Low 20’s Likely Mid Next Week
Models have been hinting at the first chance for winter time temperatures, and that looks as though it will come to fruition during the middle of next week. Both the GFS and European models indicate that arctic air will inundate WNC following a strong front. As this front moves through, the trough will sharpen up. As this sharpening occurs, the axis for precipitation could become more conducive for snowfall around WNC as upper level temperatures crash. Below you can see the most recent GFS model run, and it shows surface temperatures in the low 20’s on Wednesday morning after the front passes. This will certainly be a shock to the system for many.
12z GFS Wednesday Morning Temperatures Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Some Backside Snow Showers Are Possible
The GFS indicates that as the trough sharpens, enough energy will make it on the backside to produce snowfall around WNC. It is still uncertain as to whether or not this will be a higher elevation (above 3500’) event, or if we will see snowfall in all the valleys around 2000’. Models have struggled with this setup somewhat so many things can change, and you should take these pictures with a grain of salt.. but the signs are showing for some wintery precipitation, and that should be noted. Below is the GFS Precipitation Depiction map for Tuesday Evening. You can see how it does indicate that some snow showers will be possible.
12z GFS Precipitation Depiction Tuesday Evening Courtesy Of Weathermodels.com
No Certainties
A great deal can change from what this model shows. I see a good bit of rainfall on the front end of this system, and snow will likely happen when upper level temperatures crash on the backside. Models indicate that over half an inch of rain is possible on the front end, so prepare for a wet Tuesday next week.
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Showers Possible Thur & Storms Possible Fri
A front will begin to move through tomorrow, and could bring some showers to WNC. Another line of showers/storms will get its act together Friday as the front finally pushes through. Some locations could see over half an inch of rainfall from this system. Some lightning and thunder could be possible as the front passes on Friday, but the strength of that line is still up in the air. On the backside of this front, higher elevation snow showers still cannot be ruled out. I do not expect any significant accumulation, but a dusting or so above 5000’ is possible.
18z GFS Precipitation Depiction Saturday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
