A relatively stout surface front will push through WNC this afternoon and into tomorrow, bringing with it the chance for thunderstorms, heavy rain, high winds and even some isolated hail. As you can see below on the most recent HRRR run, several rounds of storms look to develop around 2pm and those will persist through the evening hours. Many location will receive .5”+ of precipitation from heavy rainfall, with isolated higher totals. Some high wind gusts will also be possible with these storms, so please be mindful of that this afternoon.
Rain Continues Into Sunday
Scattered showers will persist through the morning Sunday, and some storm re-development could occur with adequate sunlight Sunday afternoon. Rainfall could be heavy at times, and some locations could pick up an inch of rainfall over the next 24-36 hours.
Some Models Hint At More Rainfall Next Week
The GFS model continue to insist that southerly flow from the gulf will enhance moisture over WNC through Tuesday. This would bring heavy rainfall to the Blue Ridge Escarpment area, and could create some flooding concerns. Below is the GFS precipitation totals through Wednesday. It struggles with the mesoscale activity that will occur today, but picks up on the upslope flow that looks possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
Compare that with the European models precip total, and you can see how the GFS is more bullish on this upslope flow. I tend to side with the GFS on these instances, and believe that more precipitation will be possible both Tuesday and Wednesday compared to less.
A good bit of uncertainty remains regarding precipitation totals as we progress into next week, but check back soon for another update... and watch for storm development this afternoon on the WNC live cameras!