Models continue to illustrate an extremely wet picture as we move into the weekend and into next week around the Southeast. Data suggests that some locations around the southeast could experience over 5” of rainfall over the next 6 days, and that would bring creeks and rivers out of their banks. Below you can see the most recent Weather Prediction Center’s Forecast for total precipitation through early next week.
This is a blend of all models, and really illustrates how widespread the flooding could be. Locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment will likely receive the most amount of rainfall as the mountains wring out the tropical moisture as it streams through. I have provided below zoomed in versions on WNC of the most recent runs of the GFS & Euro. As you can see the Euro is still much more bullish on total amounts of rainfall.. but totals continue to steady rise on the GFS.
As you can see the GFS shows half the amount of precip compared to the Euro, but the GFS has been moving higher with rainfall totals over the past several runs. On the other hand, the Euro has been steady with projecting 5”+ of rainfall for Asheville. It has shown that for the past several runs, and needs to be taken seriously. When precipitation maximums begin to show up on the Blue Ridge Escarpment with 10”+, that is a huge red flag to me. This tropical moisture will linger for days, and could really create a mess for WNC. I will update again when new data become available, check back soon for another update!