Hurricane Sally has moved ashore this morning as a category 2 Hurricane, and is currently unleashing winds of 100mph+ on locations around Gulf Shores, AL. Models are spread regarding where exactly the remnants will track, but several US models suggest that the majority of the precipitation will move right over WNC. The European on the other hand indicates that the rainfall will move to our South, and only limited rainfall will be experienced here in WNC. Below you can see the most recent precipitation totals from the NAM 3km.
Nam 3km Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Flash Flooding Likely Especially Along Blue Ridge Escarpment
The Blue Ridge Escarpment will be under the gun again as Sally pushes through the area. Most all models indicate that this area along the NC/SC border stands the best chance of seeing flooding from this event. Below you can see the most recent GFS model run as well and the vast amount of precipitation it shows moving through.
6z GFS Precipitation totals courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Model Spread
The European model on the other hand shows limited rainfall from Sally for WNC, but hammers the Interior of SC and Central portions of NC. In fact the European model is the much wetter solution as a whole, but it moves the main swath of rainfall to our South, with less effects. See it below..
European Model Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Cold Front To Follow Sally
A refreshing cold front will push through the area following the passing of the remnants of Sally. Rainfall totals may not be certain at this point in time, but what does appear certain are the cooler temperatures to follow. In fact the European model is showing temperatures as low as 39 next Tuesday morning! This would mean a first frost for many locations around WNC in the higher elevations. Wow what a short growing season. If you remember, we had a freeze on May 15th this year. That is only a 4 month growing season for elevations above 4000’ or so. Pretty impressive if this cold front comes to fruition. Below you can see the most recent European model spread regarding temps for the next 10 days.
Euro 10 Day Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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GFS 10 Degrees Warmer
The GFS model is 10 degrees warmer next week regarding morning low temperatures compared to the European model. This will need to be monitored over the next several days, and I expect the models to meet in the middle somewhere. What does look likely are temperatures in the low 40’s during the morning for many locations early next week. I will have more information on this cold front as it becomes available.
GFS Long Range Temp Forecast Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
