Hunter Ward

November 28, 2020

Northwest Flow Snowfall To Bring First Snowflakes Of Season To WNC

Hunter Ward

November 28, 2020

A strong low pressure will make its way up the spine of the Appalachians, bringing with it heavy rainfall for all of WNC Sunday night and into Monday. Following that, backside moisture will move in from the Great Lakes, and that will be strained out along the Appalachians Monday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. Below you can see my snowfall forecast and the great map made by Evan Fisher.

Short Range Models Still Needed

Snowfall totals will vary from model run to model run over the next 36 hours so some adjustment could need to be made to that map, but as of now I think we could see a T-1” of snowfall even around the Asheville area. The wildcard with this Northwest Flow is that it will be aided by a trailed Upper Level Low that will reinvigorate the trough with energy. As the low pressure to our north continue to strengthen and stall, snowfall will continue through the early hours of Wednesday morning around WNC. This will bring a solid 3”+ to ski areas in the Appalachians. Below you can see a depiction of the most recent GFS showing how the system moves through. Join Evan and I live tomorrow night at 7pm for short range data.

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Highest Elevations Could See 5”+ Of Snowfall

Some high mountains locations should really rake in the snowfall, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 6” total recorded somewhere in the highest of elevations around WNC. This flow will be aided by incredible fetches of moisture off of the Great Lakes, and some convection could even be possible as some models show when the Upper Level Low moves through Tuesday.

Rainfall Will Affect Monday Morning Commute

If you are traveling to work on Monday morning please use caution around WNC as the beginnings of the frontal passage bring heavy rainfall and around 1” of rain to most. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km totals of projected precipitation.

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Uncertainty Remains But Another Chance Of Snow Friday/Saturday Around WNC

I still have my eye on next weekend for another shot of snowfall at least for the high elevations above 3500’. Another Upper Level Low will move through WNC and it could have some interaction with a Gulf Low. How exactly this unfold remains to be seen, but I think that a low end snowfall event could still be possible for WNC. What does look certain is the cold that is coming. Temperatures on Tuesday will not push above the mid 30’s around WNC, and that could will be somewhat sustained. Below you can see the most recent European temp spread.

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Hunter Ward

November 26, 2020

Chances Increasing For 1-2 Punch Of Snow Around WNC Next Week

Hunter Ward

November 26, 2020

I have had my eye on the upcoming pattern change for several days now, and we are beginning to see a bit of clarity as to how exactly the pattern change will unfold. First, a low pressure will move through late Sunday and into Monday bringing with it heavy rainfall for the entire area. 1”-3” of rain is to be expected. Then things get very interesting as the Northern and Southern Jet Stream phase over the Mid Appalachians. A strong deformation feature will develop along the entire spine of the Apps as the low pressure continues to deepen. This strong low pressure will stall over the Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon, really throwing that upslope snow into the Mountains of WNC. Some high snowfall totals will be possible from this system through Wednesday morning in locations above 3500’. Right now a good guess for locations above 3500’ would be 3”-6” of snowfall. Snow showers and a dusting of snowfall will be possible for all Valley locations around WNC as snow levels plummet Tuesday. Then the models differ greatly as to how next Thursday will unfold. First let’s discuss the threat for Northwest flow snow Monday thru Wednesday.

Northwest Flow

WNC experiences Northwest flow snowfall when a low pressure enhances over the Great Lakes. The warm waters over the Great Lakes increase the updrafts associated with snow production over these areas, and that enhancement translate to more snowfall in the air. This translates as far South as WNC where those snow bands also benefit from upslope as they move up the Appalachian Mountains. Right along the border of NC/TN moisture is wrung out of the clouds, similar to how water leaves a towel when you twist it. Below you can see the most recent GFS model run that depicts this process occurring over WNC.

now you can compare what the GFS shows to how the European model depicts the system unfolding. Notice several similarities. This tells me that the models have a good idea on how this system is going to unfold. The Canadian model also shows this strengthening of a low over the Great Lakes and then snowfall moving into WNC. I haven’t shown the Canadian, but it is noteworthy to mention the similarities.

Snowfall Totals For Round 1

Below you can see the GFS depiction for snowfall totals through Wednesday AM. This would equate to several inches in the highest elevations, and then a dusting in isolated valley area around Asheville. This is a very plausible solution. There are still some wildcards though with this forecast, and the main takeaway from this article today should be that there is a chance for snow showers Monday night & Tuesday even around Asheville. Then chance #2 for snowfall around WNC comes Thursday..

GFS Snowfall Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Round Number 2

Several models have a second round of snowfall potential around WNC late next week. Yes this is very far out to talk about, but these 1-2 punch systems happen fairly regularly here around WNC, and I believe that this pattern will be conducive to take on a similar 1-2 punch form. While time is still very uncertain, it does appear that another piece of upper level energy is going to drop down early Thursday morning. The GFS and European models are very far apart regarding their solutions currently, but the GFS now shows heavy snowfall breaking out all across WNC Thursday. The Euro on the other hand has a rain/snow mix for lower elevations and all snow for the highest elevations. Below you can see depictions of what both models show unfolding late next week.

GFS:

This GFS solution drops several inches of snowfall on the far SW Counties of WNC while most locations above 2000’ see 1”-3”. This timeframe here is when I think the chance for snowfall will be possible all across WNC. How exactly the storm unfolds remains to be seen, but this type of pattern has yielded accumulating snowfall to valley locations in the past. Now compare that with what the European model shows.

Euro:

Conclusion

A high end Northwest Flow event with winds gusting over 40mph even in Valley locations around WNC is likely Monday through Wednesday. Rainfall totals from this front will be 1”-3” for most, then the backside will bring the chance for 3”-6”+ of snowfall above 3500’ on the NC/TN Border. Following this frontal passage, another piece of energy will run the trough and slam into WNC on Thursday. There is still great uncertainty as to how this energy will interact with a Gulf Low moving through. I will keep you updated, and look for a live update on Facebook soon!

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Hunter Ward

November 23, 2020

Winter Pattern Setting Up To Begin December Around WNC

Hunter Ward

November 23, 2020

A below normal cold spell appears to be setting up for the Southeast to begin December, and that will at least bring very cold temperatures and high winds. Some wintry weather could be the subject of conversation as well, but this is still the long range so many we focus on large temperature swings. I am focused currently on all global models showing some form of cut off or strong front making it way out of Canada, and bringing bitter cold to the area. How cold exactly remains to be seen, but all global models show an active stream moving in from the North. With high pressure building in the Four Corners Region, that will force the Southern Jet more on a Southern pattern. As that high beats moisture down, it could collide with one of these strong cold fronts that will be moving through. Below you can see what comes to fruition when those type of atmospheric conditions set up.

What The Models Show

Below you can see what the most recent models showed during the early December time frame. Yes this is still 7 days out, but that is not too early to discuss the impending cold that could be moving in.

GFS:

European:

Mild/Wet For Thanksgiving

Below you can see the temperature spread from the overnight European model. This really illustrates how mild it will be on Thanksgiving and as you can see there is a chance for rainfall early in the morning on Thursday.

The GFS is also showing this rainfall, so it would be wise to prepare for smoking that Turkey in the rain if you are starting it early . Looking below I have the most recent GFS in motion. There is still some uncertainty as to how much rainfall to expect, but most models do show at least a chance. I will monitor this close and share more information when necessary. Check back for another update soon on the upcoming cold front. I will update regularly as it approaches.

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Hunter Ward

November 15, 2020

Cold Front To Bring Upper 20's To WNC Early This Week, High Winds Persist

Hunter Ward

November 15, 2020

a cold front will begin to move through WNC later this afternoon, and that will provide cool temperatures through the majority of next week as high pressure sets in. A few showers cannot be ruled out for WNC late tonight and early tomorrow morning, but I am only expecting around a tenth of an inch of rain or so. Below you can see the most recent temperature spread from the European Ensemble.

Rainfall Possible Tonight?

A few showers could be possible later this evening as you can see on the most recent NAM 3km above, but I do not expect more than a tenth of an inch of precipitation. Winds are currently gusting from the south around WNC at 15-20 mph which is impressive ahead of a frontal passage. Winds will switch out of the NW later this evening as the cold front arrives. Below you can see the progression of the winds.

notice in the wind gust map above how we have a second resurgence of winds Monday and into Tuesday. Therefore, the winds appear to be here to stay with us for the next several days unfortunately. This will help to dry out many locations where water tables are very high.

Temperatures Will Dip Below Freezing Tuesday AM

It will feel nice to get in a hot tub Monday or Tuesday night around WNC! I am looking forward to getting into mine! As the temperatures plummet into the low 30’s or upper 20’s for most around WNC, a frost could be possible if winds die down enough. That still remains to be seen. Wind chill will be the main factor though on Monday night. Check out the most recent wind chill map from the Nam 3km below.

Wind Chill Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Wow! Notice that 17 degree reading in Boone. Monday night and Tuesday morning will feel very winter like around the mountains of WNC. Winds could gust over 40mph in many locations, and gusts above that will be likely when you go above 4500’ along the NC/TN border. It would be wise to take an opportunity today when the wind dies down to secure outdoor accessories. I will be doing that myself in a little while!

Beautiful Week On Tap As High Pressure Builds In

Watching the GFS in motion above, notice how after the frontal passage, high pressure moves in place over WNC. This will be a dominate force and will keep rainfall away for all of next week. It will be a great week to work outdoors! In fact, through next weekend the weather appears to be very favorable for clear skies around WNC. If you are looking for a good weekend to decorate for Christmas, next weekend might be it! You know me though, I have already began to decorate the AshevilleWX office! Have a great weekend and check back soon for more updates!

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Hunter Ward

October 31, 2020

Northwest Flow To Bring First Snowflakes Of Season To High Elevations In WNC Sunday Night

Hunter Ward

October 31, 2020

It’s that time of the year again, where cold fronts begin to move in from the northwest and excess moisture gets strained out along the Appalachian mountains on the backside. Northwest flow. These events are where higher elevation locations receive snowfall, but as downsloping occurs into the valley these flakes are limited. A strong front will push through WNC late Sunday night, bringing the chance for the first accumulating snowfall of the season above 4500’. Only a dusting to 2” will be possible for the highest of elevations, but nonetheless, flakes will be flying in the High Country. Check out the most recent NAM 3km Snowfall Map for Sunday night & Into Monday.

NAM 3km Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

High Winds Likely

Winds will pick up as the frontal passage occurs tomorrow evening, and will gust to 45mph around the Asheville area, and in locations above 3500’ winds could gust over 60mph. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km peak wind gusts for Monday Morning. Talk about a rough morning, Monday will be bitter cold around WNC! Bundle up if you have something outside planned.

WInd Gusts Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

The GFS model depicts the front moving through very nicely. Below you can see how the air moves in from the Northwest, just after a slight bit of precipitation over WNC moves out. I am expecting scattered showers tomorrow during the day before the frontal passage, then winds will switch and come out of the NW with authority. Several WNC Webcams should be showing snowfall late tomorrow, and a dusting will be possible on the Banner Elk, NC Camera!

Total Precipitation Expected Tomorrow

As this moisture starved front moves through, some southerly flow will bring in a few scattered showers as Sunday progresses. These showers will be light, but if outdoor activities are planned they could be hindered. Below you can see the total precipitation depiction for WNC. Locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment will see higher totals with this southerly flow, but most all locations will see less than a half inch of precipitation.

NAM 3km Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Winds Will Pick Up Around Noon Tomorrow

The map below shows you the progression of the winds over the next 60 hours. Today (Saturday), will be a very nice day around WNC, but around noon tomorrow we will begin to see higher gusts of wind invade the mountains of WNC. It would be wise this afternoon to secure any outdoor accessories that could blow away. Check back soon for another updated and make your weather reports to The AshevilleWX Weather Community on Facebook!

NAM 3km Winds Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Hunter Ward

October 29, 2020

AshevilleWX 2020-2021 Winter Weather Outlook

Hunter Ward

October 29, 2020

AshevilleWX 2020-2021 Winter Weather Outlook

Each year here at AshevilleWX we do our best to put out a reasonable forecast about what you can expect during winter, based off of several factors. Most of this forecast is rooted in historical data and conclusions are reached through data comparison. Once we denote similarities of how a particular year is setting up, we can compare this data to data from years past to create a Winter Weather Outlook. This is merely a long range forecast though, and there is great uncertainty as usually with exactly how winter will unfold here in the mountains of WNC. Below you can find my 2020-2021 Winter Weather Outlook.

Seasonal Snowfall 20’-21’ Projections

Boone: 28”-35”

Asheville: 6”-8”

Charlotte: 2”-3”

Greensboro: 4”-6”

Raleigh: 3”-5”

Wilmington: 1”-2”

Why Less Than Average Snowfall For WNC?

There are a couple of factors that have lead me to forecast less than average snowfall for WNC this year, but the main reason is due to a moderate to strong La Nina setting up. What is La Nina? This is when cooling happens in the Nino region of the Pacific Ocean. The Nino region is observed on a regular basis by multiple sensors that monitor water temperatures. This area is where weather is generated for portions of the United States. If this region is warmer than normal then El Nino is consider to be in place. If the region is cooler than normal then La Nina is considered to be occurring. Historically, we see wetter conditions during El Nino events here in WNC. This means that warmer than normal temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region equates to wetter winter conditions in the Mountains of WNC. On the other hand, a La Nina would mean that temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean are cooler compared to the average. Historically during La Nina years, less precipitation has moved through WNC during winter time frames. With less activity in the key region, storms and Gulf Lows will be limited around the South. Strong cold shots are also possible with La Nina season, but I am leaning more towards a mild winter compared to a bitter cold one. That still remains to be seen though.

Moderate To Strong La Nina Setting Up

We have a moderate to strong La Nina setting up in the key Nino region where observations are taken. That means that cold water is pooling up in this region, and sea surface temperatures are falling below average. Therefore, limited storm development is expected to occur along the Equator and that means less precipitation moving through the Southeast. This is strictly based off of historical data. Below you can see what a typical La Nina looks like when observing sea surface temperatures.

What To Expect Here In WNC?

Evan Fisher has produced a great graphic that details out the amount of snowfall we received here in WNC each Moderate or Strong La Nina year. As you can see below, there is great variation among average snowfall each year during moderate & Strong La Nina years.

Here is also a map that shows the combined average of snowfall each year during Moderate & Strong La Nina Winters. As you can see, we are working with limit data to compare with only 11 data points of comparison. Moderate to Strong La Ninas are somewhat rare, which is why there is great uncertainty with this forecast.

Forecast

I posted this map above, but it is worth revisiting. I believe that Northwest Flow Snowfall will dominate totals this year in the NC Mountains, with close to average yearly snowfall totals being possible. Throughout the years, Northwest Flow has been the most consistent with providing snow events to the border counties.. and during this La Nina event I believe that sweeping arctic fronts this winter will bring several chances for Northwest Flow. That is why I have place most elevations above 3500’ in WNC at 80%-100% of normal in my projection map. Moving into the valley areas of WNC where snowfall totals are typically achieved by strong Gulf Low pressures, I have placed 60%-80% of normal snowfall. With limited storms moving in from the Gulf region, I think chances will be limited for a large snowstorm across the Southeast. That of course does not mean that one is not possible, history just shows that WNC and NC in general receive less precipitation during La Nina years.

Moving on to the Piedmont area, I am projecting 60%-80% of average snowfall for the areas like Greensboro & Charlotte. Each year these locations tend to receive their yearly snowfall totals from Gulf Lows, and I am of the opinion that those will be limited this year. Things like backdoor frontal passages will be where snowfall is picked up in the Piedmont, but the chances for Gulf Lows appear to be less compared to El Nino years.

The Raleigh area will be an area of transition in my opinion. I believe that we will see a strong cold shot or two this year, and this will be where locations along the Coast of NC see their chance for snow. During La Nina seasons, suppression of storms can lead to strong cold meeting with a meandering low pressure along the coast. It is my opinion that we will see one of these type storms develop this winter, and locations along the coast will receive 100%-120% normal snowfall. The Raleigh area, being on the fringe of these events, as well benefiting from backdoor cold fronts and placing that location in my 80%-100% yearly snow average zone.

Model Data

I have sourced a couple of long range models as well to illustrate the outlook on snowfall for this winter. Snow lovers will not like these maps, but they are a good indicator and were somewhat accurate last year when I made my forecast for below normal snowfall for the Asheville area. These maps were all provided by https://www.bennollweather.com.

Model Super Blend

European Model Snowfall Forecast By Month

UKMET Snowfall Forecast By Month

Conclusion

This year across WNC, snowfall averages will vary greatly. Based off of a super blend of knowledge, I forecast that WNC will see slightly below normal snowfall, with near average temperatures throughout the season. Conditions could be fairly dry at times with limited forcing from the Pacific, but one Gulf Low that threads the needle will be all it takes to bust my forecast. Please take this forecast with a grain of salt, and know that these forecast are mainly for fun and enjoyment. Know the winter weather is extremely unpredictable, and each year a new precedence can be set. Use this article for fun, but don’t use it as spoken word because no winter forecast should be taken as certainty.

-Meteorologist Hunter Ward

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Hunter Ward

October 27, 2020

Wind Gusts Of 60mph+ Possible Thursday As Zeta Passes Over WNC

Hunter Ward

October 27, 2020

Models have been refining the track of now Hurricane Zeta, and it does appear imminent that the storm will track directly over WNC. This will bring excessive rainfall to all locations, and now I am becoming very concerned about the wind threat. Zeta is a fast moving storm, and it is going to slam right into the mountains of WNC from the South. This strong forward motion will increase the likelihood for high winds, and will also not allow the storm to weaken as most compared to a typical slow moving storm. Let’s talk about the possibility of high wind gusts.

Zeta Projected Max Wind Gusts Per Euro Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Gusts of 60mph+ Possible

We typically don’t see winds this strong in the mountains of WNC, but it isn’t everyday that we have a strong post tropical storm overhead. Coming from the south, these wind will be unique because the highest gust will be found along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. It will be a nasty couple of days up on The Blue Ridge Parkway as well, so please be mindful. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km and how it shows the storms progression.

Highest Area Of Threat

The area that could experience the highest wind gust in my opinion will be along The Blue Ridge Escarpment. This will be the high elevation locations that experience those south winds first, and they will sort of undercut them. So, those areas take the brunt of the winds, which could gust as high as 90 mph in the highest elevations. Then, the winds will move down into the valleys below. Gusts over 60mph could be felt around the Brevard & Hendersonville areas. I would expect gusts to 50mph everywhere else. Below you can the max wind gusts late Thursday morning around WNC.

NAM 3km High Wind Gusts Thursday Morning

Timing

Rainfall will move in from Zeta late in the day on Wednesday, and will persist through the day on Thursday. Several models indicate that a widespread 2”-3” of rainfall will be possible from Zeta all across WNC. Winds will pick up early in the morning on Thursday, and by noon things will be quite gusty around the area. It would be wise today to secure any outdoor accessories. Zeta is a quick moving storm, and will likely be out of the area by late Thursday or very early Friday morning. Below you can see the projected rainfall totals from the latest GFS model run.

GFS Precipitation Total Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Cold Coming This Weekend

All models indicate that a strong cold front will follow the exit of Zeta. Temperatures will drop into the low 30’s Saturday morning, and will only push into the upper 50’s on Saturday afternoon. It is going to be a chilly Halloween so bundle up!! Below you can see the 10 day temperature spread from the European model. Enjoy!

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Hunter Ward

October 26, 2020

Flooding Rainfall Possible Later This Week Around WNC As Zeta Moves Through

Hunter Ward

October 26, 2020

Several models are beginning to show excessive rainfall around WNC as the remnants of soon to be Hurricane Zeta move through. There is somewhat of a large spread currently on just how much rain will fall across WNC, but as of now it looks like most areas will see around 2” of precipitation. Below Ill give you my thoughts on where Zeta will track, and show you various model solutions that are currently being displayed.

Zeta’s Track

Provided by The National Hurricane Center

After exiting the Yucatan, Zeta will quickly move through the Gulf of Mexico and head towards the Gulf States. It does appear that we will have yet another landfalling Hurricane in the Gulf region Wednesday. How strong this storm gets still remains to be seen, but it will be transitioning quickly to a Mid Latitude Cyclone as it collides with a front that stalls across the Plains. As these two merge, they will move towards WNC late Wednesday or early Thursday morning.

How Will Zeta Affect WNC?

Heavy rainfall will move in from the Southwest beginning late in the day on Wednesday, and this will persist through the majority of the day on Thursday. It does appear that this will be a washout for most, so please make preparations for excessive amounts of rainfall, especially on Thursday! Below you can see the most recent GFS track with Zeta. Notice how it moves directly across WNC as it stalls somewhat. This could be problematic for those Blue Ridge Escarpment areas.

As you can see, Zeta is forecasted to become at least at Category 1 Hurricane. As it merges with the Arctic Front that is currently bringing a winter storm to many Plain states.. it will move towards WNC. This storm will not give WNC any type of winter weather though as we will be in the warm sector this time. The heavy rainfall will be the main story from this system, but some high wind gusts could be possible as well. Below you can see the most recent GFS precipitation totals through Friday of this week. Over 2” of rainfall is expected for most!

Now let’s contrast the GFS with the most recent European model. As you can see, the European model shows almost an inch less rainfall across the entire area. This is due to the Euro taking a more Tennessee Valley track with the low pressure instead of transferring it to the Atlantic like the GFS shows.

Cool Air To Follow Front

Thats right, a cold front will eventually move through WNC this weekend after the rain from Zeta. Temperatures Saturday morning are expected to be in the low 30’s around the majority of WNC with another frost possible on Sunday morning. So a very mild weekend on tap for WNC, one in which you will need a coat.

Trick-or-Treat Forecast

Skies will clear on Friday and a nice Saturday appear to be in store! A slight chance for showers will be possible late Saturday or early Sunday, but I don’t see these as being too problematic. Little ones will need to bundle up though with temperatures expect to only top out in the mid to upper 50’s on Saturday. As the sunsets, WNC will quickly drop into the 40’s and upper 30’s! Below you can see the most recent Euro forecast for long range temps this weekend! Enjoy!

Euro 10 Day Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Hunter Ward

October 1, 2020

First Fall Frost Possible For Many Around WNC Saturday Morning

Hunter Ward

October 1, 2020

It’s that time of the year again when those cold fronts begin to sweep in from the North, and temperatures start to fall close to freezing. With that comes the threat of frost. This time we are talking about frost a couple of weeks early in the mountains of WNC, but a frost does appear likely on Saturday morning for many. Below you can see the long range European model, and what it shows for the next 10 days. In fact, there are a couple of chances for frost as we progress through next week.

10 Day European Model Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Model Spread

So as you can see above the European model indicates a below normal pattern that will persist through at least next week. That is perfect for cool weather, and fall color fans alike! Let’s take a look at the GFS below now and you can see it has a much more defiant warm up next week compared to the Euro.

Long Range GFS Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

How Will This Affect Fall Color

Dry and cool periods are known for enhancing fall color, and with most models showing very limited precipitation over the next week, I expect fall color to really increase in the higher elevations. Locations like Craggy Gardens will peak this weekend or early next week, as will locations like the Black Balsam & Graveyard Fields Area. Check out our interactive map below to see where your location will peak!

(Spread Fingers To Enact Zoom Feature)

Screen Shot 2020-09-28 at 7.10.02 AM.png

Frost Could Be Isolated

Locations around bodies of water will be where frost is most likely to form, but even many valley locations could get in on the frost if the wind dies down enough. With winds projected to be 3mph or so at the Asheville airport, frost will have no problem forming where the temperature gets cold enough. It would be wise to bring in sensitive plants to ensure their survival for another several days. It does appear to be a wonderful week though, so get out and enjoy the beautiful scenery!

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Hunter Ward

September 18, 2020

Cold Front This Weekend To Set Off Leaf Season Around WNC, Beautiful Fall On Tap

Hunter Ward

September 18, 2020

An unusually strong cold front will move through the area late this weekend, and will persist over WNC through mid next week. Some models even drop Asheville to 38 degrees early Tuesday morning. There will even be a chance for frost to occur in some locations, especially above 3500’. Below you can see the most recent European model projection for Asheville over the next 10 days. Notice how temperatures will only top out in the upper 60’s both Saturday and Sunday afternoons, it is going to be nice!

The coldest September air mass since 2015 will filter into the Carolinas this weekend, bringing fall-like weather and blue skies. We will likely see the first freeze of the season above 6000', but don't even think about the s-word. It's not time yet #WNCwx pic.twitter.com/Mpwjhe5TSA
— Evan Fisher (@EFisher828) September 18, 2020

Cool & Dry The Theme Over Next 7 Days

What a wonderful week in store for Fall temperature lovers. The next 7 days should be dry, and with cooler temperatures this will really aid the leaf transition, especially in the highest elevations. AshevilleWX Team Member Evan Fisher produced the incredible 3D leaf map below to help you plan your fall color trips! Though we won’t see any color change this weekend, I bet the highest elevations begin to change by the end of next weekend!

Where To See Fall Color First?

Evan has also produced several maps of isolated locations and I will begin to release them over the next several days. To begin though I will share his image of the Clingmans Dome area. This also included fall color for the Gatlinburg area as well. You can use this as a rough guide of when to visit which elevations. Clingmans Dome peak reaches over 6000’ and will be one of the first areas to see fall color, but with mainly pine trees at that elevation, fall color could be sparse. Check back over the course of the next two weeks as we release more maps and tell you the best spots to visit to see fall color around WNC!