Rain Showers Likely Later Today
Scattered showers look to move in later this afternoon across WNC, as a front passes through. After the front passes, backside Northwest flow moisture will strain itself out along the Appalachians. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km run where those Northwest flow bands are getting their act together tomorrow evening. Interactive Radar
Moisture appears to be abundant with this backside, and there will be a solid feed in from the Northwest for some duration. When forecasting Northwest flow snow, and if the flakes will make it down into Asheville, I always observe the winds. Winds of around 20kts or higher are need to push the snowflakes out of the higher elevations, and into the valleys below (like Asheville). When observing the winds with this upcoming Northwest flow, one can see that +20kt winds are possible. Therefore, there is a degree of likelihood that some of the snow flurries/snow showers could push as far as Asheville (or even farther). When winds gust over 35kt a lot of times locations in the Foothills will even see flurries. Below you can see the projected wind gusts for our area tomorrow evening per the 3km NAM.
Will The Snow Accumulate?
Yes, in many locations above 3500’ the snow will accumulate. Its hard to say exactly how much snow will accumulate, but I could certainly see some high elevation locations above 5000’ seeing 3”-4”. A dusting could be possible for some valley locations, though I am less than optimistic since surface temperatures are relatively warm. Below is the NAM 3k accumulation map, and as you can see it has some hefty totals in the highest elevations. Usually I like to cut this in half, but every now and then they verify. Needless to say, even if you cut the highest total into a 3rd, one location still gets 4” of snow in the highest elevations.
Cold Week Ahead
Models Tuesday morning show Asheville in the upper 20’s and many areas above 3500’ in the teens. That will be the norm for next week, and looking ahead Wednesday will be the coldest day of the season so far. You can read about that here. You can also always find my 5 day forecast here which is updated daily. Below you can see the temperatures that the 3km models on Tuesday morning. Locations like Boone, NC dip into the teens, and Asheville hoovers in the upper 20’s. See European Model Forecast
Check back soon for another update regarding the potential for snow showers tomorrow. Until then check out the Grimes Teich Anderson Downtown Asheville Live Camera as fog clears and rain moves in.