Short Range Models Indicate Backside Moisture Present
Elevations above 4500’ this evening could see rain change over to snow showers along the NC/TN border. This backside moisture with strain itself out over the border counties this evening, and a messy night looks to be on tap. I believe that below 4500’ rain is the more likely precipitation type, but I cannot rule out a few flakes mixing in above 3000’. This moisture will mainly be confined to the NC/TN border continues, but some rain may push all the way into Asheville if surface winds gust high enough. I am not expected any snow in the valleys though, temperatures appear to be too warm.
18z 3km NAM P-Type Map courtesy of weathermodels.com
Gusty Winds
Winds will pick up as the evening progresses, and some higher elevation locations could see winds gust over 50mph. Around Asheville, winds could gust over 30mph at times, so please secure any outdoor accessories that you may still have outside. Below you can see the 18z NAM 3km wind gust map, and it shows high wind gust all along the Blue Ridge Escarpment tomorrow morning.
18z 3km NAM Wind Gust Map courtesy of weathermodels.com
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Will Snow Accumulate In Highest Elevations?
Short range models indicate that locations above 6000’ could very well receive a dusting of snowfall by tomorrow morning. Locations like Clingmans Dome & Roan Mountain in my opinion have the best chance to see a dusting due to their approximation to the NC/TN border. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slushy inch or two at Clingmans Dome on the webcam tomorrow morning. Below you can see the 3km NAM snowfall accumulation map, and it indicates that some accumulation will be possible. These maps are somewhat inconsistent though, especially at the start and end of winter when warm ground temperatures cause havoc. If you do see snow at your location, send me pictures at Ashevillewx@gmail.com! I will post them!
