on Sunday morning, and temperatures rising. Lowers 60’s also seem possible on Monday with partly cloudy skies before another cold front moves through on Tuesday.

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18z GFS Showing Temps around 65 on Sunday Afternoon.. Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Cold Front Moves Through Tuesday

Another frontal passage will occur on Tuesday, and backside moisture will move into WNC sometime late Tuesday or early Wednesday. For higher elevations (above 3500’) this certainly looks to be snow, and for many even around Asheville we could see some flurries. Below is the GFS precipitation type depiction, and you can see that the higher elevation are cold enough to support snow. As we get closer to next week, the high resolution models will begin to resolve the exact details of this, but for now… backside northwest flow moisture looks like it will move through WNC Tuesday night into Wednesday. Have a great weekend, and check back soon with AshevilleWX to see what to expect for next week… and you can always check the 5 day forecast here.

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18z Precipitation Depiction For Wednesday Morning. Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Snow Flurries/Showers Move Into WNC Later Today And Will Persist In Some Locations Until Wednesday

Higher Elevations Prepare For Accumulating Snow

Models indicate that strong backside moisture will push through WNC as a front moves up the East Coast and strengthens. With frozen temperatures in place, locations above 3500’ should begin to see snow showers around 2-3 pm this afternoon. As winds pick up this evening, some of those snow flurries/showers will be able to make their way into the valleys below.

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I have been carefully analyzing wind profiles, and the 3km NAM continues to increase peak gusts as we approach the event. With winds expected to gust over 25kts, I think that there is a fair chance that Asheville sees a snow showers later today or this evening from the Northwest Flow. I can’t be certain on this, but conditions appear ripe for snow showers to break containment in the higher elevations, and drift into the valleys below. Taking a look at peak wind gust below, you an see how they have increased from the article I wrote yesterday. Gusts over 50mph will be possible in the highest elevations, and winds gusting over 35mph will be possible in many valley locations. 5-Day Forecast

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3km NAM wind gusts courtesy of weathermodels.com

Accumulation maps produced by the most recent 3km NAM suggest that even a dusting will be possible in locations outside of the mountains. Locations like Burnsville & Marshall will likely see heavy snow during some periods tonight and into tomorrow that could accumulate on roadways. Below you can see the Nam 3km precipitation map.

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3km NAM Snowfall Totals courtesy of weathermodels.com

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Those are some pretty hefty totals in the highest elevations on the NC/TN border. Even if you cut some of them in half, that still 8”+ in some locations. The winds are so strong, that it appears decent banding of the incoming precipitation will occur and push flakes even as far as Asheville. Possible even farther. Its really difficult to predict how far these Northwest Flow bands will extend out of the mountains, but seeing how strong these wind gusts could possibly be, leads me to think that snowflakes may even push as far south as Hendersonville. As snow approaches, you can use the Ashevillewx Weather Radar to track the incoming moisture. You can also view the Grimes Teich Anderson LLP Live Downtown Asheville Camera to see if it is snowing in Downtown Asheville. Check back soon for another update, and please report snowfall at your area to our facebook page, or email me at Hunter@Ashevillewx.com.

Snow Showers Possible Late Tomorrow/Tuesday Morning Around WNC

Rain Showers Likely Later Today

Scattered showers look to move in later this afternoon across WNC, as a front passes through. After the front passes, backside Northwest flow moisture will strain itself out along the Appalachians. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km run where those Northwest flow bands are getting their act together tomorrow evening. Interactive Radar

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3km Precipitation Depiction At 8pm Monday Night provided by weathermodels.com

Moisture appears to be abundant with this backside, and there will be a solid feed in from the Northwest for some duration. When forecasting Northwest flow snow, and if the flakes will make it down into Asheville, I always observe the winds. Winds of around 20kts or higher are need to push the snowflakes out of the higher elevations, and into the valleys below (like Asheville). When observing the winds with this upcoming Northwest flow, one can see that +20kt winds are possible. Therefore, there is a degree of likelihood that some of the snow flurries/snow showers could push as far as Asheville (or even farther). When winds gust over 35kt a lot of times locations in the Foothills will even see flurries. Below you can see the projected wind gusts for our area tomorrow evening per the 3km NAM.

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3km NAM Wind Gusts At 8pm Monday Evening provided by weathermodels.com

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Will The Snow Accumulate?

Yes, in many locations above 3500’ the snow will accumulate. Its hard to say exactly how much snow will accumulate, but I could certainly see some high elevation locations above 5000’ seeing 3”-4”. A dusting could be possible for some valley locations, though I am less than optimistic since surface temperatures are relatively warm. Below is the NAM 3k accumulation map, and as you can see it has some hefty totals in the highest elevations. Usually I like to cut this in half, but every now and then they verify. Needless to say, even if you cut the highest total into a 3rd, one location still gets 4” of snow in the highest elevations.

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3km NAM Snowfall Thru Tuesday Morning provided by weathermodels.com

Cold Week Ahead

Models Tuesday morning show Asheville in the upper 20’s and many areas above 3500’ in the teens. That will be the norm for next week, and looking ahead Wednesday will be the coldest day of the season so far. You can read about that here. You can also always find my 5 day forecast here which is updated daily. Below you can see the temperatures that the 3km models on Tuesday morning. Locations like Boone, NC dip into the teens, and Asheville hoovers in the upper 20’s. See European Model Forecast

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3km NAM Temperatures Tuesday AM Provided by weathermodels.com

Check back soon for another update regarding the potential for snow showers tomorrow. Until then check out the Grimes Teich Anderson Downtown Asheville Live Camera as fog clears and rain moves in.

Temps In The Low 20's/Upper Teens Headed To WNC By Mid Week

Both the GFS and European models indicate that a strong from will move through the area on Tuesday bring rain showers to most of the area. Following this frontal passage, Canadian air will spill into WNC bringing us the coldest temperatures of the season so far.

Model Disparity

The European model (seen below) insists that many locations on Thursday morning fall below 20 degrees. The GFS on the other hand has a slightly warmer solution that only allows temperatures to fall into the low 20’s. Regardless, this will be bone chilling cold, and will shock the system since it has been a while since we have seen temperatures this cold in WNC.

Courtesy of Weather.us

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Models Could Warm As We Approach

Many times these models are a little bullish on how cold it will be, but it is very noteworthy that we are seeing teens show up. My best guess is that most locations will fall into the very low 20’s and few isolation locations will be in the teens on Wednesday morning. Here you can see my 5 day forecast to see what temperatures will be like for this week.

Rain Arrives On Monday

These showers will be light, and shouldn’t cause many problems around WNC. Most if not all locations will be above freezing so I expect limits problems from the onset of this system. You can alway track incoming rain on Ashevillewx’s interactive radar. There you can see wind speeds, lighting, storm tracks, temperatures, and a multitude of other things that help you track the storm. As rain approaches be sure to check the Grimes Teich Anderson LLP live Downtown Asheville Camera to see the changing conditions. Check back soon for another update, and have a great Sunday!

Wintery Mix Possible Tonight Into Tomorrow Around Parts Of WNC

Retreating cold air will be met by invading precipitation across WNC this evening, and some locations could be cold enough for frozen precipitation to fall. These locations will mainly be east of Asheville, but higher elevations(above 3000’) in Henderson, Haywood, Jackson, Madison, Buncombe, and Transylvania all could see ice accretion from freezing rain. Sleet could also fall for a short duration as the precip begins. Toward the Boone area, I cannot rule out precipitation beginning as snowfall for an hour or so. The HRRR model (displayed below) shows a strip of frozen temps throughout the air column above Boone, NC around 10pm this evening.. but that very well could be false. Given that it shows the potential though, leads me to mention it.

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Traveling To The App Game

Please be careful if you are traveling to Boone for the App State game. Roadways leading in could be dicy, especially early in the morning. If possible, it would be wise to wait until 9am or so to head that way.. but I understand some coming from a far distance have already made plans. For game time, rain looks to move out of the area, and only a few scattered showers can be expected. Bundle up though because it will be chilly, and the winds could pick up by the end of the game.

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Looking Ahead

Sunday appears to be a decent day around WNC but it will be windy after the frontal passage. As we progress toward Monday morning though, another front will approach bringing the chance for scattered showers back to WNC. These should be light, but some backside snow flurries can’t be ruled out for many locations. As always you can check the 5 day forecast here.

Ice Possible Along Blue Ridge Escarpment Saturday Morning

Freezing Rain Possible

As we progress toward this weekend, a front similar to what we saw last week will approach WNC. Cold air that is being funneled in from the NE will bank up against the mountains, creating a shallow layer of frozen air at the surface. Some models have locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment pushing down into the mid 20’s Friday night as precipitation moves in, but that could be overdone. What does appear certain at the moment, is another heavy rainfall event. Upwards of 1” of rainfall will be likely for most areas Friday night into Saturday, so needless to say.. it will get soggy again.

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European Model

The Euro is the coldest currently of all the model suites with the approaching storm. It has the strongest cold air wedge entrenched as precipitation approaches, but the Euro is not known for its ability to sniff out Cold Air Damming events. That is why I am somewhat skeptical that freezing rain will be widespread. The GFS has temperatures in the mid 30 when precipitation moves in, and that would not allow refreezing to occur. So the main take away currently is that this is an evolving situation, and a few degrees change in temp could mean a big difference in the p-type that you see at your location.

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courtesy of weather.us

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More Ice Possible For WNC This Weekend

Cold Wedge Will Cause Problems Again

In a sort of rinse, wash, repeat, cycle.. it appears that another threat for ice will move into WNC early Saturday morning. Models are wavering with how strong the wedge will be, and that will affect how much cold air is allowed to spill into WNC at the surface. What does seem certain is the abundance of precipitation that is on the way.

Over 1” Of Rainfall Likely For Most Areas

Thru Saturday evening most locations will have an inch or more of rainfall in the gauge. Some of this could fall in the for of sleet or freezing rain, but with temperatures modeled to be borderline.. its difficult to make a call just yet on where frozen precipitation will fall.

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Model Data

Some models indicate that surface temperatures will hoover right around freezing in the Asheville area as precipitation moves in. Similar to the event we saw last week, these cold surface temperatures eventually erode away, but it takes some duration. If the precipitation falls heavy enough initially, it can take advantage of this frozen surface layer and re-freeze. So then the precipitation becomes sleet or freezing rain. The high pressure to the north funnels in the cold air at the surface, but temperatures warm as the low pressure approaches. Depending on how strong the high pressure is, compared to how strong the low pressure is.. will determine in a sense what type of precipitation your location will see. Below you can see the most recent European model depiction. As you can see, ice will move into many areas late Friday, and persist through early Saturday morning. If you received ice from this past even, its likely that you will again receive some form of ice from this next system. Check back soon for another update as this situation unfolds.

European Radar Depiction Saturday Morning 3am

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