Hunter Ward
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Rain Today, Then Northwest Flow To Bring Accumulating Snow To Many Tomorrow
Hunter Ward
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Trick-or-Treat Forecast, If You Dare

Not So Frightful Temperatures

A beautiful Halloween day awaits you today in WNC! Sunshine and mild temperatures are on tap as you head out to your goulish festivities, so have no fear! The real fright though will come with the following storm systems. Over the next week severe weather will be the theme, with strong fronts moving through the area Thursday night into Friday, and then mid next week. These fronts will bring some tornadic activity to parts of the Southeast, but I believe that the threat will be minimal here in WNC.

Halloween Temperatures.. Map courtesy of Weathermodels.com.

Halloween Temperatures.. Map courtesy of Weathermodels.com.

Below you can see the front moving in late Thursday night. This front will bring heavy rainfall to the area, and some locations could see 1” or more fall. Lightning, thunder, heavy rain, gusty winds over 45mph, and some flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Check back with Ashevillewx tomorrow, we will have a full breakdown of what to expect!

Front Moving In Thursday Evening.. Map courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Front Moving In Thursday Evening.. Map courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Scattered Showers This Evening, Severe Storms By The End Of The Week Around WNC

Models Show Scattered Showers This Evening

Lokking at the most recent NAM 3km model, it indicates that a band of showers that has developed across Kentucky will move through WNC this evening. This showers could be heavy for a short duration.. but I am not expecting more than .25” of rainfall accumulation in most locations.

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These showers will be short-lived, and cooler temperatures will return as this front passes. Lows tomorrow morning around WNC look to be in the upper 30’s for most. Clearing will follow, and that will be the theme until a stronger storm system moves through the area Thursday into Friday.

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Trick-or-Treating Weather Looks Great!

Models show temperature in the mid 50’s on Halloween night with little to no chance for rain! So wear a jacket & enjoy!

Storms Will Move Through WNC Late Week

Models continue to indicate that a very strong system will form across the Central part of the US, and move towards WNC. Timing for these storms looks to be Thursday Afternoon into Friday.. but that can change as we approach the event.

Sunday 12z GFS Model Depiction

Lightning, gusty winds, thunder, and rainfall of around 1” can be expected from this front. Temperatures will fall back close to freezing after the front passes, and I can’t rule out the chance for high elevation snow showers. Check back soon for another update, and have a great Sunday!

Heavy Rain, High Elevation Snow Still Possible Tomorrow Morning Around WNC

Heavy Rain, High Elevation Snow Still Possible Tomorrow Morning Around WNC

A stout low pressure system, formally known as Hurricane Willa that hit the Mexico Coast, will move through WNC tomorrow. As it reaches the Atlantic Coast, it will likely strengthen and create some problems for the East Coast. Here in WNC, I am expecting 1”+ of rainfall for most everyone, with some locations seeing as much as 3” of rain before Friday evening. Some slight flash flooding could occur with this system since the rain will come fairly quickly and could come down hard for a couple of hours. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km total precipitation map. Locations north of Asheville will likely see less rainfall compared to Asheville.. but a general 1” or so can be expected.

Snow Showers Possible Friday Above 4000' Around WNC

Snow Showers Possible Friday Above 4000' Around WNC

A strong Gulf low will develop off of the remnants of Hurricane Willa that is currently affecting Mexico, and that could make for interesting weather to end the week around WNC. Rainfall will begin to stream in early Friday morning, and for some locations.. that could begin as snow. The highest elevations stand the best chance of seeing snowfall (especially above 4000’), but I can’t rule out places like Burnsville and Spruce Pine beginning with a few flakes as well. These cold upper level temperatures will quickly retreat though, and most everyone below 5000’ will switch to rain. Surface temperatures will be warm, so no accumulation is really expected, except in the highest elevations.

Mid To Upper 30's Possible Thursday Morning Around WNC

Mid To Upper 30's Possible Thursday Morning Around WNC

It appears as though we will skip right into near freezing temperatures around WNC, after a relentless heatwave pushed us through the end of September and into October. Models indicate that higher elevations could see there first freezing temperatures of the season (above 3500’), and elevations in the valleys below could dip into the 30’s for the first time in several months. This will likely kill off weak vegetation that thrived in the previous heatwave. It would be wise to move plants indoors as well Wednesday evening. Below is the most recent(18z) run of the NAM and you can see that it shows 37 possible for the Asheville Airport on Thursday morning. The following image is the 12z European depiction of possible temperatures Thursday morning, and despite a few variances, the models seem to be in good agreement that temperatures below 40 degrees are very possible.

Ashevillewx 2018-2019 Winter Weather Outlook

Ashevillewx 2018-2019 Winter Weather Outlook

Forecasting winter in the southeast is never an easy task, but there are methods to foretell what nature could have in store. Meteorologist use sea surface temperatures in various locations of the Pacific, along with many other measures to forecast where storms will originate during the winter months. If warm trade winds blow towards the Eastern Pacific during winter, warm water will be upwelled.. and storm development will occur in this region (El Nino conditions). If these prevailing winds blow away from the Eastern Pacific, cooler, more settled weather persist in the Eastern Pacific (La Nina conditions). There is a growing consensus that a weak El Nino will develop this year, creating unsettled conditions in the Eastern Pacific. So what does that mean for the Southeast?

Mid 40’s Possible Saturday Morning Around WNC

Following Hurricane Michael a cold front will usher in much more seasonable air to WNC.  In fact, many short range models suggest that we could fall all the way into the mid 40’s by Saturday morning.  This will be a shock to the system.  Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km run and at 9am it shows 44 degrees at the Asheville Airport. 

 

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These cooler temperatures will stick around for the most part, and it will feel more fall like for here on.  Check back soon for another update and have a great weekend!

High Winds From Michael Could Decimate An Already Late Leaf Season In WNC

High Winds From Michael Could Decimate An Already Late Leaf Season In WNC

Hurricane Michael will make landfall today along the Florida Panhandle, and will then move up towards WNC. We will stay on the NW side of the storm, which will limit the rainfall here in Western North Carolina.. but the winds will be the main story. Higher elevation locations especially in the Blue Ridge Mountains could see wind gusts over 55mph tomorrow afternoon/evening. These gusts look to persist through the early hours of Friday, so please secure your outdoor accessories if possible today. Below you can see a map of the wind gust expected. Some 70mph gust could be felt across many NC locations, but it appears the highest winds will stay away from WNC.

Storm Development Likely This Afternoon Around WNC

Models indicate that storm development is likely this afternoon in WNC.  These storms look to be slow moving and could drop over an inch of rainfall in insolated locations.  I do not expect them to go severe though, meaning hail is not likely.  Temperatures will max out in the low 80’s, and I am forecasting 82 degrees for the Asheville airport.

When? 

Storm development looks to initiate around 2pm-3pm, and these will persist through the evening.  Some locations may not see any rainfall from these isolated showers, but others could receive over 1”.  I do not expect extensive flooding from these storms, but pounding on the roadways cannot be ruled out.

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Above you can see the the HRRR radar depiction around 5pm this evening.  Storms look more likely north of Asheville, compared  to south.  Heavier rain and train storms look likely in Madison and Northen Buncome Co.  Please report any flooding that you see to Ashevillewx.