Snow Showers Possible Late Tomorrow/Tuesday Morning Around WNC

Rain Showers Likely Later Today

Scattered showers look to move in later this afternoon across WNC, as a front passes through. After the front passes, backside Northwest flow moisture will strain itself out along the Appalachians. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km run where those Northwest flow bands are getting their act together tomorrow evening. Interactive Radar

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3km Precipitation Depiction At 8pm Monday Night provided by weathermodels.com

Moisture appears to be abundant with this backside, and there will be a solid feed in from the Northwest for some duration. When forecasting Northwest flow snow, and if the flakes will make it down into Asheville, I always observe the winds. Winds of around 20kts or higher are need to push the snowflakes out of the higher elevations, and into the valleys below (like Asheville). When observing the winds with this upcoming Northwest flow, one can see that +20kt winds are possible. Therefore, there is a degree of likelihood that some of the snow flurries/snow showers could push as far as Asheville (or even farther). When winds gust over 35kt a lot of times locations in the Foothills will even see flurries. Below you can see the projected wind gusts for our area tomorrow evening per the 3km NAM.

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3km NAM Wind Gusts At 8pm Monday Evening provided by weathermodels.com

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Will The Snow Accumulate?

Yes, in many locations above 3500’ the snow will accumulate. Its hard to say exactly how much snow will accumulate, but I could certainly see some high elevation locations above 5000’ seeing 3”-4”. A dusting could be possible for some valley locations, though I am less than optimistic since surface temperatures are relatively warm. Below is the NAM 3k accumulation map, and as you can see it has some hefty totals in the highest elevations. Usually I like to cut this in half, but every now and then they verify. Needless to say, even if you cut the highest total into a 3rd, one location still gets 4” of snow in the highest elevations.

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3km NAM Snowfall Thru Tuesday Morning provided by weathermodels.com

Cold Week Ahead

Models Tuesday morning show Asheville in the upper 20’s and many areas above 3500’ in the teens. That will be the norm for next week, and looking ahead Wednesday will be the coldest day of the season so far. You can read about that here. You can also always find my 5 day forecast here which is updated daily. Below you can see the temperatures that the 3km models on Tuesday morning. Locations like Boone, NC dip into the teens, and Asheville hoovers in the upper 20’s. See European Model Forecast

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3km NAM Temperatures Tuesday AM Provided by weathermodels.com

Check back soon for another update regarding the potential for snow showers tomorrow. Until then check out the Grimes Teich Anderson Downtown Asheville Live Camera as fog clears and rain moves in.

Temps In The Low 20's/Upper Teens Headed To WNC By Mid Week

Both the GFS and European models indicate that a strong from will move through the area on Tuesday bring rain showers to most of the area. Following this frontal passage, Canadian air will spill into WNC bringing us the coldest temperatures of the season so far.

Model Disparity

The European model (seen below) insists that many locations on Thursday morning fall below 20 degrees. The GFS on the other hand has a slightly warmer solution that only allows temperatures to fall into the low 20’s. Regardless, this will be bone chilling cold, and will shock the system since it has been a while since we have seen temperatures this cold in WNC.

Courtesy of Weather.us

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Models Could Warm As We Approach

Many times these models are a little bullish on how cold it will be, but it is very noteworthy that we are seeing teens show up. My best guess is that most locations will fall into the very low 20’s and few isolation locations will be in the teens on Wednesday morning. Here you can see my 5 day forecast to see what temperatures will be like for this week.

Rain Arrives On Monday

These showers will be light, and shouldn’t cause many problems around WNC. Most if not all locations will be above freezing so I expect limits problems from the onset of this system. You can alway track incoming rain on Ashevillewx’s interactive radar. There you can see wind speeds, lighting, storm tracks, temperatures, and a multitude of other things that help you track the storm. As rain approaches be sure to check the Grimes Teich Anderson LLP live Downtown Asheville Camera to see the changing conditions. Check back soon for another update, and have a great Sunday!

Wintery Mix Possible Tonight Into Tomorrow Around Parts Of WNC

Retreating cold air will be met by invading precipitation across WNC this evening, and some locations could be cold enough for frozen precipitation to fall. These locations will mainly be east of Asheville, but higher elevations(above 3000’) in Henderson, Haywood, Jackson, Madison, Buncombe, and Transylvania all could see ice accretion from freezing rain. Sleet could also fall for a short duration as the precip begins. Toward the Boone area, I cannot rule out precipitation beginning as snowfall for an hour or so. The HRRR model (displayed below) shows a strip of frozen temps throughout the air column above Boone, NC around 10pm this evening.. but that very well could be false. Given that it shows the potential though, leads me to mention it.

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Traveling To The App Game

Please be careful if you are traveling to Boone for the App State game. Roadways leading in could be dicy, especially early in the morning. If possible, it would be wise to wait until 9am or so to head that way.. but I understand some coming from a far distance have already made plans. For game time, rain looks to move out of the area, and only a few scattered showers can be expected. Bundle up though because it will be chilly, and the winds could pick up by the end of the game.

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Looking Ahead

Sunday appears to be a decent day around WNC but it will be windy after the frontal passage. As we progress toward Monday morning though, another front will approach bringing the chance for scattered showers back to WNC. These should be light, but some backside snow flurries can’t be ruled out for many locations. As always you can check the 5 day forecast here.

Ice Possible Along Blue Ridge Escarpment Saturday Morning

Freezing Rain Possible

As we progress toward this weekend, a front similar to what we saw last week will approach WNC. Cold air that is being funneled in from the NE will bank up against the mountains, creating a shallow layer of frozen air at the surface. Some models have locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment pushing down into the mid 20’s Friday night as precipitation moves in, but that could be overdone. What does appear certain at the moment, is another heavy rainfall event. Upwards of 1” of rainfall will be likely for most areas Friday night into Saturday, so needless to say.. it will get soggy again.

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European Model

The Euro is the coldest currently of all the model suites with the approaching storm. It has the strongest cold air wedge entrenched as precipitation approaches, but the Euro is not known for its ability to sniff out Cold Air Damming events. That is why I am somewhat skeptical that freezing rain will be widespread. The GFS has temperatures in the mid 30 when precipitation moves in, and that would not allow refreezing to occur. So the main take away currently is that this is an evolving situation, and a few degrees change in temp could mean a big difference in the p-type that you see at your location.

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courtesy of weather.us

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More Ice Possible For WNC This Weekend

Cold Wedge Will Cause Problems Again

In a sort of rinse, wash, repeat, cycle.. it appears that another threat for ice will move into WNC early Saturday morning. Models are wavering with how strong the wedge will be, and that will affect how much cold air is allowed to spill into WNC at the surface. What does seem certain is the abundance of precipitation that is on the way.

Over 1” Of Rainfall Likely For Most Areas

Thru Saturday evening most locations will have an inch or more of rainfall in the gauge. Some of this could fall in the for of sleet or freezing rain, but with temperatures modeled to be borderline.. its difficult to make a call just yet on where frozen precipitation will fall.

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Model Data

Some models indicate that surface temperatures will hoover right around freezing in the Asheville area as precipitation moves in. Similar to the event we saw last week, these cold surface temperatures eventually erode away, but it takes some duration. If the precipitation falls heavy enough initially, it can take advantage of this frozen surface layer and re-freeze. So then the precipitation becomes sleet or freezing rain. The high pressure to the north funnels in the cold air at the surface, but temperatures warm as the low pressure approaches. Depending on how strong the high pressure is, compared to how strong the low pressure is.. will determine in a sense what type of precipitation your location will see. Below you can see the most recent European model depiction. As you can see, ice will move into many areas late Friday, and persist through early Saturday morning. If you received ice from this past even, its likely that you will again receive some form of ice from this next system. Check back soon for another update as this situation unfolds.

European Radar Depiction Saturday Morning 3am

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Beautiful Weekend In Store For WNC With Upper 50’s Possible Saturday & Sunday

A gorgeous weekend awaits WNC with mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures that push into the upper 50’s and low 60’s for many locations!  This will be dramatically different compared last weekend when it was miserable to be outside.  Take advantage of this and get outside!

Finally A Dry Weekend

If it hasn’t been rainy, it’s been cold over the past several weekends.. but this weekend will be a nice change from that.  Outdoor activities should go off without a hitch, and short sleeves will feel like an option.  

Cold Front Moves Through Tuesday

These temperatures will be nice, but it is November and the cold can return quickly.  A front will move through on Tuesday with minimal rainfall, but temperatures will drop below freezing again behind it around WNC.  Both GFS and Euro show this and the GFS even hints at a bit of Northwest flow snow on Tuesday evening in the highest elevations, but nothing is certain there.   

 

Rainfall Returns To End Next Week

Looking into the long range, models indicate that some sort of Gulf low will develop late next week, and could bring heavy rainfall to WNC once again.  The wintery threat with this storm at the moment looks minimal, but flooding rainfall looks possible.  Check back soon for another update, and have a great weekend!

Saturday Temps 3km NAM courtesy of Weathermodels.com 

Snow Flurries Possible Thursday Night Into Friday Around WNC

Backside Moisture Could Produce Snow Showers

Models indicate that backside energy from the front that is currently moving through, will strain itself out in the highest peaks of the Apps tomorrow evening. With winds projected to be blowing close to 20kts, so of these snow flakes have the potential to drift into the valleys below. You can see on the most recent NAM 3km depiction that a burst of snow pushes all the way out of the apps and into Henderson Co. I am not saying that this will happen for certain, but the fact that this model is alluding to the scenario, lends credence to the solution. Check back tomorrow for another update as the system moves through!

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3km NAM Radar Depiction Thursday Night Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Models Still Advertising Icy Beginning To Precip Thursday AM

European Model Indicates Ice Possible Thursday

The most recent European model indicates that surface temperatures will hover right around freezing as heavy precipitation moves in early Thursday morning.  Sleet and freezing rain are possible with this layer of frozen air at the surface.  You can see below the radar depiction of the 12z European model for early Thursday morning.  Cold Air Damming will be entrenched against the mountains as high pressure pushes the cool air in. 

Will An Precipitation Be Snow? 

Snow cannot be ruled out, and even a few flurries will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, so there will be multiple chances for snowflakes over the next 3-4 days.  Some precip on Thursday could also fall in the form as snow, but there is still a lot of uncertain with this evolving event.  On the backside of the front that passes through Thursday, the upper level low could also drop some snow on WNC.  Like I said, a great bit of uncertainty exist moving forward so stick with me and I will keep you updated as we move forward! 

Heavy Rain Likely Over Next Two Days In WNC, Ice Cant Be Ruled Out On Thursday System

Heavy Rain Moves Into WNC

Some reports of rain and sleet have came in this evening as some light showers have moved through the area, but these will move out shortly.  The main precipitation will move in tomorrow morning, and will ast through Tuesday afternoon with periodic breaks.  Many locations will see over 2” of rainfall and some streams could rise quickly.  Flash flooding will be possible, and ponding on the roadways will make travel hazardous, so please be careful.  Below you can see the most recent Nam 3k precipitation totals.  The Asheville Airport looks to receive around 1.8” per this model depiction, and many of the surrounding areas have similar totals.

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Total Precipitation Nam 3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Timing

Rainfall looks to move in around 6am or so, and will persist with of and on breaks through Tuesday afternoon.  You can see on the radar depiction below from the Nam 3km that some redevelopment will occur Monday afternoon, and a few rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out.

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Radar Depiction Nam 3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Snow Flurries Possible Tuesday Evening

Some snow flurries cannot be ruled out around Asheville Tuesday evening. Higher elevations will certainly see snowfall as temperatures crash following the frontal passage. locations above 3500’ will see at least a dusting in my opinion as the Northwest Flow kicks up, and moisture strains out along the Apps. the highest elevations could see 3”+ of snowfall thru Wednesday morning.

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Looking Ahead, Ice Cant Be Ruled Out Thursday AM

I am watching the following front as well for some ice development on the front end.  Temperatures at the surface as precipitation moves in will be borderline freezing, and some sleet/freezing rain cannot be ruled out.  Lots of rainfall though is possible though Friday though around WNC, as if we needed more..  Below you can both the GFS and Euro depictions of precipitation when it moves in.  The Euro is slightly colder compared to the GFS, and when the Cold Air Damming events occur, sometimes the models do not have the strength correct this far out.  Check back soon though as we progress, I will keep you updated.

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ECMWF Courtesy of Weather.us

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18z GFS Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Bitter Cold Temperatures, Some Winter Weather Possible Around WNC Next Week

Low 20’s Likely Mid Next Week

Models have been hinting at the first chance for winter time temperatures, and that looks as though it will come to fruition during the middle of next week. Both the GFS and European models indicate that arctic air will inundate WNC following a strong front. As this front moves through, the trough will sharpen up. As this sharpening occurs, the axis for precipitation could become more conducive for snowfall around WNC as upper level temperatures crash. Below you can see the most recent GFS model run, and it shows surface temperatures in the low 20’s on Wednesday morning after the front passes. This will certainly be a shock to the system for many.

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12z GFS Wednesday Morning Temperatures Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Some Backside Snow Showers Are Possible

The GFS indicates that as the trough sharpens, enough energy will make it on the backside to produce snowfall around WNC. It is still uncertain as to whether or not this will be a higher elevation (above 3500’) event, or if we will see snowfall in all the valleys around 2000’. Models have struggled with this setup somewhat so many things can change, and you should take these pictures with a grain of salt.. but the signs are showing for some wintery precipitation, and that should be noted. Below is the GFS Precipitation Depiction map for Tuesday Evening. You can see how it does indicate that some snow showers will be possible.

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12z GFS Precipitation Depiction Tuesday Evening Courtesy Of Weathermodels.com

No Certainties

A great deal can change from what this model shows. I see a good bit of rainfall on the front end of this system, and snow will likely happen when upper level temperatures crash on the backside. Models indicate that over half an inch of rain is possible on the front end, so prepare for a wet Tuesday next week.

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Showers Possible Thur & Storms Possible Fri

A front will begin to move through tomorrow, and could bring some showers to WNC. Another line of showers/storms will get its act together Friday as the front finally pushes through. Some locations could see over half an inch of rainfall from this system. Some lightning and thunder could be possible as the front passes on Friday, but the strength of that line is still up in the air. On the backside of this front, higher elevation snow showers still cannot be ruled out. I do not expect any significant accumulation, but a dusting or so above 5000’ is possible.

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18z GFS Precipitation Depiction Saturday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com