Models are beginning to resolve an eerie solution for the Gulf Coast States over the next 2-3 days. A Tropical Depression exiting the FL Keys will have the opportunity to intensify into a Hurricane, with some models indicating that rapid intensification could even be possible. This storm would be named Sally as it intensifies and should be watched very closely as we progress though the next few days. Landfall along the Gulf Coast appears imminent. Below you can see the most recent forecast projected by the HWRF Model.
Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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Model Support
The HWRF model did very well with Hurricane Laura so it must be taken very serious in this situation. Especially when it indicates Rapid Intensification to be possible. Rapid Intensification occurs when a storm drops at least 24 millibars of pressure over the course of 24 hours. This indicates the storm is strengthening at a great rate. Other Hurricane Models like the HMON model also indicate that a strong storm will be possible. Below you can see the most recent forecast depiction from the HMON Model.
12z HMON Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
Flooding Possible Late Next Week From Remnants In WNC
Looking at the most recent GFS model, one can see that a signifiant amount of rainfall will be possible across all of WNC as the remnants of Sally push through the area. Depending on how strong the storm gets, will determine how much rainfall can be generated around the area. Check out the GFS precipitation model below for WNC through Friday. Some locations could see over 5” of rainfall!
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GFS Total Precipitation Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Lots Of Uncertainty
As stated, the models are just now realizing how strong this storm can possibly get. Therefore as we get a better picture of how exactly the system will unfold, ill have a better idea of how it will affect us here in WNC. I do believe that flash flooding is going to be a big storm around WNC to end next week, especially along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. We could also be dealing with some winds from the system, but as stated, more details will be needed as models continue to resolve the solution. Check back soon for more information!
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