Tropical Moisture Moves In, Flash Flooding Likely Thru Weekend Around WNC

A steady stream of moisture will begin to push into WNC and the rest of the Southeast beginning later today. Storm chances will increase today around WNC, and rainfall will be likely each afternoon following through early next week. So we switch from an extremely dry pattern to an extremely wet pattern. This will ease drought conditions all over the Southeast, but the flash flooding threat will quickly rise again. Below you can see the most recent European model run. Through the next 6 days it shows 5” of rainfall will be possible at the Asheville Airport according to the most recent European run, and several inches more along the Blue Ridge Escarpment.

ECMWF Total Precipitation Thru Next Tuesday Provided By Weathermodels.com

Now this is just one run, but we have been seeing this increase in total precipitation over the past several runs. The GFS model is less bullish on total precip but still has over 2” of rainfall possible. We have been seeing both models increase with total rainfall, and that is concerning.

GFS Total Precipitation Through Tuesday Provided By Weathermodels.com

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Rainfall Returns Today For WNC

The short range models are indicated that beginning today, showers and storms will be the afternoon theme. Looking at the most recent NAM 3km radar depiction, you can see the development of a line of showers later today around 1-2pm. This will move through the majority of WNC, and should drop some much needed rainfall on very dry surfaces.

Radar Depiction For This Afternoon (Wednesday) Around WNC

Turn Around, Don’t Drown

Last time we experienced flash flooding around Asheville, I saw many videos of drivers driving through high water. This is not safe! Someone must rescue you if your car stalls out! If water begins to rise again around the French Broad River, please do not travel on River Rd. in 3-4 ft of standing water. There are other routes around town that will get you to your destination! Let’s be smart this time and prepare for this excessive rainfall. Please report any flooding that you see to The Ashevillewx Weather Community on Facebook and make sure to check back soon for another update!