Heavy Rainfall Expected For Most
A stout low pressure system, formally known as Hurricane Willa that hit the Mexico Coast, will move through WNC tomorrow. As it reaches the Atlantic Coast, it will likely strengthen and create some problems for the East Coast. Here in WNC, I am expecting 1”+ of rainfall for most everyone, with some locations seeing as much as 3” of rain before Friday evening. Some slight flash flooding could occur with this system since the rain will come fairly quickly and could come down hard for a couple of hours. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km total precipitation map. Locations north of Asheville will likely see less rainfall compared to Asheville.. but a general 1” or so can be expected.
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Rain Clears Out By Friday Evening
Rainfall will begin to clear out on Friday afternoon, and only scattered showers should linger after the sun sets. The chance for showers though will remain through the next couple of days as the front turns up the coast and moisture is allowed to hang around.
Snow Still Possible In Highest Elevations
Models still indicate that upper level temperatures at locations like Mt. Mitchell will still be cold enough to support a switch over to snow. You can see all the popular views here in our WNC Webcams page http://www.ashevillewx.com/wncwebcams/. Check tomorrow morning to see if snow is falling at some of these locations! So looking a little more in depth into model data, and below you can see the most recent NAM 3km 850mb temperatures around 7-8am tommorrow morning. Elevations above 5000’ sit at or above the 850mb level so this model illustrates those locations temps fairly well. You can see pockets of near freezing or freezing temperatures tomorrow morning in the highest elevations. That would support a switch to snow, and that can occur many times with these Miller A type storms.
So it will be interesting tomorrow to see if this comes to fruition. These mesoscale models are known for sniffing out small details, and it would surprise me one bit to see heavy snow above 6000’. Check back tomorrow morning, I will do my best to cover the higher elevations!