Hunter Ward

September 16, 2020

Flooding Likely As Remnants Of Hurricane Sally Move Through WNC

Hunter Ward

September 16, 2020

Hurricane Sally has moved ashore this morning as a category 2 Hurricane, and is currently unleashing winds of 100mph+ on locations around Gulf Shores, AL. Models are spread regarding where exactly the remnants will track, but several US models suggest that the majority of the precipitation will move right over WNC. The European on the other hand indicates that the rainfall will move to our South, and only limited rainfall will be experienced here in WNC. Below you can see the most recent precipitation totals from the NAM 3km.

Nam 3km Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Flash Flooding Likely Especially Along Blue Ridge Escarpment

The Blue Ridge Escarpment will be under the gun again as Sally pushes through the area. Most all models indicate that this area along the NC/SC border stands the best chance of seeing flooding from this event. Below you can see the most recent GFS model run as well and the vast amount of precipitation it shows moving through.

6z GFS Precipitation totals courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Model Spread

The European model on the other hand shows limited rainfall from Sally for WNC, but hammers the Interior of SC and Central portions of NC. In fact the European model is the much wetter solution as a whole, but it moves the main swath of rainfall to our South, with less effects. See it below..

European Model Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Cold Front To Follow Sally

A refreshing cold front will push through the area following the passing of the remnants of Sally. Rainfall totals may not be certain at this point in time, but what does appear certain are the cooler temperatures to follow. In fact the European model is showing temperatures as low as 39 next Tuesday morning! This would mean a first frost for many locations around WNC in the higher elevations. Wow what a short growing season. If you remember, we had a freeze on May 15th this year. That is only a 4 month growing season for elevations above 4000’ or so. Pretty impressive if this cold front comes to fruition. Below you can see the most recent European model spread regarding temps for the next 10 days.

Euro 10 Day Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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GFS 10 Degrees Warmer

The GFS model is 10 degrees warmer next week regarding morning low temperatures compared to the European model. This will need to be monitored over the next several days, and I expect the models to meet in the middle somewhere. What does look likely are temperatures in the low 40’s during the morning for many locations early next week. I will have more information on this cold front as it becomes available.

GFS Long Range Temp Forecast Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Watch Sally Move In To WNC Live

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Hunter Ward

September 12, 2020

Hurricane Sally Possible Along Gulf Coast Monday, Rapid Intensification Cant Be Ruled Out

Hunter Ward

September 12, 2020

Models are beginning to resolve an eerie solution for the Gulf Coast States over the next 2-3 days. A Tropical Depression exiting the FL Keys will have the opportunity to intensify into a Hurricane, with some models indicating that rapid intensification could even be possible. This storm would be named Sally as it intensifies and should be watched very closely as we progress though the next few days. Landfall along the Gulf Coast appears imminent. Below you can see the most recent forecast projected by the HWRF Model.

Model Support

The HWRF model did very well with Hurricane Laura so it must be taken very serious in this situation. Especially when it indicates Rapid Intensification to be possible. Rapid Intensification occurs when a storm drops at least 24 millibars of pressure over the course of 24 hours. This indicates the storm is strengthening at a great rate. Other Hurricane Models like the HMON model also indicate that a strong storm will be possible. Below you can see the most recent forecast depiction from the HMON Model.

12z HMON Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

Flooding Possible Late Next Week From Remnants In WNC

Looking at the most recent GFS model, one can see that a signifiant amount of rainfall will be possible across all of WNC as the remnants of Sally push through the area. Depending on how strong the storm gets, will determine how much rainfall can be generated around the area. Check out the GFS precipitation model below for WNC through Friday. Some locations could see over 5” of rainfall!

GFS Total Precipitation Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Lots Of Uncertainty

As stated, the models are just now realizing how strong this storm can possibly get. Therefore as we get a better picture of how exactly the system will unfold, ill have a better idea of how it will affect us here in WNC. I do believe that flash flooding is going to be a big storm around WNC to end next week, especially along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. We could also be dealing with some winds from the system, but as stated, more details will be needed as models continue to resolve the solution. Check back soon for more information!

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Hunter Ward

September 10, 2020

2020 AshevilleWX Fall Color Forecast-Beautiful Leaf Season In Store

Hunter Ward

September 10, 2020

Those cool, crisp evenings have already started to grace our presence here in the mountains of WNC, and you know what that means? Fall and fall color are just around the corner! This year, several factors will play into another vibrant leaf crop for all to enjoy. Below I detail out the peak spots to see fall color around WNC, and when you should go! I also cover my basis for projecting a 7/10 on the AshevilleWX Leaf Vibrancy Scale.

Peak Color Map

Fall Forecast

Several models indicate that a relatively normal end to September appears likely for WNC, and that would include a few more cold fronts as we progress through the month. These cold fronts are one of the main factors in leaf change because cold temperatures are what causes the leaves to change color and die. Of course, those higher elevation locations will experience leaf change quicker, mainly due to cooler temperatures at those locations.. but also a lack of oxygen. I believe we have roughly 3 weeks as of now (September 10th) before we begin to see locations above 6000’ start to show peak color. This should happen around September 30th if we have a few more cold fronts move through.

The Beginning

Fall color will begin to peak at the highest locations in WNC on approx September 30th. This includes all locations above 6000’ in WNC. These dates are of course not certain because nature isn’t certain, they are only approximations based off of current weather model trends, and past average peak data. As the peak begins to occur around the beginning of October in locations like Clingmans Dome & Mount Mitchell you won’t see very vibrant photos. This is due to low oxygen levels at those altitudes. Conifers thrive above 6000’, but typical trees that leaf out struggle to survive. As we progress through October though, trees below 6000’ begin the leaf change process.

Best Time To Visit WNC To See Color On Blue Ridge Parkway

If I had to pick a time to visit The Blue Ridge Parkway to experience the beautiful fall colors, it would be the week of Oct 7-13 or Oct 14-20. Locations like Boone, NC which is close to Linn Cove Viaduct (Pictured Below) will be in peak color during this time frame, and wonderful pictures are to be taken during these weeks at various elevations. If you are planning to visit Grandfather Mountain, these will also be the best weeks to experience fall color (especially early in this time frame). If you are visiting Asheville during these weeks, the valley locations will not be in peak color.. but a short drive North to Craggy Gardens, or South to Graveyard Fields will quickly get you into that peak color that you are looking for. Be careful though, the Parkway will be crowded and Covid-19 precautions should be taken.

Linn Cove Viaduct Taken By Meteorologist Hunter Ward On October 10th of 2015

Best Time To Visit WNC To See Color Around Downtown Asheville

It is sort of a tricky question when people ask me when they should visit WNC to see fall color. Usually my next question is, do you want to see color around Asheville, or in the higher mountains. Usually the higher mountains are the preference, but vibrant fall color can be found around Downtown Asheville typically during the week of October 21st-October 27th. If you are seeking advice on when to visit Asheville, these dates or later will be best for color around town.

Photo Taken October 26th Just North of Asheville By Meteorologist Hunter Ward

Weather Model Data

The two main long range models that I observe when forecast long range temperatures are rather mild for the next several weeks with many average weeks mixed in. Therefore, I am forecast that fall color will occur at the typical time that it has over the past 30 years. In the past 2-3 years, we have experienced later then usual changes, so some of these dates might seem a bit soon.. but if average comes to fruition, my forecast should verify give or take a few days. Below you can see both the CFS model and the Seasonal European model. Both are not cool moving into October, but neither are they extremely warm.

Euro Fall Seasonal Forecast Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

CFS October Temperature Forecast Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Short Range Models

The European model also has very mild temperatures for the next 10 days with another cold shot expected around September 20th. This will kickstart those high elevation leaves, and could also begin to turn a few young trees in elevations above 4500’.

10 Day Temperature Spread Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Science Behind Why Leaves Change

Watch Fall Color Change Live Across WNC

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Hunter Ward

August 28, 2020

High Winds Associated With Laura To Affect WNC Through Saturday Evening

Hunter Ward

August 28, 2020

The remnants of Laura are currently progressing towards WNC, and winds will begin to pick up around WNC as the afternoon progresses. Gusts to 40mph will be possible through early Sunday morning around the Asheville area, and gusts to 50mph could be possible above 3500’. This will all occur as Laura transitions to a post tropical low pressure system in the Northeast. A strong tail of energy, or a “sting jet” could develop that will enhance these winds. Regardless of whether or not an actual sting jet manifests, the winds will get rather gusty around WNC as what is left of Laura moves through. Below you can see how the low pressure transfers to the NE and the low begins to deepen. That is what will aid our high wind event.

Highest Wind Threat

The winds will begin to pick up later today, and as the night progresses it will get quite gusty around WNC. The highest wind threat will be for elevations along the NC/TN border above 3500’ where isolated locations could see gusts as high as 60 mph. Below you can see a depiction of the high wind gusts that will be possible as we move through tomorrow.

3km NAM Max Wind Gusts Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Will Flash Flooding Be Possible?

Very limited rainfall is expected in most valley locations around WNC including Asheville. I am projecting less than half an inch for most, but if you live along the NC/TN border 1”-2” will be possible. Very isolated flash flooding will be possible, but the main threat will be for high winds. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km precipitation projections.

Summary

All and all the winds are going to be the main story as what is left of Laura moves overhead. Gust to 40mph will be felt in valley locations and above 3500’ gusts over 50mph will be possible. It would be wise this afternoon to secure outdoor accessories that could potently be damaged by high winds. The system will move out by Sunday, and I expect a nice day for most areas, enjoy!

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Hunter Ward

August 26, 2020

Sting Jet From Dissipating Laura To Bring High Wind Event To WNC Saturday

Hunter Ward

August 26, 2020

Hurricane Laura is currently undergoing rapid intensification in the Gulf of Mexico and could strengthen before landfall to a high end Category 4 storm. Models suggest that landfall will be likely around Port Charles, LA sometime late this evening or early tomorrow morning. A modern day ghost town can be found in locations under Hurricane Warnings because citizens are taken this storm seriously, as they should. Below you can see the most recent satellite imagery form GOES-16 of Hurricane Laura.

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How Will Laura Affect WNC?

On Saturday expect scattered showers from an approaching remanent low of what is left of Laura. A unique phenomena could develop as Laura sweeps East known as a Sting Jet. A sting jet manifests when there is rapid development in the mid latitudes. As Laura transitions to a post tropical storm, this will happen over land and a strong mid latitude cyclone will be the result. Check out the European model depiction I have shown below. You can see Laura making landfall and then being picked up by the Jet Stream. As the storm decouples and loses its vertical structure, a stout post tropical storm will develop.

What Does This Mean For WNC?

Well there is still some uncertainty as to how this event unfolds, I believe that a high wind event is on tap for WNC, especially in the higher elevations Saturday. Winds could gust over 50mph in some locations as the remnants of Laura pass by. I am waiting on short range model data to resolve the solution, but for now notice how the winds increase on the European model late Saturday night below.

Sting Jet Euro Winds Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Main Story

The wind from this event will be the main story. Most models limit rainfall to less than 1.5” across WNC, so flash flooding will likely be kept at bay expect for isolated locations. It would be wise on Saturday morning to secure outdoor accessories that are susceptible too wind. Report your high wind gusts to the AshevilleWX Weather Community and check back later today or tomorrow, I will do a live update.

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Hunter Ward

August 2, 2020

Excessive Rain Likely As Front & Isaias Collide Over NC

Hunter Ward

August 2, 2020

Tropical storm Isaias has been moving through the Atlantic Ocean for the past several days, and will eventually make landfall sometime Monday along the SC/NC Coast. Though this storm will likely move through the interior of NC, a frontal boundary that will position itself over WNC will bring excessive rainfall to the area through Tuesday afternoon. Below you can see a depiction from the NAM 3km of what could possibly unfold over the next three days.

How Much Rain Are We Talking?

Well over an inch of rainfall is possible for most locations through Tuesday, and that will fall on already saturated ground as most areas received over an inch of rainfall on Friday evening. There is a spread among the models though, and some like the Nam 3km think the rainfall will be more isolated compared to other like the GFS. Below you can see the most recent GFS total precipitation map for NC. A large swath of 1”+ totals have manifest over WNC through Tuesday AM.

GFS Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

When Will This Move Out?

Well pop-up showers will typically be possible for some on a hot WNC summer afternoon, but the excessive fuel for storms will push out of the area on Tuesday per the most recent model data. In fact, the Euro is showing seasonable temperatures for the next 10 days that are slightly below average! It appears as though the 90’s will subside for WNC momentarily as a tropical wave passes by and clears out the heat dome that has been present for so long. Below you can see the 10 day temperature spread from the European.

Effects From Isaias

WNC will not see any effects from the tropical core of Isaias, but Isaias will enhance the front that will move over the area in the next several days. Therefore it is an indirect effect, but we will still be experiencing those tropical like downpours. The coast of SC though could be a whole different story. Isaias looks to make landfall somewhere along the SC Coast on Monday, packing a punch with winds in excess of 65mph. Below you can see a wind depiction for Isaias as it makes landfall. Somewhere along The SC Coast will experience storm surge, and hurricane force winds in my opinion as the storm approaches to end the day on Monday.

3km Nam Projected Wind Gusts For Isaias Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Hunter Ward

July 11, 2020

Mid 90's Possible Around WNC Next Week 100's Likely In Foothills

Hunter Ward

July 11, 2020

An impressive heat dome will develop over the Southeast next week, and temperatures around Asheville will likely push into the mid 90’s during the mid part of the week. In comparison to the last several days which have felt hot around WNC, temperatures next week will likely run close to 10 degrees higher. Below you can see the most recent temperature spread from the European model.

Which Days Will Be The Hottest?

Tuesday through Thursday will be the hottest days of next week, with some locations even pushing into the mid to upper 90’s. Below you can see the projected highs from the European model on Thursday. Notice all of the 100+ temps all around the Foothills & Piedmont of NC. This will be scorching heat!!

High Temps Thursday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Record Highs Possible

Next week record high temperatures could be overcome on Tuesday, Wednesday, & Thursday around the Southeast. For Asheville the record high temperature on Tuesday is 94 degrees, 95 on Wednesday is the record high, and 94 degrees is the record high ever recorded for Thursday. All of these records seem reachable per the most recent model data. One thing that is hard to account for is how exactly afternoon showers will affect cloud cover. If the heat dome and atmospheric cap are not broken, then showers won’t form and temperatures will soar throughout the day.

Dangerous Heat

These type temperatures will be dangerous for elderly and precautions will need to be taken by everyone to ensure it doesn’t affect you daily. Remember to drink lots of water, and limit your outdoor time to 30 minutes segments. Make sure to have shade nearby where you can take breaks if you are working outdoors. Eat healthy meals if working outdoors to limit the effects from heat exhaustion. If you live near an elderly person, be sure to call or stop in to check on them when the heat is the hottest.

Return To Average Next Week

This heat dome will eventually break down, and looking ahead to next weekend and it does not appear to be quite as hot. A return to the mid to upper 80’s looks likely, but it will still feel hot. Afternoon showers cannot be ruled out each and every day around WNC so please be mindful of that as you plan out your week!

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Hunter Ward

June 28, 2020

Another Round of Saharan Dust Expected Late This Week For NC

Hunter Ward

June 28, 2020

Another plume of dust has made its way off of the African Coast, and we are now tracking its arrival to the United States. Below you can see satellite imagery from the past 7 days. Notice how you can see the initial dust plume dissipate as it reaches the US, then another one manifests deep in the Atlantic.

Source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

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When Will The Second Round of Dust Arrive To NC?

It appears as though the first round of dust is beginning to make its exit back out into the Atlantic, another round though is waiting in the wings. The timing For NC will be late this coming week, and I am think that Wednesday or Thursday will be the worse day, but how exactly the dust traverses the Caribbean remains to be seen. Below you can see a recent satellite image from GOES-16 that shows how the dust has inundated the Caribbean Islands once again.

Source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16natcol/movies/goes16nc.html

First Wave Still Present, Diminished Air Quality Present Over NC Today

Today (Sunday), air quality around NC will be very poor, and the young/elderly should limit outdoor exposure. Signs point to some clearing by Tuesday, but as mentioned above, a second wave is approaching. Below you can see the most recent data for the Asheville area from AirNow.gov.

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Please be mindful of this data as you make plans for the next week. Individuals with breathing difficulties should consider staying indoors as much as possible, especially on Sunday.

Severe Weather Possible Sunday Evening/Monday AM

A strong convective system could get its act together later this afternoon and move towards the mountains of WNC. Will it be considered a MCS (mesoscale convective system) or not remains to be seen, but it does appear as though the atmosphere will ripen for storm development later this evening and into Monday. Below you can see what the most recent NAM 3km projects late this evening. This is just one short range model, but it does show you that a threat is possible.

High Winds, Lightning, & Even Isolated Hail Possible

The main threat in my opinion with these cells will be high winds. Typically with these straight-line wind events we will see several downed trees and power lines along with a vibrant lightning show. Models indicate that there could be some prolonged storm activity into early Monday morning, so that will increase the threat for isolated flash flooding where cells happen to train in place. I will go live if necessary to keep you in the know, but you can always watch the AshevilleWX Weather Cameras live anytime below!

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Hunter Ward

June 27, 2020

Air Quality Continues To Decrease As Saharan Dust Approaches NC

Hunter Ward

June 27, 2020

Air conditions around Asheville and surrounding areas will continue to decrease over the next several days as a dust layer approaches the area. Current air quality indexes indicate that conditions in far SW WNC, and around the Charlotte area have already decreased to impactful levels. Models indicate that the dust will continue to affect our region through the foreseeable future so prolonged outdoor exposure for at risk categories is not advisable. Below you can see the current (as of 11am Saturday am) air quality conditions for portions of the Southeast including North Carolina.

What Does This Mean?

For the next several days the quality of air will be affected by an immense amount of dust that is moving through the area. This dust can be traced all the way back to the Sahara Desert. Wind picks up dust particles from a very dry surface in Africa, and that dust is propelled by those strong winds all the way across the ocean. When the dust arrives, it causes trouble for many who struggle with breathing. Sometimes these dust particles are so small that you can’t even see them, but given enough time outside and they will cause some sort of shortness of breath. Young children and elderly adults with compromised immune system would be wish to limit outdoor times to sessions of 15-30 minutes at a time 2 to 3 times a day.

Air Quality Forecast

When Will The Dust Clear?

It is still somewhat uncertain as to how long the dust lingers, and there are some factors that need to be considered. This first wave of dust will likely clear by mid next week, but there appears to be another plume making it way across the Atlantic that will arrive later next month. Below you can see the progression of the dust over the past several days.

Courtesy of http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

Waves of Haze

This appears to become a reoccurring event over the next several weeks with very limited tropical activity. This is good for those who have trips plans to the coastal areas. Any activity in the tropics will likely occur close to our shores, and it will be limited at that. I will keep you updated on dust progression, but you can always find your current conditions here: airnow.gov.

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Hunter Ward

June 24, 2020

Saharan Air Layer Set To Affect NC This Weekend

Hunter Ward

June 24, 2020

A large plume of dust has moved off the Coast of Africa, and is working its way currently toward the United States. This event has been well documented, I just wanted to do a short update on what you should expect around North Carolina and WNC this weekend. Below you can see the current dust observations and notice how the hazy as really set in around the Caribbean Islands.

Sahara Dust Layer Heading Towards the US Source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

How Will This Affect NC?

That is a great question and this dust is by no means anything to be frightened by. Typically we will see vivid sunrises & sunsets along with a sort of smog coverage during the day. If you remember back to 2015 when we had several wild fires around WNC, these days will be similar to those where a haze sets in throughout the day. Below you can see several tweets including one that shows Jamaica at sunrise yesterday morning. The dust will not be as thick here in NC, but will have similar characteristic to what we are seeing currently across the Caribbean.

Good Morning I guess.

Taken by me pic.twitter.com/oJleeJ22Xu
— Cevan 📸 (@cevancoore) June 23, 2020

Here are a couple of other tweets from various islands showing how the dust is blocking out sunlight.

The view from San Juan PR this evening… SAL (Saharan Air Layer) dust overhead… pic.twitter.com/nfsP5Yry9Y
— James Spann (@spann) June 22, 2020

Ok, last dust pic for today and this one is perhaps the most incredible yet. The comparison photos were sent to me from Mirco Ferro who lives in St. Barthelemy. Check the dates in the photos (top is from March) - both are unfiltered or altered in any way. #SAL #DUST pic.twitter.com/FBwOG5ly1E
— Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) June 21, 2020

Air Quality Issues

Air quality values will drop over the weekend and into next week around WNC so it is advisable to limit outdoor activity. These events are somewhat difficult to forecast, so just how bad the air quality gets has yet to be determined.. but limiting time outside is advisable this weekend, especially for the young and elderly.

Benefits Of Sahara Dust

Low Tropic Activity

With dust present, convection is very limited across the entire ocean and that suppresses any low pressure from gaining momentum. In fact, it is even difficult for pop-up storms to develop when the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) is present.

Vivid Sunrises & Sunsets

Those beautiful reds and yellows will manifest themselves more frequently at sunrise and sunset as light refracts through the dust particles on its way to the surface. Typically at sunrise or sunset, water vapor in the atmosphere refracts sunlight creating those hues of color, but when the dust layer is present water vapor is not needed. So you can expect beautiful sunrises and sunsets this weekend and early next week for all of NC!

Replenishes Beaches & Fertilizes

These beneficial dusts replenish sands on beaches across the whole Northern Hemisphere. They will also settle in your garden and be beneficial for you soil! No this won’t be a natural dump of nutrients, but what dust does happen to accumulate will be washed into the soil and will be similar to adding a dolomite solution to your garden.

Summary

This has been a well documented event so expect coverage. This is nothing new though and has happened in many years of the past. If this persists through the main part of Hurricane season, it will be seen as beneficial in my opinion due to how active of a season the NHC forecasted. It will be smoky looking around WNC this weekend though during the day so please be mindful of that. You can check out the AshevilleWX live cameras to see the dust move in below!

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