Beautiful Weekend In Store For WNC With Upper 50’s Possible Saturday & Sunday

A gorgeous weekend awaits WNC with mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures that push into the upper 50’s and low 60’s for many locations!  This will be dramatically different compared last weekend when it was miserable to be outside.  Take advantage of this and get outside!

Finally A Dry Weekend

If it hasn’t been rainy, it’s been cold over the past several weekends.. but this weekend will be a nice change from that.  Outdoor activities should go off without a hitch, and short sleeves will feel like an option.  

Cold Front Moves Through Tuesday

These temperatures will be nice, but it is November and the cold can return quickly.  A front will move through on Tuesday with minimal rainfall, but temperatures will drop below freezing again behind it around WNC.  Both GFS and Euro show this and the GFS even hints at a bit of Northwest flow snow on Tuesday evening in the highest elevations, but nothing is certain there.   

 

Rainfall Returns To End Next Week

Looking into the long range, models indicate that some sort of Gulf low will develop late next week, and could bring heavy rainfall to WNC once again.  The wintery threat with this storm at the moment looks minimal, but flooding rainfall looks possible.  Check back soon for another update, and have a great weekend!

Saturday Temps 3km NAM courtesy of Weathermodels.com 

Snow Flurries Possible Thursday Night Into Friday Around WNC

Backside Moisture Could Produce Snow Showers

Models indicate that backside energy from the front that is currently moving through, will strain itself out in the highest peaks of the Apps tomorrow evening. With winds projected to be blowing close to 20kts, so of these snow flakes have the potential to drift into the valleys below. You can see on the most recent NAM 3km depiction that a burst of snow pushes all the way out of the apps and into Henderson Co. I am not saying that this will happen for certain, but the fact that this model is alluding to the scenario, lends credence to the solution. Check back tomorrow for another update as the system moves through!

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3km NAM Radar Depiction Thursday Night Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Models Still Advertising Icy Beginning To Precip Thursday AM

European Model Indicates Ice Possible Thursday

The most recent European model indicates that surface temperatures will hover right around freezing as heavy precipitation moves in early Thursday morning.  Sleet and freezing rain are possible with this layer of frozen air at the surface.  You can see below the radar depiction of the 12z European model for early Thursday morning.  Cold Air Damming will be entrenched against the mountains as high pressure pushes the cool air in. 

Will An Precipitation Be Snow? 

Snow cannot be ruled out, and even a few flurries will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, so there will be multiple chances for snowflakes over the next 3-4 days.  Some precip on Thursday could also fall in the form as snow, but there is still a lot of uncertain with this evolving event.  On the backside of the front that passes through Thursday, the upper level low could also drop some snow on WNC.  Like I said, a great bit of uncertainty exist moving forward so stick with me and I will keep you updated as we move forward! 

Heavy Rain Likely Over Next Two Days In WNC, Ice Cant Be Ruled Out On Thursday System

Heavy Rain Moves Into WNC

Some reports of rain and sleet have came in this evening as some light showers have moved through the area, but these will move out shortly.  The main precipitation will move in tomorrow morning, and will ast through Tuesday afternoon with periodic breaks.  Many locations will see over 2” of rainfall and some streams could rise quickly.  Flash flooding will be possible, and ponding on the roadways will make travel hazardous, so please be careful.  Below you can see the most recent Nam 3k precipitation totals.  The Asheville Airport looks to receive around 1.8” per this model depiction, and many of the surrounding areas have similar totals.

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Total Precipitation Nam 3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Timing

Rainfall looks to move in around 6am or so, and will persist with of and on breaks through Tuesday afternoon.  You can see on the radar depiction below from the Nam 3km that some redevelopment will occur Monday afternoon, and a few rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out.

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Radar Depiction Nam 3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Snow Flurries Possible Tuesday Evening

Some snow flurries cannot be ruled out around Asheville Tuesday evening. Higher elevations will certainly see snowfall as temperatures crash following the frontal passage. locations above 3500’ will see at least a dusting in my opinion as the Northwest Flow kicks up, and moisture strains out along the Apps. the highest elevations could see 3”+ of snowfall thru Wednesday morning.

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Looking Ahead, Ice Cant Be Ruled Out Thursday AM

I am watching the following front as well for some ice development on the front end.  Temperatures at the surface as precipitation moves in will be borderline freezing, and some sleet/freezing rain cannot be ruled out.  Lots of rainfall though is possible though Friday though around WNC, as if we needed more..  Below you can both the GFS and Euro depictions of precipitation when it moves in.  The Euro is slightly colder compared to the GFS, and when the Cold Air Damming events occur, sometimes the models do not have the strength correct this far out.  Check back soon though as we progress, I will keep you updated.

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ECMWF Courtesy of Weather.us

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18z GFS Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Bitter Cold Temperatures, Some Winter Weather Possible Around WNC Next Week

Low 20’s Likely Mid Next Week

Models have been hinting at the first chance for winter time temperatures, and that looks as though it will come to fruition during the middle of next week. Both the GFS and European models indicate that arctic air will inundate WNC following a strong front. As this front moves through, the trough will sharpen up. As this sharpening occurs, the axis for precipitation could become more conducive for snowfall around WNC as upper level temperatures crash. Below you can see the most recent GFS model run, and it shows surface temperatures in the low 20’s on Wednesday morning after the front passes. This will certainly be a shock to the system for many.

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12z GFS Wednesday Morning Temperatures Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Some Backside Snow Showers Are Possible

The GFS indicates that as the trough sharpens, enough energy will make it on the backside to produce snowfall around WNC. It is still uncertain as to whether or not this will be a higher elevation (above 3500’) event, or if we will see snowfall in all the valleys around 2000’. Models have struggled with this setup somewhat so many things can change, and you should take these pictures with a grain of salt.. but the signs are showing for some wintery precipitation, and that should be noted. Below is the GFS Precipitation Depiction map for Tuesday Evening. You can see how it does indicate that some snow showers will be possible.

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12z GFS Precipitation Depiction Tuesday Evening Courtesy Of Weathermodels.com

No Certainties

A great deal can change from what this model shows. I see a good bit of rainfall on the front end of this system, and snow will likely happen when upper level temperatures crash on the backside. Models indicate that over half an inch of rain is possible on the front end, so prepare for a wet Tuesday next week.

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Showers Possible Thur & Storms Possible Fri

A front will begin to move through tomorrow, and could bring some showers to WNC. Another line of showers/storms will get its act together Friday as the front finally pushes through. Some locations could see over half an inch of rainfall from this system. Some lightning and thunder could be possible as the front passes on Friday, but the strength of that line is still up in the air. On the backside of this front, higher elevation snow showers still cannot be ruled out. I do not expect any significant accumulation, but a dusting or so above 5000’ is possible.

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18z GFS Precipitation Depiction Saturday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Morning Storms Still Possible Around WNC Tomorrow, But Pattern Change Looks To Be On The Horizon For Mid Next Week

Storms Likely Tomorrow AM

A strong front that will bring tornados to parts of AL, MS, & TN tonight, will make it way towards WNC tomorrow morning. Its a bit difficult to nail down timing exactly, but my best guess is that the line of storms will move through between 6am-8am. It could be a tad later though for some locations. The main threat in my opinion will be straight line wind damage. A tornado cannot be totally ruled out, but the timing and weakened atmosphere will be very limiting factors. In fact, I expect the storms to somewhat dissipate as they move over WNC. Locations farther SW like Murphy & Andrews, NC stand a much better chance of seeing damaging winds/tornadic development compared to Asheville. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km, and it has the line falling apart over Asheville around 8-9am tomorrow morning.

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18z 3km NAM Radar Depiction At 10am Tuesday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

I am expecting a half inch or more of rain for most out of this line of storms, but it will be moving very quickly so I believe flash flooding will be minimal. Some power outages could occur due to gusty winds, so please keep that in mind.

Another Front Moves Through Friday

Long range models indicate that another front will move through WNC on Friday, bringing with it the chance for more rain and possibly storms. High elevation snow showers will also be possible as northwest flow moisture streams in on the backside. Temperatures should get down close to freezing again for most locations in WNC, and it will feel winter-like.

Pattern Change Looks Likely Mid Next Week

A winter like pattern has been manifesting itself on the very long range model images, and many times that can lead to very cold temperatures in the Southeast. Some models even show something wintery, but it is still way too far out to speak in those terms. What you need to know is that cold temperatures look to be on the long range horizon, and you should get your big coat ready!

Severe Weather Possible Monday And Tuesday Around WNC

Strong Front Set To Move Through Southeast

An extremely strong low pressure system will move from the South to the Midwest rapidly, and that will bring the potential for severe weather here in the southeast. Tornadic activity will be likely tomorrow evening in parts of TN, AL, & MS… with EF-2+ strength possible. This front will race toward Western North Carolina, and should provide multiple rounds of storms. Below you can see the Severe Prediction Centers graphic for tomorrow severe outbreak.

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Luckily for WNC, the two pieces of energy that will move through will both move through in the morning hours.. not allowing for daytime heating to destabilize the atmosphere as much. Below is the SPC’s Tuesday graphic. They have indicated that a Slight severe threat is possible all across portions of NC/SC/GA.

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What To Expect Here In WNC?

Models indicate that two separate waves of energy will move through WNC over the next two days. The first will begin late tonight and persist through rush hour tomorrow morning. Following that, some clearing will occur as a severe outbreak begins across parts of the Deep South. Throughout the day tornados will be possible in AL/MS/TN as the front pushes towards WNC. It will arrive early Tuesday morning, and could very well wake you up. I expect thunder, lightning, high wind gusts, and heavy rain. Some isolated hail can also not be ruled out. Below is the NAM 3km simulated radar around 5am tomorrow morning.

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Monday Morning Radar Around 5am Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

After this moves out, some clearing occurs Monday afternoon. Then early Tuesday the second spoke of energy rotates through, and that will be the one with the most punch. Below is another radar depiction, this time of Tuesday morning.

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Tuesday Morning Radar Around 11am Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

How Much Rainfall To Expect

Many locations will receive over 1” of rainfall over the next two days, and some slight flash flooding could be possible. Below is the 3km NAM precipitation totals for the next three days, and you can see that many locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment will see over 3” of rainfall. Some isolated locations could see 5”+ of rainfall, but its hard to pinpoint those locations exactly. Around Asheville I believe 1.5”-2” of rain will be possible with strong storms Tuesday Morning. Check back as these storms approach, I will go live on Facebook if necessary to keep you weather aware!

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Total Precipitation Thru Tuesday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Snow Shower Likely In Highest Elevations Tonight And Tomorrow AM

Short Range Models Indicate Backside Moisture Present

Elevations above 4500’ this evening could see rain change over to snow showers along the NC/TN border. This backside moisture with strain itself out over the border counties this evening, and a messy night looks to be on tap. I believe that below 4500’ rain is the more likely precipitation type, but I cannot rule out a few flakes mixing in above 3000’. This moisture will mainly be confined to the NC/TN border continues, but some rain may push all the way into Asheville if surface winds gust high enough. I am not expected any snow in the valleys though, temperatures appear to be too warm.

18z 3km NAM P-Type Map courtesy of weathermodels.com

Gusty Winds

Winds will pick up as the evening progresses, and some higher elevation locations could see winds gust over 50mph. Around Asheville, winds could gust over 30mph at times, so please secure any outdoor accessories that you may still have outside. Below you can see the 18z NAM 3km wind gust map, and it shows high wind gust all along the Blue Ridge Escarpment tomorrow morning.

18z 3km NAM Wind Gust Map courtesy of weathermodels.com

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Will Snow Accumulate In Highest Elevations?

Short range models indicate that locations above 6000’ could very well receive a dusting of snowfall by tomorrow morning. Locations like Clingmans Dome & Roan Mountain in my opinion have the best chance to see a dusting due to their approximation to the NC/TN border. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slushy inch or two at Clingmans Dome on the webcam tomorrow morning. Below you can see the 3km NAM snowfall accumulation map, and it indicates that some accumulation will be possible. These maps are somewhat inconsistent though, especially at the start and end of winter when warm ground temperatures cause havoc. If you do see snow at your location, send me pictures at Ashevillewx@gmail.com! I will post them!

Rain Set To Move In Later This Afternoon

A strong front will move through WNC beginning this afternoon, and will persist through Friday morning.  Gusty winds, rainfall, and a few claps of thunder are all possible.

Timing

Models indicate that rain will move in later this afternoon between 3-5pm.  These showers could be heavy at times in some locations, and will last through mid morning Friday.  

NAM 3km expected precipitation courtesy of weathermodels.com

As you can see if the map above, some location a may only see .25” of rainfall from this.  So more of an annoying rainfall then anything else.  

Looking Ahead

Temperatures Saturday morning will fall back into the upper 30’s, and some locations could again experience frost.  Saturday afternoon though temperatures will recover into the upper 50’s to low 60’s.  Similar conditions will be seen around WNC on Sunday.  Following the weekend, another front will move through mid next week and will bring the chance for more storms.  Check back soon for another update and have a great weekend!

Trick-or-Treat Forecast, If You Dare

Not So Frightful Temperatures

A beautiful Halloween day awaits you today in WNC! Sunshine and mild temperatures are on tap as you head out to your goulish festivities, so have no fear! The real fright though will come with the following storm systems. Over the next week severe weather will be the theme, with strong fronts moving through the area Thursday night into Friday, and then mid next week. These fronts will bring some tornadic activity to parts of the Southeast, but I believe that the threat will be minimal here in WNC.

Halloween Temperatures.. Map courtesy of Weathermodels.com.

Below you can see the front moving in late Thursday night. This front will bring heavy rainfall to the area, and some locations could see 1” or more fall. Lightning, thunder, heavy rain, gusty winds over 45mph, and some flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Check back with Ashevillewx tomorrow, we will have a full breakdown of what to expect!

Front Moving In Thursday Evening.. Map courtesy of Weathermodels.com