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Beautiful Weather Saturday Leads To More Rain Sunday And Early Next Week In WNC

An incredible Saturday looks to be in store for WNC weather-wise with highs in the low 70’s, and only scattered clouds expected. Moving into Sunday though, clouds will begin to build, and an isolated rain shower could be possible before more widespread rainfall moves in Monday and into Tuesday. Therefore, the best day this weekend to get out and enjoy the scenery will be Saturday!

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How Much Rainfall?

Most models indicate that around an inch of rainfall will be possible for most locations around WNC, with isolated higher totals. I am not expecting a washout from this system, but a couple of rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible, especially Monday night and into Tuesday. Below you can see the most recent GFS precipitation depiction map.

12z GFS Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Recap

So a beautiful Saturday awaits you tomorrow, but clouds will build in Sunday along with scattered showers. As that front approaches, partly cloudy skies will turn to drizzle, and then heavy rain Monday night and into Tuesday. Between 1”-1.5” of rain is expected for most locations around WNC. More rainfall could be likely Tuesday and into Wednesday, but there is some disagreement among models currently at this time. Enjoy Saturday, and prepare for more rain early next week.

Temperatures Rose Over 40 Degrees Today Around WNC, Rainfall Return To Forecast For Friday

A drastic temperature swing took place across WNC today, where many locations rose from the upper 20’s into the upper 60’s. In many locations that amounted to over a 40 degree difference! This is Spring-like weather that we have been waiting for!! As you can see on the Olivette Weather Station and the below image, the temperature rose 41 degrees today.

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As a southeastern ridge pumps in warm Atlantic air, these warm temperatures will continue through the near future. Rainfall will move back into the area on Friday morning as a moderate system brings scattered showers in. Most models indicate that less than 1” of rainfall will be possible, so there is no real threat regarding flash flooding.

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Another System Moves In Sunday

Looking ahead towards the weekend around WNC, another system looks to move into the area sometime on Sunday bringing with it the chance for another round of scattered showers. Again, these appear to be somewhat light in nature. Total precipitation through the weekend in most areas will be less than 1” or rainfall, but I cannot rule out isolated pockets of higher totals. Saturday appears to be the best day of the weekend with highs in the mid 70’s, so get out and enjoy it! Check back soon for another update, and have a great day!

Dynamic April System Could Bring Snow To Mountains Or Foothills Of WNC

A strong upper level low will push though the Southeast on Tuesday, creating for an extremely difficult forecast. Small details in the upper atmosphere will equate to large changes regarding precipitation type that falls at the surface. I am growing increasingly more confident that at least the immediate Foothills or WNC right up next to the Blue Ridge Mountains will see snow fall Tuesday morning. Both the NAM & High Resolution NAM show this. The High Resolution NAM though blossoms the precipitation earlier, and therefore more hits the SW mountains of WNC. The 3km High Resolution NAM even shows snow falling around Asheville. We are beginning to see a Northwest trend on all models, but it remains to be seen how far Northwest the models move the precipitation shield. Below you can see the most recent model trends.

High Resolution NAM 3km Tuesday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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High Resolution NAM 3km Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Upper Level Low

The upper level low pressure that will push into the area is what is creating havoc with this forecast.  An upper level low will control the direction of motion with precipitation as its lifted into the atmosphere, and has the ability to make its own cold air through dynamic cooling.  When the upper level low begins to go negative tilt, precipitation can rotation around the upper level low, where it falls in a cold sector.  Many times this precipitation falls as snow, grapel, or hail.  Below you can see how the 3km NAM and the high resolution NAM crank back the upper level low towards WNC as it rotates through.  I believe that any precipitation that falls, has the chance to be frozen.

3km NAM 500mb Chart Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

12km NAM 500mb Chart Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

These appear to be very similar, but their precipitation depictions are somewhat different.  Below you can see the 12z NAM 12km radar depiction, and it shows the setup a bit more elongated, and affects the Foothills and even Charlotte more.  This would indicate a stronger Lee side development of the captured surface low thats developing and forming its precipitation band along a zone of truncation.  Wherever this strong band develops, it will likely snow.  It could be across Upstate SC, or WNC, or the Foothills of NC, or even the Piedmont of NC.  There is not enough data to nail it down just yet, but check back soon.. ill have another detailed update together before the storm approaches.

Early April Snowfall Possible Around WNC Next Week

The sun is out, its beautiful outside.. and I am talking about snow? Yes, unfortunately… Long range models are hinting at a strong upper level low moving through WNC beginning Tuesday morning, and persisting through Wednesday. Friday and Saturday look very nice around WNC with temperatures in the upper 60’s so please get out and enjoy it!

What Do Models Show?

Models show a strong upper level low capturing a surface low and enhancing over the SE of the United States. Then that low pressure bombs out off the coast of NC. With the heavy rate of precipitation and the favorable temperatures for snow aloft, accumulation cannot be ruled out. Below you can see the most recent 12z Euro and the coinciding snowfall map.

12z Euro courtesy of Weather.us

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12z Euro snowfall map courtesy of Weather.us

Here is what the GFS shows at the same time period. As you can see there is a wide variation among models, but a sizable storm does appear to be on the table.

12z GFS Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

12z GFS Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Great Uncertainty Remain

This will be an extremely challenging forecast moving ahead, but I will do several live updates to keep you informed. The main takeaway from this article should be that there is one last possibility of winter weather on the horizon, so stay tuned for more information leading up to the storm. Heavy precipitation looks likely, but what form it falls as will remain to be seen. Check back soon for another update!

Snow Showers Likely For Higher Elevations In WNC Late Thursday Into Friday, Lower Elevations Could See Flurries As Well

I have been watching the progression of this system for the past several days, and backside moisture looks to be available with this system to produce some backside northwest flow snow showers. Its been close to a month since we have had any type of northwest flow activity, but with this strong low pressure developing off the Atlantic Coast.. this appears to be a good setup for elevations above 4000’ to pick up a couple of inches.

Rainfall Likely Tomorrow

Rain will push through the area early tomorrow morning, and that could fall as snow in the highest elevations on the Appalachians. 850mb temperatures though will be moderate until late in the day Thursday when they drop below freezing. That is when the chance for snowfall will increase. Below you can see a depiction of the most recent NAM 3km run and how the precipitation progresses. Notice the popcorn type precipitation that develops late in the day Thursday in ETN. That will likely be convective moisture, and we could see some convective snow showers move into WNC late Thursday night.

12z 3km NAM Precipitation Depiction For Next 60 hrs Courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com

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Accumulation??

Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km snowfall map, and you can see that a widespread 2”-4” will be possible above 4000’ on the NC/TN border. a dusting cannot be ruled out in valleys below early Saturday morning.. but I will need to continue to watch model trends to nail down exacts.

12z 3km NAM snowfall Totals Through Friday AM

High Winds Likely Thursday Night Into Friday

As the low pressure undergo’s the bomb cycle and turns into a “bombcyclone” in the Atlantic, winds will really pick across WNC. Below is another image from the 12z 3km NAM showing the wind gusts possible early Friday morning. Things will feel like winter again with gusts over 35mph! It would be wise to secure anything outside before Friday night if possible. Join me live tonight at 7:30pm in the Ashevillewx app and facebook for an update regarding the most recent model information! See you then!

Clear & Dry Around WNC For The First Half Of The Week, Then Things Get Interesting Thursday

a beautiful beginning to the week is in store for Western North Carolina with plenty of sunshine! Temperature will push into the mid 50’s both Monday & Tuesday, but clouds will move back in on Wednesday as an interesting system forms. On Wednesday night, an upper level low will push through WNC, and some moisture will fall in the area. What form of precipitation remains to be seen, but I can’t rule out some snow mixing in. These upper level low systems are notoriously difficult to predict, and we have in the past sen surprise snowfall from them. The main takeaway from this article though is that I have my eye on a system later this week, and then warmth looks to move back in by the weekend. Below you can see the 12z 3km NAM precipitation depiction through late Wednesday. Rainfall looks likely, but like I said before, these upper level lows make their own cold air, and are notoriously difficult to forecast more than 48 hours out. I’ll be discussing this live tonight in the AshevilleWX App at 7:30pm, and then shortly after on Facebook.

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Warmth Is On The Way

A somewhat short-live warmup will be on the way next weekend, so start planning for it! A southeastern ridge looks to develop late next week, and that will push warm, moist air up into WNC for the weekend. Below you can see the GFS temperature spread for Saturday afternoon, and temps in the 70’s look likely! It will be a perfect day to get out and hike so make plans now!

6z GFS Temp Depiction courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Rain Moves Out By Early Afternoon, Snow Flurries Possible Around WNC Tonight and Into Tomorrow

As this low pressure finally pushes through WNC, scattered rain showers will make for a dreary morning commute around the area. After the front passes, winds on the backside will really pick up and gust could push over 40mph in isolated valley locations. Some northwest flow moisture will be available on the backside, and that could bring a dusting-1” of snow for the highest elevations along the NC/TN border. Snow flurries could make it into the valleys around Asheville, but I am still somewhat uncertain just how much moisture will be available. Below you can see the snowfall map produced by the most recent 3km NAM.

Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Gusty Winds Expected Later Today

Winds could gust over 30mph in many locations later this evening as backside moisture begins to stream through the mountain passes. With those winds, some flakes could be propelled out of the highest elevations and into the valleys below. There is limited certainty with this forecast, but some influence from a somewhat southerly flow at the surface could moisten things.

Rain Moves Into WNC Again Late Thursday Night & Into Friday, A Few Backside Snow Showers Can't Be Ruled Out

It seems as though we are in a rinse-wash-repeat cycle in WNC where we can only manage 2-3 dry days in a row. Tuesday and Wednesday of this week will be our dry days, and then Thursday afternoon clouds will move in along with another system. In fact, this will be a remnant piece of energy on the tail end of the recorded breaking low pressure that will move across Colorado, and then the Midwest. I expect to see severe storms all across the SE over the next 2-3 days, and even a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out late Thursday or early Friday into WNC.

12km NAM Forecast GIF for next 84 hours courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

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Northwest Flow Snow Showers Possible Late Friday & Into Saturday Especially In Higher Elevations

On the backside of the low pressure that moves through the area Thursday into Friday, some isolated snow showers could be possible. Winds could gust over 40mph in some valley locations, and I think believe that that will propel flakes out of the highest elevations and into the valleys below. The main takeaway right now is that northwest flow flurries/snow showers could be possible around WNC Friday & into Saturday. I will keep my eye on this and continue to update you when necessary.

Rain Moves Into WNC Again Friday, Some Sleet/Snow Could Mix In As Precipitation Begins

I hope that you enjoyed your three days of dry weather around WNC, because this weekend will once again be soggy. Another round of rainfall will move through tomorrow, and higher elevation locations above 3500’ could see some snowfall from this. I cannot rule out some snowflakes/sleet mixing in late tonight or early tomorrow morning around WNC, but the chances are much greater above 3500’. Roadways have been cold as of late, so it will be interesting to see how the dry air aloft comes into play as the precipitation begins, and what form of precipitation falls at the onset. The earlier that the precipitation moves in, the better chance there will be for some form of wintry precipitation to mix in. Dry air will also allow some wetbulbing to occur, and that also complicates the p-type forecast. Below you can see the most recent 3km NAM precipitation depiction. It shows those higher elevation locations seeing frozen precipitation tomorrow morning.

3km NAM Precipitation Depiction For Friday 9am Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Heavy Rain Expected Tomorrow Afternoon

Cold air will quickly erode tomorrow morning, and then heavy rain and even a few claps of thunder will be possible Friday afternoon as a strengthening front pushes through the area. Below you can see the 3km NAM radar depiction for tomorrow afternoon. Notice the strong storms around Haywood & Henderson Counties. These will likely develop in Eastern TN and push through all of WNC sometime tomorrow afternoon. Upwards of 1” of rainfall will be possible as these storms move through, and that will only be round one of the rainfall moving forward into this weekend.

Nam 3km Radar Depiction For Tomorrow Afternoon Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

More Showers/Storms Possible Saturday and into Sunday

Another front will push through the area beginning early Saturday afternoon and persist through a portion of the day Sunday. It remains to be seen exactly how long this front will linger around WNC, but some short range models have some redeveloping showers late Sunday. This would further flash flood concerns. I could see many locations picking up 2”+ of rainfall over the next 3-4 days. So an active weekend of weather is on tap for WNC, and minimal sunshine appears to be on the table unfortunately.. Check back soon for another update, and check out the WNC Webcams to see what the weather is doing around WNC!

Blossom Killing Freeze Expected Tonight Around WNC, Temps Will Dip Into Teens

Any trees that were foolish enough to attempt their bloom out process will be halted immediately tonight around WNC as temperatures dip into the teens at most locations. These type temperatures will be devastating to early fruit trees, and could really cause harm to fruit trees throughout the southeast. Peach trees in SC & GA will take a hit, as well as strawberry crops in the area. Its sad because this is nothing we have control over, yet many farmers rely on these trees for their livelihood. Below you can see the most recent 3km NAM temperature depiction.

6z NAM 3km Temperatures For Wednesday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Higher Elevations Could Reach Zero

Some locations above 5500’ could fall all the way below zero tonight as a strong arctic air mass entrenches itself. Lots of trees have bloomed out even at these elevations, and sadly this will have an effect of their progression this season. Wild flowers will be less vibrant, and blooms will wither and fall off.

Scattered Snow Showers Cannot Be Ruled Out Friday AM

There is some model disagreement regarding how precipitation will begin Friday morning as this cold front retreats and precipitation moves into the area. The European models is insistent that cold air will still be in place at the onset of precipitation and a dusting will be possible around WNC, but the GFS says that that cold wedge will retreat before meaningful precipitation moves into WNC. I have my eye on Friday morning and will update you when the picture becomes a bit more clear!