Models have been keying on an easterly wave propagating itself into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days where the pressure could deepen. We could then see Tropical Storm or even Hurricane Michael develop. From there, it becomes a very difficult forecast.. but that is the case with all tropical depressions, so bare with the meteorological community over the next week.
We’ve all heard Old-Timers with their cliche notions, touting tales of nature’s signs, and how their foreshadowing indicates the degree of difficulty for the winter months that will follow. These tall tales though are plated with a note of science that keeps the winter lover savoring each year for a new bite. Of the many stories or “weatherlore” that exists though, which ones hold the most scientific significance? Below I will detail out the top 10 weatherlore that people in the South rely on, and then give some perspective into the scientific reasoning of why that notion is believed by some to be a valid predictor of winter.
Many people in the South believe that animals are an excellent predictor of weather to come, and they are not wrong in thinking so. Animals are known to take nature’s signs and apply them to their daily life. They can foretell of impeding natural disasters, and they use their heightened senses to prepare. Many animals have been documented in retreat from the coastline several minutes before a Tsunami arrives. So what does this have to do with winter in the South?
Deer are a prevalent species in the Southeast, and the hunting of them is also very popular. Therefore, deer hunters are in contact with deer each year on a frequent basis. From an online poll at Ashevillewx, I found that some people observe the thickness of the deers winter fur coat and how early it arrives to determine how severe winter will be.
Deer, just like any other species, will prepare for winter in whatever way necessary. They do not hibernate during the winter, but simply just move less. Their metabolism actually slows to a crawl because food is scarce, and a thick coat is necessary to keep them warm. If their coat is not thick enough for a harsh winter, they will likely die due to natural selection. Therefore, thickness of a deers coat does have so scientific significance. The problem though is that it is difficult to measure from year to year. You can’t count the hairs, so one relies on the senses to measure this notion. Therefore on a scale of 1-10, I give deer coats a 3 on the accuracy scale.
During the winter months, some southerns believe that a crack of thunder indicates that it will snow in 7 days. Every time it thunders, comments flood in on Ashevillewx indicating the presences of thunder, and many locals begin a countdown. Why? Because of course their parents or grandparents taught them to do so. But why then did our grandparents believe these signs were significant? Because before weather models and the accumulation of data, they were!! Amy Graham-Silvers, an avid Ashevillewx reader states that her dad called them “old wives tales” and that he said “thunder in the winter means snow within the next 7-10 days”.
Many times during winter, a strong high pressure will develop off the Southeast Atlantic Coast. This pushes warm air into the area, and most of the time eliminates the threat for snow. Precipitation that falls when this high pressure is strong, typically falls in the form of rain. In order to move this high away, it takes a strong front. A strong front would likely bring with it the chance for thunderstorm development. So the front pushes the high pressure out of the way, and cold air floods in behind after the thunder has occurred. So basically what I have just described is known as a pattern change. Strong fronts in the winter push away high pressures that are situated on the Southeast Atlantic Coast. Without a source of warm air, cooler air can dominate, and a Gulf Low with adequate positioning can create snowfall across the southeast. Therefore on a scale of 1/10, I give this Weatherlore a 5/10 regarding the accuracy of its predictions.
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As a winter storm approaches, many Ashevillewx followers have observed cows laying on the ground around WNC. Do cows have a 6th sense that helps them prepare for the weather? Watson Geoffrey, an Ashevillewx reader said this.. “Some folks say when we get into the winter months, and one drives around the area (Burnsville, NC) or other. When one sees the cows all laying down, it going to snow that day or next day.” I delved into this a bit further to see if there was any science behind this theory.
A study conducted by The University of Arizona found that cows like to stand up in warm weather, presumably so that they can disperse heat, and cool down quicker. Likewise, the University also concluded that when a front is approaches and weather is cooling down.. that cows will lie down. Another theory from the Farmers Almanac though says that cow lie down simple to chew their cud. So as far as reliability, I give this weatherlore a 2/10 regarding its usefulness in predicting snowfall.
I had never heard this weatherlore before I proposed the question to my followers about what they look for, but a Johnathan Ray, a weather nerd like me from WNC states that “Wasps build their nests high and in protected areas avoiding low areas that may be overtook by snowy weather.” I ventured into this topic a bit more to analyze the scientific aspects and here what I found..
During heavy snowfall from winter storms, many areas will create drifts due to the direction of the wind. Most wasps die off during the winter months due to starvation (except for a few hearty queens). These queens will try and hibernate near the nest, and then reemerge when the temperatures reach around 50 degrees. So, one could infer that if a queen bee feels that winter will be extra cold, she will conduct her colony to build a nest higher, in order for her to stay safe. She must survive the winter in order for the offsprings to survive, so there could be some truth to this weatherlore, but I am skeptical. Regarding accuracy, I give it a 2/10.
Many Ashevillewx readers indicated that they looked for a halo around the moon as a weatherlore when a storm is approaching. This occurs many times throughout the year, so it doesn’t just refer to snow, but I will dive into the scientific details anyways to see if there is any truth to this tale.
Cirrus clouds made of microscopic ice crystals high up in the upper atmosphere are what cause these halo’s around the moon to appear. Cirrus clouds can act independently, but many times they are associated with an approaching front. During the winter months, cooler temperatures are more prevalent in the atmosphere, so the existence of cirrus clouds increases. Propagated forward in extreme temperatures, these ice crystals foreshadow an abundance of moisture to follow. Thus, one can draw a vague association between halos around the moon, and approaching snowstorms. I give this method a 5/10.
As Fall approaches, farmers begin to gather their share of corn. Many old timers would look to how tight the corn husks were to determine how severe winter would be that year. Ashevillewx followers reminded me of this method and elaborated on it. Kim Crumpler states that “If corn shucks are very tight it’s a bad winter.” Johnathan Ray added that “Winter will be cold and snow if corn husks are thick and tight”. So lets enter into the science of why this theory might hold true.
Corn husks will be high and tight in my experience to protect from rain in a very wet year. An extremely wet year would more then likely be preceded by a somewhat wet winter, that in many cases would produce snow. Thats about the only association that I can make between corn husks and winter weather, but I do know that many farmer used to use this weatherlore each year. As far as reliability, I would give this method a 3/10.
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Farmers have been cutting Persimmon seeds open for countless years to find out how severe winter that year would be. The old weatherlore says that if you find a spoon inside when cutting open the seed, expect plenty of snow to shovel, but if you find a fork shape, winter will be mild. Johnathan Ray, the area guru say “When persimmon seeds are split in half, they reveal either a spoon, knife, or fork shape. A knife indicates a winter that will be very cold, a spoon (which looks like a shovel!) predicts lots of snow, and a fork says winter will be mild.” So, lets see if there is actually some science behind this predictor.
These depictions shown on the inside of the seed are actually roots. So do the roots grow more in an exceptionally wet year? I cannot find any studies to confirm anything on these, so my science really ends here unfortunately. The only thing I can really find is that if its a spoon you will be shoveling snow lol. So this weatherlore is very unknown as far as science.
Around Western North Carolina we have many oak trees, and folks around the area over the years have become accustom to equating the acorn crop to how severe winter will be. A friend tells me that “Old timers used to believe that if the shell on the acorns extended lower on the nut itself then it would be a harsh winter. (BlueRidgeFolklore).” So, a large crop or acorns with shells that extended lower on the nut itself would indicate that a harsh winter was on the way. Is the tree anticipating that the squirrels will need to hibernate longer, therefore they will need more nuts? Or is it simply a wet year and the Oak tree is capable of producing more nuts. Lets look into the Science.
Oak trees will produce a larger crop of acorns during wet years. Like many of the other weatherlore, a wet year sometime precedes a harsh winter. So a likely correlation could be made.. but I have no science to back that up. Squirrels gathering nuts furiously could indicate that the squirrels sense a pressure drop, and are preparing for a storm. There is limited science to be found on this topic, but it seems to be one of the favorites.
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Many Ashevillewx readers chimed in about the use of the Wooly Bear Caterpillar, and the burnt orange band thats present on its coat. There is actually a festival held every year in Vermilion, Ohio where a local weatherman come and reads the wooly worms. How awesome is that? They also celebrate the Woolly Worm in Banner Elk, NC! So, if you believe this weatherlore, you are not alone! The story goes, that apparently however long the burnt orange stripe is, indicates how long winter will last. The dark bands in the stripe can also be used to signify when snows will occur. I love the concept, but it seems a little farfetched.. so lets see if there is any science behind the method.
Heres an except taken from weather.gov
“The woolly bear caterpillar's coloring is based on how long caterpillar has been feeding, its age, and species. The better the growing season is the bigger it will grow. This results in narrower red-orange bands in its middle. Thus, the width of the banding is an indicator of the current or past season's growth rather than an indicator of the severity of the upcoming winter. Also, the coloring indicates the age of the woolly bear caterpillar.”
As far as the story about the woolly caterpillar's coat, this is how Mother Nature helps it survive winter. The fur is called setae and it isn't there to protect them from the cold weather. Instead it actually helps them to freeze more controllably. Here is something truly remarkable. Once settled in, the caterpillars hibernate, creating a natural organic antifreeze called glycerol. They freeze bit by bit, until everything but the interior of their cells are frozen. These interior cells are protected by the hemolymph. Woollybears can - and do - survive to temperatures as low as -90oF. This ability to adapt to cold shows up particularly in the Arctic, where the woolly worms live in a strange state of slow motion. Most caterpillars live for two to four weeks before becoming moths. The Arctic woolly worms, however, spend at least 14 years in the process! The woolly bear caterpillar has even been known to survive an entire winter completely frozen in an ice cube.
Interesting right? So, wooly worms are a better predictor of how the past season was, compared to how the future season will be. But, its still really fascinating to learn that they can live in temps as low as -90 degrees!
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This was the most popular topic brought up when I did an informal poll of the Ashevillewx following. Many exclaim that the number of foggy mornings in August, would equate to the number of snows that winter. Locals from all across WNC chimed in with their totals, and it will be interesting to see what comes to fruition. It will be hard to make a scientific connection with this one because August is so far away from winter, so I will just give you totals from counters across WNC. Check back soon for the official fog count from the WNC Fog Lady!
Historically, around the beginning of October, Asheville will typically see high temps in the low 70’s, and low temps in the mid 50’s. That has not been the case though this year. Persistent onshore flow from the Atlantic has pushed back any frontal passage that would bring those fall like temperatures. Just like what happened last week, the front stalled and dissipated over the top of WNC. Models continue to show this flow from the Atlantic thru the next 10 days.
The national weather service in Greer, SC has issued a flash flood watch for many of the far western counties of NC, and those counties that border Tennessee. heavy rainfall is currently moving into the area from Eastern Tennessee, and is expected to continue through the evening, and even through Thursday. Streams and rivers could rise quickly in the affected counties, so please turn around.. don’t drown.
A Strong frontal passage is meandering it’s way towards WNC, and storms will kick up out in front of it today. On radar currently, you can see these storms currently in East Tennessee, but they should arrive in WNC by the early afternoon.
10:20am Radar Depiction
Some clearing in front of this system has allowed for it to organize more then I previously expected. Lightning and heavy rain will be the threat from these storms, so be careful when traveling around Asheville at rush hour. Below you can see most recent run of the NAM 3km, and it has a strong storm moving through Asheville at approximately 4pm.
12z NAM 3km at 4pm
After these storms pass, some lingering shower activity is possible. Then tomorrow morning I expect there to be spots of heavy fog around the mountains. We could see a similar situation set up tomorrow, and depending on how much sun we get in the morning, will determine how much storm activity develops in the afternoon.
This front will finally push through late Saturday night or early Sunday morning, and temperatures will fall into the upper 50’s for many. Some isolated locations could even drop into the mid 50’s. You can see the 6z GFS from today’s morning run shows the AVL Airport at 56 degrees on Sunday morning. That will feel brisk! These fronts are typical of fall like weather and should be expected though. As we progress towards winter, these fronts track farther south, and bring that colder air with them. We are still a month or so away from that though! Enjoy the cooler temperatures, and check back soon for more information.
6z GFS Temp Depiction Sunday Morning
That will be the theme for WNC over the course of this week unfortunately. Models bring in moisture ahead of a lingering front, and that moisture will make the next couple of days very dreary for the mountains. Below you can see a depiction of what to expect this evening and into tomorrow morning. The 18 hr simulated HRRR model shows rainfall becoming heavier early as we progress into the late hours of tonight and early hours of tomorrow morning.
That’s right, Fall officially begins on September 22.. but this week won’t feel much like a prequel. Warm conditions are expected for all of WNC this week, with highs in the mid 80’s. A few pop-up showers could be possible, but models appear less than optimistic that these will be widespread on any afternoon this week. That is a great thing because our stream and rivers need to drain! Some locations in the area especially around Pensacola, NC & Fairview, NC saw flooding from Florence, and more rainfall would just complicate those cleanups.
We are seeing a relaxation of activity in the tropics currently, so for the next 7-10 days.. there appears to be no immediate threat to the US. That doesn’t mean that we are out of the woods this tropical season, it just means the atmosphere is less likely to produce tropical development over the next couple of weeks. We can still get Hurricanes into November, so this season is far from over.
Long range models indicate a strong front pushing across the US early next week. This could bring the threat of severe storms along with it for our area. It’s still a bit far out to forecast for this time frame, but know that I have my eye on it. Muggy conditions will likely be the story though ahead of the front.
Check back for another article soon detailing your weekend forecast!
Current short range models indicate that WNC only has 6 or so more hours of rainfall to endure from form Hurricane Florence. Rainfall totals around the area do not appear as though they will be as high as what model initially indicated, but flash flood warnings are currently up for Southwestern McDowell County. Northwestern Rutherford County, Eastern Henderson County, Western Polk County, &Eastern Buncombe County… All locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Models show that a more northern track will now occur with Florence, and will keep more moisture from inundating WNC.
Over the next 6-12 hours, flooding is still possible, but it does appear that major rivers around the area will stay in their banks, especially around Asheville. Please be careful when traveling around WNC, many evacuees are attempting to return home and traffic is heavy. Ponding on the roadways has also slowed traffic, so please limit your frustration and be glad that you are only experiencing heavy rainfall.
Below you can see two model depictions of Flo moving out later this evening. Both short range models believe that the western movement will halt, and a more northern steering component will take over. This means heavier rainfall for locations like Greensboro and north, but less rainfall for areas in the Western part of the state. This storm has been unpredictable from the beginning, so this should come as no surprise that the track has changed.
HRRR Model
12z NAM 3km
Models do not move Florence’s winds out as quickly compared to the rainfall. Gusty winds could persist until late in the evening Monday or even Tuesday for many locations. These gusts could top 40mph in higher elevation locations, so please be mindful of that. Trees can still be toppled, and power outages can still occur, even after the rainfall moves out. Luckily, many have been spared.. and power seems to be available to most.
Florence will begin to affect Western North Carolina sometime tomorrow afternoon. My best guess is from 2-4pm rainfall will begin, but that is a guess due to the nature of how this storm has evolved. You can see for the projection map below that 3”-5” of rainfall is certainly possible thru Tuesday morning, so this will not be a short event. Areas along the Blue Ridge Escarpment will see more rainfall compared to the Asheville area. Totals along the Eastern Escarpment will range from 5”-8”+.
