next Sunday (March 10th) set your clocks forward!
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Chances For Snow Showers Around WNC Monday Night Into Tuesday Increasing
A strong arctic front will move through WNC Sunday and into Monday, bringing with it cold temperatures, and the chance for some snow shower development on the tail end of the front. This setup is extremely complex and I feel that models are just now beginning to catch hold of the solution.. so don’t be surprised if we see some snowfall around WNC Monday night and into Tuesday. Bear with me as I put together this difficult forecast, and attempt to navigate the various solutions that models are producing. Below you can see the precipitation depiction map from the most recent 12z GFS run. It continues to resolve an area of overrunning precipitation that is enhanced by SW upslope flow. This area of moisture develops over a nearly frozen column, and a rain/snow mix looks possible. These models has shown this trend for the past 4 runs, and is not backing down. As soon as high resolution short range models get into range, we will have a better idea of how this will play out aloft, and how much precipitation will actually be available.
12z GFS Precipitation Depiction For Early Tuesday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Here is the 12z 3km nam as well. It is not in range just yet, but you can see the precipitation beginning to bank up on the Blue Ridge Escarpment . I expect to have a more clear picture sometime tomorrow, but for now know that the possibility for some snow does exist. Join me live tonight in the AshevilleWX App at 8pm or shortly after that on Facebook Live!
12z 3km NAM Precipitation Depiction Monday Night Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Heavy Rainfall Expected Sunday Afternoon
As the initial arctic front moves through heavy rainfall will be likely for most Sunday afternoon. Around .5” of rainfall is expected, but some isolated locations could see more. Join me live tonight at 8pm where I will discuss this more in depth.
12z NAM 3km Precipitation Depiction Sunday Afternoon Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Arctic Air Expected To Return To WNC Early Next Week, A Few Snow Showers Cannot Be Ruled Out
I am tracking two impactful systems that will move through WNC over the next week. The first wave will move through the area beginning Sunday afternoon, and persisting through Monday. This will bring down the arctic air from the north. On the tail end of that, there could be some overrunning development that produces some snow showers around WNC Tuesday into Wednesday. Right now this does not appear to be too high impact of an event, but as we move closers models could resolve more moisture.
What Will The First Front Bring?
Rainfall and cold is the answer. Below you can see the most recent GFS precipitation depiction and I it shows around .5”-1” of rain for most through Monday. Luckily this does not appear to be a large flash flood threat, simply because its duration will not last too long. The front moves through quickly and the arctic air rushes in behind.
GFS Total Precipitation Through next Monday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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GFS Projected Temps Next Wednesday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Arctic Air Threats Spring Blooms
This blast of arctic air will really damage Spring flowers that have already came out. These low temperatures will also damage tree buds that have prematurely bloomed. Sadly this will harm wildflowers in the higher elevations, and do a great deal of damage to early crops around the area, so please prepare for this cold snap.
Snow Chances Tuesday?
There is a slight chance for some snow shower development on Tuesday, but models have backed off considerably from what they initially showed earlier this week (imagine that). With the type events, small amounts of moisture can produce a couple of inches of snow when it get so cold.. and a lot of uncertainly still remains. Keep checking back here though, I will update on a regular basis regarding the latest on the potential for a few snow flakes around WNC.
High Wind Gusts Expected Through Early Tomorrow Morning Around WNC
As this strong front finally pushed through WNC, clear skies and windy conditions prevail. These winds will persist through the early morning hours of Monday for most locations, but could last through the early afternoon in some high elevation locations.
Zoom version of Nam 3km wind gusts courtesy of Weathermodels.com
How High Will Winds Gust?
Around Asheville, gust over 40mph could be possible with sustained winds of 10-15mph. At elevations above 3500’ these winds could gust over 60mph. You can see on the most recent NAM 3km run that gusts over 60mph are projected around Boone, so please be mindful of this.
3km Nam Projected Wind Gusts For Monday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Effects From These Winds?
I expect trees to come down in many areas over the next day due to the high winds. This combated with extremely wet soil/loose root system, will easily topple trees around WNC. Power outages cannot be ruled out, in fact I expect them to increase as the night progresses. Mud slides are also possible and can be induced by these high winds. As the winds move trees around, the roots move as well. This will loosen up extremely saturated slopes, especially those that are north facing. Please report any road closures due to mud slides to the AshevilleWX Weather Community on Facebook. Check back soon for another update, and stay safe this evening!
50+mph Wind Gust Headed Into WNC Tonight, Power Outages Flash Flooding Concerns Loom
A strong line of storms is headed for WNC and will move through your location in the next few hours. These strong gust could top 50mph in some locations, and that could cause power outages. Please be mindful of this if you are out traveling late this evening or tomorrow as this front passes through. Below you can see the most recent radar and there are some vectors showing up on the velocity scan of 70mph. These gusts are likely not making it to the surface, but winds over 45mph cannot be ruled out.
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More Wind Likely Sunday
As the front pushes through, more gusty wind is likely on Sunday. With the soil so wet and the water table so high, I am somewhat concerned about power outages around the area. Also trees falling across roadways can be very dangerous, so please be mindful of that when traveling around the area over the next 36 hours. Please report any downed tree you see around the area to the AshevilleWX Weather Community on Facebook, and check back later for more updates!
0z 3km NAM Wind Gusts Around WNC Tomorrow Showing 45+mph at AVL Airport Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Heavy Rain Moves In This Evening, Then Scattered Showers Likely For WNC Thursday And Into Friday
The soggy pattern continues over the next several days, and really does have an end in sight with system after system expected to move through the area. Another 1”+ of rain will fall between now and Friday afternoon, so some ponding on the roadways and minor flash flooding cannot be ruled out. below you can see the most recent GFS total precipitation through the weekend.
12 GFS Precipitation Totals Through Sunday Evening Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Cold Returns Late Next Week
I am watching an arctic front that will move through WNC late next week. This will bring with it temps in the low 20’s and possibly moisture. This will be the next system I have my eye on for significant weather in the southeast. There are still major details to be resolved, the cold air looks to be prevalent. Until then though, enjoy high afternoon temps this weekend in the mid to upper 50’s. I will be mild to end February, but March looks to come in like a lion!
Freezing Rain Threat Increasing For Tuesday/Wednesday Around WNC
As we continue to track the approaching storm, models are beginning to resolve small details in the atmosphere. A warm nose aloft at 700mb will melt precipitation as it falls through that layer. Then that precipitation will fall through a layer of frozen air very close to the surface. This will produce a combo of sleet and freezing rain for most. Locations west of Asheville will be warmer aloft and as you move towards Sylva and Franklin, the chance for frozen precipitation will dramatically decrease. It cannot be ruled out though. Locations around Henderson Co. where cold air from the wedge will be more prevalent could see significant icing. This includes most all locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. The chance for snowfall will occur at the beginning of heavy precipitation when dry air will allow temperatures to wet bulb in the atmosphere. I believe that many will see a dusting or so before switching to sleet or freezing rain. If models are correct, some locations could see over .25” of ice, and power outages could become a problem. Join me live tonight at 8pm in the AshevilleWx App or shortly after that on Facebook live where I will detail out my latest thoughts on the approaching event.
Wintry Mix Likely Tuesday Evening Around WNC Before Switchover To Rain Early Wednesday
A strong overrunning piece of moisture will move through WNC beginning on Tuesday, and as heavy precipitation moves in Tuesday evening, many could switchover to sleet or snow. Models continue to change each run with small, but important changes. I am tracking the warm nose at 700mb high in the atmosphere, and that will determine if heavy snow falling through that layer will melt or not. This layer is the warmest layer in the atmosphere Tuesday evening, and will determine if precipitation falls as rain/sleet/or snow for your area. Our cold air is going to be provided by a high pressure to the northeast and as that cold wedge sets up, just how far SW into WNC its pushes has yet to be determined. Below you can see my initial forecast map regarding how I think Tuesday night and into Wednesday will unfold. Eventually Wednesday morning most locations will switch over to only rain.. but cold air damming events can be stubborn and more prolonged compared to what models project. This map is subjected to change over the next 48 hours but I wanted to give you an idea of my thoughts moving forward. Join me live tonight in the AshevilleWX App at 7:30pm where I will detail out the most recent model data, and give my my current thoughts on the approaching event.
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Flash Flooding Threat Increasing
Long range models continue to paint a scary picture regarding the amount of precipitation that will move through the southeast over the next week. Many of the models believe that some locations could see over 10” of rainfall through next Sunday. This will most certainly cause streams and rivers to come out of their banks around the area, so please make preparations and be mindful that flooding is a real possibility next week. Below is the most recent 7 day precipitation total projection map from the GFS.
12z GFS Precipitation totals courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Chance For Wintry Weather Increasing For WNC On Tuesday Night, Above 3500' Could Get Hammered
I have had my eye on this system for the past week, and models are finally beginning to come towards a consensus. It appears that a strong area of overrunning precipitation will push into WNC sometime on Tuesday, and that will meet a cold wedge of air that will be funneled in from the Northeast. What does appear certain over the next week is heavy precipitation. Over 5” of rain will be possible later next week, but my current focus is on resolving the details of when the precipitation begins on Tuesday.
What Details Need To Be Worked Out?
Precipitation Timing
When will the system move in from the South, and how strong will the wedge be? If the wedge is allowed to build into the night on Tuesday before precipitation moves in, I think we stand a better chance of seeing accumulating snowfall around WNC. If it comes in during the day on Tuesday, I think the chance of us switching to snow will dramatically decrease.
Strength of Cold Wedge
As high pressure builds to our NE during the day on Tuesday, cold air will infiltrate the surface layer around WNC. Some models show this near frozen layer much deeper compared to others. Depending on the exact positing of when the high pressure sets up and its orientation, will determine just how much cold air is available.
Rate of Precipitation
Heavy precipitation will cause the column of air above WNC to go isothermal(frozen) sometime Tuesday evening. Depending on how heavy this precipitation is will determine how long we will see mixing (if any). Some models bring as much as 1” of rain in a six hour period Tuesday evening. Wetbulbing could occur where dry air allows precipitation to stay frozen as it falls through near frozen air. This is the natural atmospheric process that I believe could produce snowfall at the onset of precipitation Tuesday evening.
Model Data:
Below you can see a sounding from the 12z GFS that shows the column of air around Asheville. I have circled the crucial area where the temperature barely rises above freezing. This is what I am watching regarding the possibility for heavy snow/sleet Tuesday night.
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Below is the 12Z GFS precipitation depiction and it shows the transition just northeast of Asheville. Temperatures are so borderline, that we will need to wait until short range models get into range to have a better idea as to if accumulation around Asheville will be possible.
12z GFS Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Elevation Above 3500’ Look To Get Hammered With Heavy Snow Tuesday Night
I am more confident that higher elevation locations in WNC above 3500’ will see heavy snow Tuesday night. Accumulation will certainly be possible as well, with some models showing an astonishing 12”+ around Boone before a switchover to rain. There is great volatility with models currently, and very small details within these models can change over the next few days. Thats why I am watching the front of this moisture stream very closely.
Extreme Flash Flooding Possible Late Next Week/Next Weekend
I am becoming increasingly concerned about the flash flooding potential later next week as this stream of moisture brings over 5” of precipitation to the area. Already soggy soil will not handle the excessive moisture that the atmosphere will bring next week, and that will cause problems all across the SE. Some locations in NGA and SWNC could see over 10” of rainfall in the next 7-8 days. That will push streams and rivers out of their banks, so if you live in these areas next to a creek.. please be prepared to move to higher ground. Below you can see the most recent GFS total precipitation model for the next 7 days.
12z GFS Total Precipitation Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Recap:
Some higher elevation sleet/freezing rain could be possible tomorrow night above 3500’
Rain likely for others below 3500’, a few sleet pellets cant be ruled out
Next system moves in Tuesday afternoon, heavy precipitation Tuesday night could turn to snow
Higher elevations above 3500’ in WNC will switch to snow and 3”-6” of snow could be possible
Accumulating snowfall cannot be ruled out below 3500’, short range models will be needed
Next system moves in next weekend, and could push weekly precipitation totals above 5”
Dangerous flash flooding will be possible to end the week, especially SW of Asheville
Join me live tonight at 8pm on Facebook and the AshevilleWX App for another update
Soggy Weekend In Store For WNC This Weekend
Today and tomorrow around WNC should be beautiful, but winds could be gusty in some locations. Looking ahead towards the weekend, I have my eye on two separate storms that will bring rainfall to the area. The first will move in on Saturday morning and should persist through the early afternoon. I am expecting around a half inch of rainfall for most from this system. Then another system will push through on Sunday and into Monday where a half inch to 1” of rainfall will be possible. Some isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out with this rainfall, so please be mindful of that.
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More Precipitation On The Way
Following this weekend, it appears that we will move back into a wetter pattern (did we ever get out of it?). On Tuesday another system of overrunning precipitation will affect WNC. Some models have had wintry precipitation associated, but others are too warm. The cold air for this system would be provided by Cold Air Damming and some models believe the cold wedge will be stronger compared to others. A lot of uncertainty still remains with this system which is why I have chosen to focus right now on the precipitation amounts instead of snowfall potential. Over 3” of rainfall looks possible by this time next week, and that will increase the flash flooding potential around WNC. Streams will rise over the weekend, and won’t have much of an opportunity to recede since these systems will be back to back to back. Below you can see the projected precipitation totals through mid next week per the most recent GFS. You can see that areas to the SW of Asheville stand a much better chance of seeing excessive rainfall, but widespread 2.5” totals are possible with these three combined precipitation events.
12z GFS Precipitation Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Will There Be Snow With The Last System?
Some long range models have shown the potential for wintry weather next Tuesday, and that cannot be ruled out.. but temperatures are going to be very close. Depending on how strong the high pressure to our north is will determine how strong of a cold wedge sets up. Join me live tonight at 8pm in the AshevilleWX App as I discuss the coming week in weather, and give you my latest thoughts on early next week!
