Warmer & Drier Conditions Expected In WNC During Last Week Of Summer

That’s right, Fall officially begins on September 22.. but this week won’t feel much like a prequel.  Warm conditions are expected for all of WNC this week, with highs in the mid 80’s.  A few pop-up showers could be possible, but models appear less than optimistic that these will be widespread on any afternoon this week.  That is a great thing because our stream and rivers need to drain!  Some locations in the area especially around Pensacola, NC & Fairview, NC saw flooding from Florence, and more rainfall would just complicate those cleanups.

 

Are The Tropics Still Active? 

We are seeing a relaxation of activity in the tropics currently, so for the next 7-10 days.. there appears to be no immediate threat to the US.  That doesn’t mean that we are out of the woods this tropical season, it just means the atmosphere is less likely to produce tropical development over the next couple of weeks.  We can still get Hurricanes into November, so this season is far from over. 

 

More Rain Likely Next Week

Long range models indicate a strong front pushing across the US early next week.  This could bring the threat of severe storms along with it for our area.  It’s still a bit far out to forecast for this time frame, but know that I have my eye on it.  Muggy conditions will likely be the story though ahead of the front. 

Check back for another article soon detailing your weekend forecast!

 

Florence Rain Set To Move Out Of WNC By Early Tomorrow AM, Gusty Winds May Remain Through Evening

New VLOG

Florence Heading North

Current short range models indicate that WNC only has 6 or so more hours of rainfall to endure from form Hurricane Florence. Rainfall totals around the area do not appear as though they will be as high as what model initially indicated, but flash flood warnings are currently up for Southwestern McDowell County. Northwestern Rutherford County, Eastern Henderson County, Western Polk County, &Eastern Buncombe County… All locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Models show that a more northern track will now occur with Florence, and will keep more moisture from inundating WNC.

Flooding Can Still Occur..

Over the next 6-12 hours, flooding is still possible, but it does appear that major rivers around the area will stay in their banks, especially around Asheville. Please be careful when traveling around WNC, many evacuees are attempting to return home and traffic is heavy. Ponding on the roadways has also slowed traffic, so please limit your frustration and be glad that you are only experiencing heavy rainfall.

Rainfall Ending

Below you can see two model depictions of Flo moving out later this evening. Both short range models believe that the western movement will halt, and a more northern steering component will take over. This means heavier rainfall for locations like Greensboro and north, but less rainfall for areas in the Western part of the state. This storm has been unpredictable from the beginning, so this should come as no surprise that the track has changed.

HRRR Model

12z NAM 3km

Stubborn Gusty Winds Could Persist

Models do not move Florence’s winds out as quickly compared to the rainfall. Gusty winds could persist until late in the evening Monday or even Tuesday for many locations. These gusts could top 40mph in higher elevation locations, so please be mindful of that. Trees can still be toppled, and power outages can still occur, even after the rainfall moves out. Luckily, many have been spared.. and power seems to be available to most.

Updated Precipitation Map & New VLOG On Heavy Rain From Florence Set To Affect WNC

Updated Precipitation Map & New VLOG On Heavy Rain From Florence Set To Affect WNC

Florence will begin to affect Western North Carolina sometime tomorrow afternoon. My best guess is from 2-4pm rainfall will begin, but that is a guess due to the nature of how this storm has evolved. You can see for the projection map below that 3”-5” of rainfall is certainly possible thru Tuesday morning, so this will not be a short event. Areas along the Blue Ridge Escarpment will see more rainfall compared to the Asheville area. Totals along the Eastern Escarpment will range from 5”-8”+.

Flooding Main Concern With Florence For WNC

Flooding Main Concern With Florence For WNC

Models continue to suggest that Florence will eventually track over WNC after it makes landfall. There is still vast disagreement on how much precipitation will actually be dropped in the mountains though. Models like the European model bring around 5” of rainfall for Downtown Asheville through Monday evening, with 10”+ maximums along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. On the other hand, the less consistent GFS model on sees a couple of inches of rain for WNC, and only 3”-4” of rain along the Escarpment. There is a huge different in 10”+ and only a couple of inches. Therefore, I don’t want to make any rash determinations.. but I do believe the Euro will be correct.

Heavy Rainfall, Flooding, & Tropical Storm Force Winds Will All Be Possible This Weekend in WNC As Hurricane Florence Moves Through

Heavy Rainfall, Flooding, & Tropical Storm Force Winds Will All Be Possible This Weekend in WNC As Hurricane Florence Moves Through

Models have began to close into the consensus that Hurricane Florence will make landfall somewhere around Wilmington, NC late tomorrow evening or early Friday morning. Rainfall totals will reach over 20” on the Cost of NC, and storm surge could be over 20 feet. Back here in WNC, model trends over the past 36 hours paint an entirely different picture then what was originally thought.. and now we are in the path of a dissipating Florence. Below you can see the European Model and its rainfall totals. Notice the wind field at landfall, and the massive rainfall totals. One can also see the precipitation maximum showing up along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. This is worrisome to me, because these signatures always seem to increase as the storm approaches.

Hurricane Florences Sets Eye On Southeast Coast, Then WNC

Hurricane Florences Sets Eye On Southeast Coast, Then WNC

This morning Hurricane Florence is still a strong category 4 Hurricane and is on a direct path for the coasts of North Carolina & South Carolina. Storm surge could top 20’ in some locations, and all who live on the coast in these two states have been asked to evacuate. Below you can see the most recent run of the GFS model (6z Wednesday). Most models have began to hit on a storm that traverses the coast from basically Wilmington south to Myrtle Beach. Then the storm moves inland. This would be a nightmare scenario for the Coasts of NC & SC. Sadly, there is a god chance this solution is not to far off from what actually happens.