Tropical Moisture Moves In, Flash Flooding Likely Thru Weekend Around WNC

A steady stream of moisture will begin to push into WNC and the rest of the Southeast beginning later today. Storm chances will increase today around WNC, and rainfall will be likely each afternoon following through early next week. So we switch from an extremely dry pattern to an extremely wet pattern. This will ease drought conditions all over the Southeast, but the flash flooding threat will quickly rise again. Below you can see the most recent European model run. Through the next 6 days it shows 5” of rainfall will be possible at the Asheville Airport according to the most recent European run, and several inches more along the Blue Ridge Escarpment.

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ECMWF Total Precipitation Thru Next Tuesday Provided By Weathermodels.com

Now this is just one run, but we have been seeing this increase in total precipitation over the past several runs. The GFS model is less bullish on total precip but still has over 2” of rainfall possible. We have been seeing both models increase with total rainfall, and that is concerning.

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GFS Total Precipitation Through Tuesday Provided By Weathermodels.com

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Rainfall Returns Today For WNC

The short range models are indicated that beginning today, showers and storms will be the afternoon theme. Looking at the most recent NAM 3km radar depiction, you can see the development of a line of showers later today around 1-2pm. This will move through the majority of WNC, and should drop some much needed rainfall on very dry surfaces.

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Radar Depiction For This Afternoon (Wednesday) Around WNC

Turn Around, Don’t Drown

Last time we experienced flash flooding around Asheville, I saw many videos of drivers driving through high water. This is not safe! Someone must rescue you if your car stalls out! If water begins to rise again around the French Broad River, please do not travel on River Rd. in 3-4 ft of standing water. There are other routes around town that will get you to your destination! Let’s be smart this time and prepare for this excessive rainfall. Please report any flooding that you see to The Ashevillewx Weather Community on Facebook and make sure to check back soon for another update!

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Heat Continues Around WNC Through Late Week, But Relief Is In Sight This Weekend

The past string of days has been one of the hottest streaks on record for May around WNC, and it will continue through at least the middle part of the week(5-Day Forecast). Several locations have topped 90 degrees , and I expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future. Relief does appear to be in sight though, and that will come in the form of a frontal passage. A few scattered showers cannot be ruled out moving into the weekend, but high temperatures on Saturday and Sunday should only top out in the low to mid 80’s. Until then though, it is going to be hot! Below you can see the most recent European run, and it shows the high temperatures throughout the Southeast on Wednesday afternoon. As you can see it projects 90 degrees again for the Asheville Airport.

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ECMWF Projected Temperatures For Wednesday Afternoon Provided By Weathermodels.com

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Chance For Showers Late Week Around WNC

Ahead of the impending frontal passage, there will be an isolated chance for showers both Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon. Currently the GFS is much more bullish on the chance for these to develop compared to the European, so I am watching to see exactly what comes to fruition. Lots of sunshine though appears to be the main theme through the greater part of this week, so have a great Memorial Day and get outside to enjoy this beautiful weather!

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Scattered Showers Thursday On GFS Provided By Weathermodels.com

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Record High Temperatures Possible Around WNC This Weekend

Temperature records could fall around WNC this weekend with many models projecting that the high temperature on both Saturday & Sunday could be in the very high 80’s or low 90’s. The record for May 26th(Sunday) at the Asheville Airport is 90 degrees, so if what models are eluding to comes to fruition this record could certainly be in jeopardy. Below you can see the projected temperatures for Sunday on both the GFS & Euorpean Models. Many locations across the Southeast could even push close to 100 degrees! Saturday appear to have a similar temperature spread, but some models are slightly cooler. This is unprecedented for late May, and one can only hope that this is not a prequel to what will follow this summer.

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GFS Sunday High Temps Provided By Weathermodels.com

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ECMWF Sunday High Temperatures Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

How Long Will This Heatwave Last?

Almost all models extend this heatwave through next weekend, with temperatures in the upper 80’s or low 90’s projected through next Sunday. This could all change of course, but when high pressure like this gets vertically stacked… it usually takes a long time for it to be broken down. That is why the extended forecast still looks like a furnace. Below you can see the European models numerical projection through next weekend for temperatures. It is remarkable that this model is showing such consistency from day to day of near record breaking temperatures.

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Chart Provided By Weathermodels.com

Scattered Showers Possible Thursday & Friday Afternoon

Short range models are indicating that scattered showers are likely for tomorrow & Friday around WNC, with pockets of extremely heavy rainfall. Below you can see the most recent run of the NAM 3km and it has Henderson County getting hammered with rainfall both Thursday & Friday, while Asheville barely sees a drop. Will this come to fruition exactly? Most likely not, but it appears that there will be a greater chance for storm development in Henderson County compared to Buncombe. Showers and storms though cannot be ruled out for all of WNC each day. Some locations are just in a more favorable location for development compared to others.

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3km NAM Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Recap

• Scattered showers possible for isolated locations both Thursday & Friday with over 1” of rainfall possible

• Near record high temperatures projected for WNC Sunday, & several days next week

• Heatwave could extend through next weekend with several days where record high temperatures fall

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Dangerous Weather Day Across Plains Today, Several Violent, Long Track Tornados Possible

The Severe Prediction Center out of Norman, OK has issued a high risk for severe storms today across Texas, Oklahoma, & portions of Kansas. Several violent long track tornados cannot be ruled out, and this will put many populous areas under the gun including Oklahoma City Metro. These folks are experienced with severe weather though and have properly prepared. Many schools districts in Oklahoma have let out class for today in order to minimize the threat for movement this afternoon around the area. Below you can see the High risk imagery that the SPC released, along with a probability map of where tornados could form. The SPC believes that in portions of W OK there will be a 30% chance of seeing a tornado within 30 miles of a given location. That is an extremely high probability! The atmosphere is absolutely juiced and there is almost endless fuel today for storms.

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Model Data

Looking at the most recent HRRR, storms begin to develop around 2pm this evening and will persist through sunset. Large hail, tornados, and even long track tornados appear to be possible as the upper level low associated with these storms goes negative tilt. Below you can see the most recent radar depiction produced by the HRRR for 5pm this evening. I have identified 7 hook echos that are visible enough to be identified. This is a very dangerous looking radar depiction..

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Other indices that point to tornadic development include the Severe Tornado Parameter or STP which measure severe different ingredients that produce tornados. Below you can see the most recent HRRR model projection of what STP’s will be this afternoon when storms develop.

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HRRR Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

An astonishing max of over 37 is projected!!! I usually wow at 7+, but 37 shows me that a very rare atmosphere will be in place, and an extremely large and violent tornado will be likely. So the main take away here is that a major severe weather day is in store for the Plains today, and it will likely make major news this afternoon. Please make sure that your family and friends in these areas are weather aware today!

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Southeast Heat Wave On Tap For Next Week

Mild temperatures have been the story over the past several days, but that switch will flip moving into next week, and an extended heat wave looks to be possible. As always we here in WNC will be 3-5 degrees cooler then locations at lower elevations in the Southeast, but upper 80’s or even low 90’s will be possible later next week. Some locations have the chance to reach 100 degrees in the southeast, and that would be quite early in the year to be reaching triple digits. Below you can see the most recent GFS temperature map for the US late week (5/24).

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Scattered Showers Possible Daily

As we work towards this extended heat wave, scattered showers will be possible daily around WNC. Where and when these showers develop is still uncertain, but the likelihood for isolated development each afternoon looks likely. Sunday and into Monday the chance for rainfall will increase around WNC as a frontal passage makes its way through. Below you can see the most recent depiction of the 3km NAM on Sunday afternoon. You can see that some isolated showers develop in higher elevations, and then those move into the valleys below. These showers and storms won’t ruin your day, but rain could fall heavy at times if you get under a developing storm cell.

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Recap

• Scattered showers likely this weekend, and a better chance for storms exists Sunday night & Into Monday

• A strong ridge will develop in the Atlantic next week sending warm moisture air into the southeast

• This will bring a heatwave to all on the South where some locations could push over 100 degrees

• Temperatures around WNC could push into the low 90’s late next week, so now is the time to make sure your A/C is prepared!

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Low 40's And Even Upper 30's Possible Tuesday And Wednesday AM Around WNC

A front moved through last and noticeably cooler temperatures have set in for the beginning of the week. Temperatures could fall into the low 40’s or even the upper 30’s on isolated locations on Tuesday & Wednesday AM. This could damage some early crops, so please protect your garden if possible. Below you can see the Nam 3km temperatures for WNC on Wednesday AM. These could be a little low, I expect somewhere to see the upper 30’s.

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Temperatures Rebound Into The Mid To Upper 70’s Thursday

If you are dreading these cold mornings, have no fear.. warmth will return to round out the week. This anomalous cold spell should be the last that we see of the cold temperatures until Fall. But.. the rain will not stop.. Below are the GFS Thursday temperatures, and with this warmth will come the chance for a few scattered showers.

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Showers Return For The Weekend…………….

Imagine that, rain returns to the forecast for the weekend. So this could be 6 out of the last 7 Fridays that we see rainfall. Unfortunately, another strong front looks to push through the area on Sunday into Monday as well. It appears a soggy weekend is again on tap.

Recap

-Unseasonably cold temperatures Tuesday & Wednesday Morning

-Warmth & 70’s/80’s Return on Thursday

-Isolated Storms Possible Thursday, Friday, & Saturday

-Heavier Rain Possible Sunday Into Next Week

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Rainfall Continues Around WNC Tomorrow, 40's Return Monday/Tuesday AM

Several rounds of rainfall will again be possible tomorrow beginning early tomorrow morning. These showers and storms could bring isolated flash flooding along streams and rivers around the area, and some mudslides can even not be ruled out. Below you can see the most recent HRRR model run and it shows a brief break in the rain this evening, and then more rainfall moving in early tomorrow morning.

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Mid 40’s Return To WNC This Week

Looking ahead to early next week, a strong front will bring through unseasonably cold temperatures to the area. Many locations will fall in the the mid or even low 40’s on Tuesday morning, and that could be devastating to some early crops. If you can cover you gardens on Tuesday night in order to minimize damage. Below you can see the most recent GFS model temperature depiction for WNC on Tuesday morning. As you can see, widespread mid 40’s look to be possible. This will be jacket weather so hopefully you haven’t put them up just yet!! Check back for another update soon and have a great weekend!

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Heavy Rain Likely Around WNC Saturday Night And Into Sunday, Then Below Average Temps Move In Next Week

A stubborn front continues to push towards WNC, and that will continue to bring the chance for scattered showers and storms over the next couple of days. As we progress towards the weekend though, this front will finally make it here.. and excessive rainfall could again be possible. Below you can see the most recent GFS Precipitation Totals through the weekend, and many locations look to pick up over 1.5” of total accumulation.

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Flash Flooding Could Occur Around WNC Late Saturday Night

Some streams and rivers could rise out of their banks late Saturday night or Sunday morning as heavy rain falls and some isolated locations pick up 2.5” of rainfall. Locations along the NC/TN border will see an enhancement in rainfall will upper level winds dominating from the west. Locations like Boone, NC could see 3”+ of rainfall before the event ends Sunday afternoon. Cold temperatures move in to follow, and what many like to call “Blackberry Winter” could be upon us.

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Cooler Temperatures Move In, Low 40’s Likely Tuesday AM

An anomalous temperature pattern appears to be setting up over the next several days, and cold air will make its way from Canada all the way down South. I hope that you didn’t put up your jacket yet, because you are certainly going to need it on several mornings next week! In fact, I can’t rule out some locations dipping into the 30’s on select mornings next week. Some details still need to be hammered out on exactly how cold it will get, but below is a depiction of temperatures early Tuesday morning from the GFS around WNC.

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GFS Temperatures Tuesday AM

Check back soon for another update regarding the rainfall potential for this weekend, and have a great Thursday!

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Strong Storms Possible This Afternoon Around WNC

A relatively stout surface front will push through WNC this afternoon and into tomorrow, bringing with it the chance for thunderstorms, heavy rain, high winds and even some isolated hail. As you can see below on the most recent HRRR run, several rounds of storms look to develop around 2pm and those will persist through the evening hours. Many location will receive .5”+ of precipitation from heavy rainfall, with isolated higher totals. Some high wind gusts will also be possible with these storms, so please be mindful of that this afternoon.

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HRRR Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Rain Continues Into Sunday

Scattered showers will persist through the morning Sunday, and some storm re-development could occur with adequate sunlight Sunday afternoon. Rainfall could be heavy at times, and some locations could pick up an inch of rainfall over the next 24-36 hours.

Some Models Hint At More Rainfall Next Week

The GFS model continue to insist that southerly flow from the gulf will enhance moisture over WNC through Tuesday. This would bring heavy rainfall to the Blue Ridge Escarpment area, and could create some flooding concerns. Below is the GFS precipitation totals through Wednesday. It struggles with the mesoscale activity that will occur today, but picks up on the upslope flow that looks possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

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GFS Precipitation Totals Through Wednesday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Compare that with the European models precip total, and you can see how the GFS is more bullish on this upslope flow. I tend to side with the GFS on these instances, and believe that more precipitation will be possible both Tuesday and Wednesday compared to less.

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Euro Precipitation Totals Through Wednesday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

A good bit of uncertainty remains regarding precipitation totals as we progress into next week, but check back soon for another update... and watch for storm development this afternoon on the WNC live cameras!

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Thunderstorms Return To The Forecast For WNC Over The Next Several Days

The chance for thunderstorms will increase over the next few days around WNC as a cold pool aloft allows storm initialization to occur. Some locations around WNC may see very minimal t-storm activity, whereas other locations (like Brevard) could see them each day. For Thursday afternoon, the HRRR shows development along the NC/TN border where the cold pool aloft is the strongest, but development in typical locations along the NC/SC border could also see T-storms this afternoon. A lesser chance for storms exists around Asheville, but they cannot be ruled out nonetheless. Below you can see the most recent run of the HRRR at 1pm.

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As you can see, those pop-up showers indeed develop in isolated locations this afternoon between 1-6pm. Where exactly they will setup is not certain, but the likelihood for storms appears more prevalent on the NC/TN border. Some embedded hail can also not be ruled out with these cells, so please be mindful of that this evening and into the afternoon tomorrow. Please report any severe weather you see to the NWS and to AshevilleWX’s Facebook page. Check back for another update soon and check the WNC Live Cameras to watch weather develop this afternoon around WNC.

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