Hunter Ward

December 24, 2020

Projected Snowfall Totals On The Rise For Christmas Eve/ Christmas Snow Around WNC

Hunter Ward

December 24, 2020

Model data continues to roll in and we are pouring over every single bit of it. The theme since last nights update is the idea of higher than projected snowfall totals. Many models now indicate that 2”-4” of snowfall will be possible for most all of Buncombe County. Surrounding counties also have the opportunity to see accumulating snowfall, and as you progress toward the NC/TN border, 6”-8”+ could be found. Below you can see our updated projected snowfall totals for this event on the map that Evan has produced. A widespread 2”-4” is possible in Buncombe Co. through Christmas Night. This will be a prolonged event, so even if you don’t see snowfall on the first round, there will be several chances through Christmas Day.

Map Created By Evan Fisher In Coordination With Meteorologist Hunter Ward

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New Model Data

Below ill show several model solutions for you to observe. Each is a precipitation depiction forecast, and then the ensuing photo will be of the snowfall map associated with that model. This will give you an idea of where our forecast is based.

NAM 3km Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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HRRR Model

HRRR Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com

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HRRR Snowfall Map Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com

Short Range Canadian Model

Flash Freeze Possible

As temperatures crash this evening right as the sun is setting, there will be a chance for a Flash Freeze around WNC. Roadways will not have enough time to dry up as temperatures plummet into the 20’s in only a short amount of time. Below you can see the sounding from the Nam 3km for Asheville at 8pm tonight. The temperature in the sounding at 5pm is around 50 degrees, so a 20+ degree temperature drop in 3 hours is likely. Fascinating stuff!!

Nam 3km sounding Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com

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Cold Hammer To Follow

The cold will really push into WNC on Christmas Day, and high will only be in the upper 20’s. Winds will be gusting over 20mph at times around Asheville, and it will be a bitter day to be outside. Wind chills will be close to negative on Saturday morning in the valleys and -10 degrees above 3500’. This is the coldest temperatures we have seen in a couple of years here in WNC. Bundle up, let those facets drip, & stay warm!!

Saturday AM Windchill courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Live Update Tonight At 5pm

Join me tonight right as the event is beginning at 5pm. I will go over the most recent model data and get you prepared for the Christmas snowfall ahead!

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Hunter Ward

December 23, 2020

Accumulating Snowfall Likely For Most Around WNC Christmas Eve & Into Christmas

Hunter Ward

December 23, 2020

Short range models continue to bring in new data as we progress towards Christmas Eve night, but the theme over the past 24 hours has been to increase the potential for very strong backside snow showers. After heavy rainfall moves through tomorrow morning, winds will pick up and moisture will begin to stream in from the West. Models continue to amp up this Upper Level Low and its been a while since we have seen one this strong, so I believe accumulating snowfall will be possible even in many valley locations.

Snowfall Map Created By Evan Fisher In Collaboration With Meteorologist Hunter Ward

Short Range Model Data & Timing

Model data continues to come in and a more clear picture continues to be resolved. What appears likely now is a strong push of rain Christmas Eve morning, then as the sun sets tomorrow evening.. snow showers will develop along the NC/TN border and high winds will propel those flakes into the valleys below. Below you can see a precipitation depiction from the most recent HRRR model.

HRRR Model Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com

Here is another short range index that I like to look at called the SREF Plumes. For the Asheville Airport, current plumes are showing around and inch of accumulation possible. As you work farther north from this station those totals will likely increase.

How Long Will Snow Showers Last

Several short range models are indicating that a batch of moisture will be created over the Great Lakes area and then move towards WNC. This Northwest flow moisture will re-energize the trough that has been laid down, and will likely create another batch of snowfall for many through the late hours of Christmas night. I have attached the most recent snowfall accumulation map per the NAM 3km as well as the precipitation depiction. Watch that backside Upper Level Low slam into the mountains of WNC at the end of the run. That indicates snow flurries will last through most of Christmas day, and then another batch of moisture could bring snow showers as the sun sets.

Nam 3km Snowfall Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Isolated Flash Flooding Possible Christmas Eve AM

The trough that moves through beginning early Christmas AM will bring heavy rainfall, especially along The Blue Ridge Escarpment. Isolated totals of 4”+ will be possible. Around Asheville, I am expecting a quick 1”-2” for most in and around the city, with higher totals when you travel South, and lower totals when you travel North. Below you can see the most recent Nam3km precipitation projections for the first initial push of moisture.

3km Nam Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Bitter Cold To Follow

The European temperature spread shows a very bitter weekend for WNC and I am going to advise that you leave those Christmas lights up until next weekend! Check out that low for Sunday morning at 12 degrees! Also check out the Nam3km wind chill projection for Friday night! Many high elevation locations will easily go into negative territory. This will be the coldest air in a couple of years that we have had here in WNC. It will be wise to keep a facet dripping at night to help keep your water from freezing up! Bundle up because its going to be a cold weekend!

Wind Chill Values Friday Evening Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Hunter Ward

December 21, 2020

Chances Increasing Around WNC For Many Wishing For A White Christmas

Hunter Ward

December 21, 2020

Model data continues to come in, but what has been consistent is the idea of very strong Upper Level Low moving over WNC later Christmas Eve night and into Early Christmas Morning. The timing of this low will be crucial for snow accumulation, and a late night/early Christmas morning arrival will be imperative for snow to accumulate in valley locations. Below you can see the map that Evan Fisher has put together for us regarding our thoughts currently on your chances for seeing a White Christmas. Which we are considering measurable snowfall on the ground on Christmas Morning.

Model Data

Timing is really what will be key with this system to get accumulating snowfall down into many valley locations where most of the population lives. If this backside Upper Level Low comes through right as the sun is setting Christmas Eve night, then the chance for accumulation increases. If it comes through around noon on Christmas Eve then we will just see some festive snow showers that accumulation on grassy surfaces. Watch the GFS below for the most recent depiction of what could unfold.

Short Range Model Data

Now let’s compare the GFS with what the NAM is showing. Keep in mind that this occurs at the very end of the NAM and it is just getting into range. Also not the severe threat for WNC on Thursday during the day. Don’t be surprised to see Thunderstorms sometime during the day on Christmas Eve.

Christmas Eve Thunderstorm Threat

Ahead of the snowfall chance, a wicked arctic front will move through. This strong gradient will create great lift and thunderstorms will develop out ahead of the frontal passage. Some locations could even see hail or a switch to snow/grapel as the arctic front pushes through during the day Thursday. These dynamic systems can produce interesting weather and heavy bursts of snow will be likely during the day above 4500’.

Sharp Temperature Drop & Flash Freeze Possible Christmas Eve

The coldest temperatures of the season so far are coming on Christmas. Watch for a flash freeze on Christmas Eve night and into Christmas Morning as wet roads are greeted with temps in the 20’s. The high will likely not rise above freezing on Christmas day, and snow flurries could be flying for many throughout the day. It will not be a good day to get outside and try out your new toys! Lows on Christmas night will drop into the low teens and even single digits in many areas. Locations above 4500’ could fall below zero! Watch below as the GFS depicts the incoming arctic front!

GFS Temperatures Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com

Cold Weekend Ahead

The long range European temperature spread is bitter cold for next weekend. Lows will drop into the teens each night and we will struggle to push out of the 40’s each day.

Euro Temperature Spread Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Long Range Models Favorable For Snowfall

I have my eye on this pattern change, and the long range indices are pointing towards a -NAO developing and a -AO also coming to fruition. That means cold air will be dumping into the central portion of the US and storms that come through will be turned up the East Coast rather than moving out to sea. A perfect recipe for a strong winter storm on the East Coast around the begining of the New Year. I am watching around the 30th-1st for a low pressure to come out of Mexico. This has a chance of running into some very favorable Canadian or even Arctic air. This occurs because it appears that the Polar Vortex will split, and that cold air that usually is bottled up north, will move down south. Right now I am just watching this, but I will have more information on possibilities as model runs become more consistent.

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Hunter Ward

December 18, 2020

Arctic Front To Bring Bitter Cold To WNC For Christmas, Snow Showers Possible

Hunter Ward

December 18, 2020

A very complicated weather week is in store for WNC, and this will all lead up to a strong arctic front that will move through the area on Christmas. This front will likely bring a rain changing to snow event for many locations in WNC, and the chance for a white Christmas is possible. Lots of details remain to be hammered out though since we are indeed 7 days away from the front moving through. First and foremost though, I want to take a look at the chance for a light icing event around WNC on Sunday morning.

Sunday Morning Threat

A weak low will make its way out of the Gulf with moderate moisture early Sunday morning. Cold air will entrench itself along the Blue Ridge Escarpment, and isolating icing could occur. Short range models continue to resolve this solution, but below take a look at what the most recent Canadian Short Range Model shows.

notice how that high pressure erodes away slowly as the moisture moves in. That is what is concerning to me. Temperatures at the surface along the Escarpment will hover around 30 degrees, and some light icing could be possible.

High Elevation Snow Showers Likely Sunday Night & Monday

As the front passes by and transfers to the Atlantic, snow showers will pick up above 3500’ in WNC. Some snow showers could break containment of the High Elevations and move into valley areas below, but more information will be needed to make that call. Below you can see the most recent GFS model run depiction.

Now let’s compare that will what the European model is showing. The key to focus on is the Northwest Flow signature that shows up on the NC/TN border as precipitation is exiting out to sea. This is a sign that moisture will be strained out along the Appalachians.

0z European Model Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com

Home Much Snow From These First Two Systems For Above 3500’?

A tricky question, but I think another general 1”-3” or 2”-4” will be possible above 3500’ along the NC/TN border through Tuesday evening. Some details may change with this, but at the moment that is my best guess regarding just exactly what to expect around Boone, Banner Elk, Beech Mountain, and other high elevation locations. It does appear though to be a great week to be skiing!!

Christmas Polar Front Details

No this isn’t a Christmas train that travels through WNC, this will be a wicked cold front that keeps you inside all day on Christmas! A massive lobe of the polar vortex will break of and makes it way over portions of the Southeast. This will bring temperatures on Christmas day of teens in the morning, and only a high in the low 30’s. Not the best weather to try out those new toys. Below you can see a depiction of the arctic front moving into WNC.

Will It Snow At Your House In WNC On Christmas?

7 days out this is still an extremely tough call. These type frontal passages are known as anafronts and are very difficult to predict. I have seen many times the moisture just be too far behind the front to accumulate when it turns to snow. I do however believe that most of WNC has a decent chance of seeing some form of snowfall on Christmas! It could just be a stray flurry or two, but come its snow on Christmas, how often do we even have the chance? The last time WNC saw snow on Christmas was in 2010. This doesn’t appear to unfold like that event, but I am watching each model run and will update you when I have a better idea of how exactly things will unfold!

Euro Long Range Temps Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Hunter Ward

December 15, 2020

Light Icing Possible Around Portions Of WNC Wednesday AM

Hunter Ward

December 15, 2020

A Miller B type system will move into WNC late tonight where a cold wedge will have entrenched itself over WNC. This shallow layer of cold air that is funneled in by a strong high to our NW will create a difficult forecast for the area. Locations along The Blue Ridge Escarpment will have the highest chance to see accumulating ice, but the chance will be possible for slight ice accumulation even into the Asheville area. Below you can see a map produced by the National Weather Service regarding projected ice totals.

Map Data Created By NWS & Map Produced By Evan Fisher

Model Details

Models continue to show light freezing rain moving into WNC very late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Though light, this could cause some slight problems on roadways in counties that border the NC/SC line. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km precipitation depiction.

Now you can compare that with the GFS model that also shows the light icing. Once again, I think that this will be a light event, but even light icing can cause isolated problems for some. Initially a few sleet pellets or even snowflakes could mix in as precipitation begins, but this will quickly switch to rain or freezing rain for most all. As you progress towards the Piedmont the chance for more significant icing will come into play. Locations like Hickory and Greensboro have a much better chance to see Ice accretion compared to Asheville.

Northwest Flow Snow Possible On Backside

Several details still need to be resolved, but there is a chance on the backside of this storm that we see some snowflakes flying around the Asheville area. This would be Thursday morning if it were to occur. I expect locations above 3000’ along the NC/TN border to certainly see snowfall on this backside with at least a light accumulation. Above 4500’ 1”-2” will be possible and 3”+ will be likely in those highest elevations above 5000’. Below you can see the most recent projected snowfall map from the NAM 3km.

Extended Forecast

A cold front will dominate the area through the end of the week, and then Saturday appears to be the choice day of the weekend! Following Saturday, rainfall could move in late on Sunday bringing around a half inch of rain or so to the area. Check out the most recent European model 10 Day projection below.

10 Day Euro Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Hunter Ward

December 12, 2020

Heavy Rainfall Expect For WNC On Monday, Then A Wintry Mix Possible Wednesday

Hunter Ward

December 12, 2020

Two intriguing storms will move through WNC early this week, and each system will have its own unique effects. The first low pressure will bring heavy rainfall to most of the area. I am expecting a widespread 1”-2” of rainfall, and some high elevation locations above 4500’ could see some mixing with snow. Then my focus will turn to the Tuesday night/Wednesday event, which appears to have the capacity to affect a much greater portion of WNC with wintry weather. The form of precipitation that will fall is still very much up in the air for Wednesday, but many models are beginning to show an icy solution. First let’s discuss this initial push of moisture, and how much rainfall you can expect for your area.

Model Rainfall Totals For Monday

Below you can see the most recent GFS and how much rainfall it depicts from this first frontal passage. Some flash flooding will be possible as close to 2” of rainfall falls around the Asheville area.

GFS Total Precipitation Through Monday Evening Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Now let’s compare that GFS with the European model output below. As you can there is good agreement that over 1.5” of rain will fall across most of WNC. Flash flooding will be possible in isolated locations, and ponding on the roadways could be a problem on the morning commute Monday.

Euro Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Wintry Mix Possible Late Tuesday & Early Wednesday

Models continue to focus on a second wave that will move through WNC late Tuesday or Early Wednesday that will take advantage of an exiting cold front to our North. As a shallow layer of cold air sets up at the surface, ice could develop across WNC & The Blue Ridge Escarpment as the day progresses on through Wednesday. Below you can see the most recent European Model, and how it plays out the two systems over the next 5 days.

GFS Comparison

There are several similarities among the most recent GFS (6z) and the most recent European (0z) runs. They both build in a very strong high pressure after the first storm exits. Thus allowing for a shallow layer of cold air to entrench itself at the surface. These type systems are considered Miller B type systems. Typically somewhere in the Piedmont of NC always sees ice from this type of setup. Depending on how strong the High pressure is will determine how far that cold air gets into WNC. The closer you live to The Blue Ridge Escarpment, the better chance you have for seeing accumulating ice Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Below you can see what the most recent GFS shows.

GFS Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com

Ice, Ice, Baby

The chances for ice have significantly increased over the past few days for the Tuesday night-Wednesday time frame. Depending on how strong the high pressure to our north is will determine how far into the valleys the cold air infiltrates. Below you can see the most recent GFS and what it showed regarding freezing rain/ice accumulation. This should be taken with a grain of salt, but it gives you an idea of what the models are spitting out currently regarding totals. Some snow could mix in with this ice at the beginning, but we still have soo many detail to nail down. Check back soon for another update, i’ll have a couple of live updates coming your way this week!

GFS Freezing Rain Map Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com

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Hunter Ward

December 6, 2020

AshevilleWX Projected Snowfall Totals December 7th 2020

Hunter Ward

December 6, 2020

A weak Gulf low will move through WNC bringing a slight front end thump of snowfall for some, then after the front passes and the Upper Level Low begins to move through.. Northwest flow moisture will kick up. Below you can see my projected snowfall totals for this event on the map Evan Fisher has produced.

Map Produced By AshevilleWX Team Member Evan Fisher

Recent Model Data

Below you can see the most recent HRRR model run at the moment. Notice how it shows that stripe of precipitation making its way up the spine of the Appalachians… This will bring the first thump of moisture to WNC early tomorrow morning. Then around mid day, winds will switch and blow out of the NW. An Upper Level Low will push through the area and another round of snow showers will be likely.

Model Snowfall Totals

I have been keeping you up to date on the recent snowfall total produced by the NAM 3km and as you can notice from my last article, this run has increased that stripe of accumulation across Buncombe. These type signs must be taken seriously. They are signs that Northwest flow moisture will break containment and affect the lower elevations of WNC. This will occur due to very high wind gusts tomorrow night and into Tuesday. Gusts over 35mph will be possible around the Asheville area.

Surprises Possible

Don’t be surprised if you see snow falling early tomorrow or tomorrow night. This will be a very dynamic storm and it has been one that has been very difficult to predict. Make sure to report all of your observations to The AshevilleWX Weather Community on Facebook!

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Hunter Ward

December 6, 2020

Snow Showers Likely For Many Around WNC Monday

Hunter Ward

December 6, 2020

An interesting system will move through the mountains of WNC on Monday and into Tuesday, bringing the chance of snow showers for many around the area. Not everyone is going to see snowflakes from this system, but several valley locations will certainly get in on the action. Earlier I had discussed how we had the chance of experiences some interaction with a Gulf Low and an Upper Level Low. That does appear to still happen Monday, but the surface Gulf Low appears to have sped up just a tad. This limits the amount of snowfall that I believe will be possible along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. I will produce a snowfall map later today for my live update, but here are my thoughts currently on where snow will fall. Watch below as I show you the most recent NAM3km precipitation progression.

Nam3km Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Nam3km Projected Snowfall Map

Below you can see the projected snowfall map from the most recent Nam3km. One thing that really sticks out to me is the stripe of accumulation all the way into Hendersonville. This would indicate that a rather strong Northwest Flow would have to setup to push that snowfall that far out of the high elevations.

Snow For NC/SC Border Counties?

We had talked a little bit about the possibility earlier.. and locations in Translyvania County will want to see an earlier phase with this system. That is something that some models showed late last week, but have since lost over the weekend. I am watching very closely the radar now since the event is so close, and will have a better idea tonight of what to expect along the NC/SC Border counties.

3”-6”+ Likely Above 3500’ Along NC/TN Border

As moisture moves in from the Southwest and then the Northwest, locations along the NC/TN border will once again be in a great location to receive accumulating snowfall. I am projecting 3”-6” for locations above 3500’ along the NC/TN border, and 1”-3” below 3500’.

Buncombe County Snowfall Possibilities

There is still a great bit of uncertainty as to how much snow will fall around Buncombe, but as much as 1”-3” will be possible in the Northern portion of the county in locations like Weaverville & Barnardsville. As you travel south, once again that snow line will taper. This is unless the models have missed a key detail and an earlier phase occurs, which is possible! If we have more Gulf interaction, more moisture would move in late tonight/early tomorrow morning… increasing the chance for snowfall. Once again, this is a very complicated forecast.

High Winds Likely Monday Night

As the Upper Level Low moves through, winds will really pick up around WNC. Gusts over 35mph will be likely around Asheville, and gusts over 50mph will be possible above 3500’. Below you can see the peak wind gusts as the most intense portion of the Upper Level Low is moving through.

Live Update Tonight 7pm

Join me live tonight at 7pm as I unveil the snowfall projection map and discuss the current model and radar trends with this current system!

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Hunter Ward

December 4, 2020

Two Chances For Snow Showers Around WNC Over The Next 5 Days On Tap

Hunter Ward

December 4, 2020

The active weather pattern will continue around WNC for the foreseeable future beginning today with rain and then Northwest flownsnowfall for some late tonight & into tomorrow. Locations above 3500’ have the chance to see a couple of snow showers, with even a dusting to 2” possible above 4500’. That is not really the storm I am focusing on though, but i’ll begin this article there. Models continue to suggest that as an Upper Level Low progresses over WNC tonight, that snow showers will be possible in similar areas that saw snow on Monday. So don’t be surprised if you live North of I-40 tomorrow morning and wake up to a dusting of snowfall. Check out the most recent Nam3km Precipitation Depiction below for tonight.

My attention has turned to a weak Gulf Low that will meander up the East Coast late Sunday and into Monday. Overrunning precipitation could collide with an Upper Level Low, and a zone of convergence will setup over WNC. Taking advantage of the cold air provided by the Upper Level Low, moisture could very well fall in the form of snowfall for most. This would even include valley locations down to around 1700’. There is still a lot of information to be proceed, but lets look over the details as I explain why I think snowfall will be possible.

Model Data

The most recent NAM model continues to show a similar overrunning precipitation event late Sunday and into Monday around WNC. Below you can see a simulation of the most recent model run, and where it depicts precipitation to occur. Snowfall totals will be tough to nail down until 12-24 hours out from this event, but I have also shown what the most recent NAM depicted regarding those numbers.

Model Comparison

So when forecasting event such as what will arrive late Sunday night, I dig very deep into the data. What I am finding is that most models have a very saturated column aloft over WNC late Sunday and into Monday, with near frozen temperatures in place. As a baroclinic zone develops between the Upper Level Low and the surface low, snowfall develops over WNC. This is considered overrunning precipitation. It is notoriously poorly modeled, and is typically where our surprise snowstorms come from. Lets take a look below at what the most recent GFS Model is depicting.

Now let’s compare that what what the 0z European model showed occurring. When evaluating these systems coming in, I like to favor the GFS in upslope events because it tends to do better with their progression. The Euro struggles to resolve the low end moisture returns and that causes its output to be minimal. What happens in actuality most of the time is that the Euro plays catchup to the GFS in these events. So below you see how the Euro has all the same players on the field, just doesn’t show that weak precipitation over WNC.

Conclusion

What this all boils down to is agreement. One thing that the models are in agreement of is interaction between the surface low and the Upper Level Low. That will correlate to moisture development over WNC. With a column very close to freezing, there is potential for a low end winter event early Monday morning and through the day on Monday. Depending on how heavy the precipitation is, will determine how much snow falls. I have seen these type of overrunning events bring 3”+ of snow to isolated valley locations. That doesn’t mean it will occur this time, but the potential is there. Check back with me soon as I continue to digest data to give you the most accurate forecast!

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Hunter Ward

November 30, 2020

Northwest Flow To Move Into WNC Later This Afternoon, Snowfall Totals Increased For Some

Hunter Ward

November 30, 2020

Rainfall from a strong frontal passage is now exiting the area and trailing will be Northwest Flow moisture. As temperatures plummet over the next 24 hours, the moisture stream will enhance and snow showers could break containment of the Apps and push into valleys below. The most recent short range models are even suggesting some slight accumulation around the Asheville area. Below you can see my most up to date snowfall map that Evan has put together for us.

Short Range Model Data

Below you can see the snowfall map that was just produced by the 6z run this morning of the NAM 3km. Notice how it has the stripe of snow even into Henderson County. That indicates to me that significant banding will be likely with the backside of this system. Also check out the depicted radar below for the next 60 hours.

NAM 3km Snowfall Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

3km NAM Radar Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Timing

Snowfall will begin the high elevations above 3500’ during the early afternoon hours and then as a stronger push from the Upper Level Low comes through, that snowfall level will drop to around 2000’. This should occur around 7-9 pm tonight. That is my best guess as to when the first chance to see snowfall around Asheville will be. Following this initial push, we will see several other burst of moisture.. but they many not have the strength of the initial push. Snow flurries will last around WNC through the early hours of Wednesday morning, and slick roads are very possible above 3000’. Below is what the short range HRRR models shows regarding accumulation by 8pm tonight. it will be interesting to see if this is correct.

HRRR Snowfall through 8pm Monday courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Chances Decreasing For Snowfall To End Week

The chance for another round of snowfall appears to be dying down as models lose the look that they showed late last week. We will have a strong Upper Level Low to contend with so the chance is not zero for snowfall, but it is dwindling. Below you can see the 10-day temperature spread from the Euro. Check back soon for more updates!

Euro 10-Day Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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