Heavy Rain Moves Into WNC

Some reports of rain and sleet have came in this evening as some light showers have moved through the area, but these will move out shortly. The main precipitation will move in tomorrow morning, and will ast through Tuesday afternoon with periodic breaks. Many locations will see over 2” of rainfall and some streams could rise quickly. Flash flooding will be possible, and ponding on the roadways will make travel hazardous, so please be careful. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3k precipitation totals. The Asheville Airport looks to receive around 1.8” per this model depiction, and many of the surrounding areas have similar totals.

Total Precipitation Nam 3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Timing

Rainfall looks to move in around 6am or so, and will persist with of and on breaks through Tuesday afternoon. You can see on the radar depiction below from the Nam 3km that some redevelopment will occur Monday afternoon, and a few rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out.

Radar Depiction Nam 3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Snow Flurries Possible Tuesday Evening

Some snow flurries cannot be ruled out around Asheville Tuesday evening. Higher elevations will certainly see snowfall as temperatures crash following the frontal passage. locations above 3500’ will see at least a dusting in my opinion as the Northwest Flow kicks up, and moisture strains out along the Apps. the highest elevations could see 3”+ of snowfall thru Wednesday morning.

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Looking Ahead, Ice Cant Be Ruled Out Thursday AM

I am watching the following front as well for some ice development on the front end. Temperatures at the surface as precipitation moves in will be borderline freezing, and some sleet/freezing rain cannot be ruled out. Lots of rainfall though is possible though Friday though around WNC, as if we needed more.. Below you can both the GFS and Euro depictions of precipitation when it moves in. The Euro is slightly colder compared to the GFS, and when the Cold Air Damming events occur, sometimes the models do not have the strength correct this far out. Check back soon though as we progress, I will keep you updated.