The remnants of Laura are currently progressing towards WNC, and winds will begin to pick up around WNC as the afternoon progresses. Gusts to 40mph will be possible through early Sunday morning around the Asheville area, and gusts to 50mph could be possible above 3500’. This will all occur as Laura transitions to a post tropical low pressure system in the Northeast. A strong tail of energy, or a “sting jet” could develop that will enhance these winds. Regardless of whether or not an actual sting jet manifests, the winds will get rather gusty around WNC as what is left of Laura moves through. Below you can see how the low pressure transfers to the NE and the low begins to deepen. That is what will aid our high wind event.
GFS Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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Highest Wind Threat
The winds will begin to pick up later today, and as the night progresses it will get quite gusty around WNC. The highest wind threat will be for elevations along the NC/TN border above 3500’ where isolated locations could see gusts as high as 60 mph. Below you can see a depiction of the high wind gusts that will be possible as we move through tomorrow.
3km NAM Max Wind Gusts Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Will Flash Flooding Be Possible?
Very limited rainfall is expected in most valley locations around WNC including Asheville. I am projecting less than half an inch for most, but if you live along the NC/TN border 1”-2” will be possible. Very isolated flash flooding will be possible, but the main threat will be for high winds. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km precipitation projections.
NAM 3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Summary
All and all the winds are going to be the main story as what is left of Laura moves overhead. Gust to 40mph will be felt in valley locations and above 3500’ gusts over 50mph will be possible. It would be wise this afternoon to secure outdoor accessories that could potently be damaged by high winds. The system will move out by Sunday, and I expect a nice day for most areas, enjoy!
