Long Range Models Show Pattern Change, Arctic Air For Southeast Late Next Weekend

Some rain/snow showers are possible around WNC this evening and into tomorrow, with higher elevation locations(above 3500’) seeing some form of accumulation. I don’t expect to see totals much over 3” though even in the highest elevations. I have moved my focus towards the pattern change that will occur late next weekend. Long range models are hinting at a Polar Vortex displacement, and that would allow extremely cold air to move into the Southeast beginning next Sunday.

How Cold Are We Talking?

Some models have indicated that low temperatures could push into the negatives digits around WNC, but we are still 8-10 days away from that cold..so a great deal can change. Below you can see the most recent GFS FV3 temperature depiction for Sunday morning. It drops temps into the low teens, with Northwest Flow moisture streaming in off the Great Lakes.

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Fv3 GFS Temperature Depiction Next Sunday AM Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com

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Northwest Flow Moisture Streaming In All The Way From Great Lakes Sunday AM. Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com

The storm depicted is interesting because its a strong arctic front that pushes through the area. Some models have indicated that it could move farther south, and that leaves the door open to a more wintery solution in WNC. So what you need to know is that I have my eye on next weekend and a strong(more winter like) pattern change that looks to occur. I will be doing a live in-app update at 5:30pm today so be sure to download the app and tune in. I will also be discussing a shortwave front that will move through WNC Thursday into Friday. This front could bring some snow showers to higher elevations locations, so be sure to join me as I cover the possibilities!

Freezing Rain, Sleet, and Snow All Possible Around WNC This Weekend

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A mixed bag of precipitation is likely over the weekend around WNC, and portions of the Piedmont. Cold air will be funneled in ahead of the front, allowing surface temps to dip below freezing as precipitation moves in. It is still uncertain exactly how this system will unfold, but here are my latest thoughts on how the event will unfold! This will be an extend event, and backside snow showers could linger through Monday evening. As heavier precipitation moves into WNC Saturday night, roadways could become slick as snow/sleet/freezing rain falls. Some models show surface temps in the upper 20’s when this heavy precipitation moves in, and that will likely cause travel problems for many. This cold wedge will struggle to reach west of Asheville, and a warm nose could keep those areas less icy. Some models though show the cold wedge all the way into NGA, so uncertainty is the key here. Prepare for an ice storm, and hope it doesn’t come to fruition… I will be live tonight on the AshevilleWX App at 7pm so join me there as I detail out the timing of precipitation, and what p-types are most likely to fall in which areas!

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Ice Threat On The Increase As Weekend Storm Approaches WNC

A warm nose of air will come into play late Saturday and into Sunday as the front moves into to WNC. Depending on how warm this nose is will determine how long WNC sees frozen precipitation. Earlier on in the week models keyed in on the front tongue of precipitation bringing snowfall, but that threat seems have subsided somewhat. There is also a backside component with this storm that could bring snow showers even into Tuesday morning. This will be problematic for higher elevation locations, and we very well could see accumulating snowfall sometime Monday from the backside even around Asheville. So, this morning I preach uncertainty. Prepare for an ice storm around WNC, because freezing rain does look possible. Below is the most recent GFS model run depiction of how much freezing rain could fall. Join me live tonight on the AshevilleWX App at 7pm or on Facebook which will follow shortly!

GFS Freezing Rain Totals Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com

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Wind Gust Could Top 50mph Tonight Around Asheville

Winds have already picked up around WNC today, and that looks to continue through the evening and early hours of tomorrow morning as a strong low pressure exits the US. Short range models indicate that gusts above 50mph are likely at the Asheville Airport, and even higher wind gusts are expected above 3500’. It would be wise to secure outdoor accessories this afternoon in order to keep them from blowing away! After this front passes, temperatures will plummet, and highs over the next few days will struggle to push out of the 30’s. Some higher elevation locations above 4000’ will experience snow showers late tomorrow night and into Thursday morning. A stray flurry cannot be ruled out in the Asheville area. This all sets the stage for the weekend winter storm. Join me live tonight at 7pm as I go into more detail regarding how this weekends event will unfold.

High Res NAM Wind Gusts Tonight

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Winter Weather Appears Likely This Weekend For WNC

All major global models indicate that some form of winter weather will be possible around WNC this weekend, and into Monday of next week. There is agreement that a shortwave will move out of the Rockies, and make its way into a broader trough aloft Thursday across the center of the country. As this shortwave interacts with the Southern Jet, overrunning precipitation will fill in ahead of the front along the zone of truncation. Where this zone sets up, and how much moisture is available still remain to be seen. Right now the GFS shows the most precipitation associated with the system. The European models is much drier, and really struggles to advance an meaningful precipitation towards WNC until early Sunday. So, again I preach uncertainty. What we know is that the Northern & Southern Jet stream will likely come together, and this storm could be larger than what models currently show. Tonight I will be doing a Live in-app video around 7pm, and then a Live Facebook video will follow. To tune in on the app just download here! Below is the most recent precipitation depiction from the GFS showing Saturday morning. That initial tongue of precipitation moves in early Saturday morning, and precipitation (per this model) continues through Sunday afternoon. Other models take the low pressure up the spine of the Apps, and that would mean ice for many in WNC. So the main takeaway from this article is that wintry weather is possible around WNC this weekend, and you should pay close attention to the weather over the next few days as we get a better of how the situation will unfold!

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6z GFS Precipitation Depiction For Saturday Afternoon Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Models Hinting At The Possibility For Snow This Weekend Around WNC

Long range models continue to resolve a possible winter storm that looks to move through WNC next weekend, and that could cause problems for some. There are a multitude of possibilities still on the table regarding how this system will unfold.. but adequate cold air does appear to be embedded before the storm arrives, and could stay entrenched throughout the duration of the event. What that means is that there is a likelihood that this precipitation could fall as snow or ice.

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Will It Be Snow, Ice, Or Just Rain?

As I previously stated, and as with most southeast winter storms, a great deal of uncertainty lies ahead as we approach this weekend. The GFS models shows a long duration multiple wave event, whereas the Euro shows minimal precipitation, but somewhat cooler temps. Models will get a better idea as week move through Tuesday and Wednesday, so be sure to download the AshevilleWX App where I will be doing live video updates all week! Below is the snowfall map from the most recent run from the GFS run. This is only one model depiction, and should only be taken with a grain of salt.. but models are hinting at the possibility. Join me tonight at 7:30pm on the AshevilleWX App where I will detail out the most recent model runs!

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GFS Snowfall Totals Thru Sunday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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2”+ Of Rainfall Possible Before End Of Week Around WNC, Flash Flooding Likely Again

Weather models continue to suggest that heavy rain will move into the area late tonight and into tomorrow. With multiple rounds of rainfall possible, upwards of 2” or more could fall on many locations around WNC through Friday night. This will be problematic for streams and rivers that are still draining from the heavy rain we received last week. Similar flooding appears to be possible, though I don’t think the rain will fall as heavy as what occurred last Thursday into Friday. Still though, the French Broad River remains high, and it will not take high rainfall totals to push it out of its banks again.

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3km NAM Total Precipitation Through Friday Night Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Timing

Rainfall has already moved in in many locations as a baroclinic leaf protrudes ahead of the main front. This moisture will stream in throughout the morning tomorrow before some clearing occurs Thursday afternoon. The upper level low will begin to progress towards WNC Thursday night, and some isolated storms could be possible Friday morning. Most models (like above) show around 2” of rain falling over the next 60 hours, so please be prepared to move to higher ground if necessary.

Backside Snow?

Some locations could briefly switch to snow as the Upper Level Low exits, but the chances for snow with this system really anywhere is dwindling. With a quick exit out to sea, limited backside moisture will be available for higher elevation northwest flow. Some locations could see snow showers Friday night into Saturday, but accumulation will be very limited. The main story with this system will again be the rainfall.. Join me live at 8pm as I discuss what the radar shows, and what to expect as we move forward.

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Scattered Showers Through Early Week Likely Around WNC, Then Heavier Rainfall Move In Again Wed Afternoon

A dreary Sunday, and beginning to the week awaits you around WNC, as mild temperatures and scattered showers move through the area. Temperatures will push into the upper 50’s-low 60’s each afternoon, and rainfall amount shouldn’t amount to more then .25” each day. This will all change though when a strong upper level low pressure system attempts to move through the area Wednesday-Friday. Some uncertainty still exists with this system and exactly what it will bring to WNC, but I will do my best to detail out the potential scenarios below.

Heavy Rainfall, Flash Flooding Possible Wednesday Into Thursday

The European model has been adamant about a strong upper level low stacking with a surface low later this week as ample moisture flows in from the gulf. This will create an interesting situation for many across TX & AR, but it is still not even certain if this storm forms. The Euro shows a dangerous winter storm on the backside, whereas the GFS has only shows some overrunning precipitation(until the most recent run), that never gets wound up enough to produce any significant precipitation. So what does this mean for WNC? Well the European model has shown a much stronger system which brings twice as much rainfall Wednesday into Thursday compared to the GFS. Given how saturated the ground is, and how high streams/rivers are already flowing.. 2 more inches of rainfall will cause problems. So, we are currently watching to see if the GFS begins to move toward the European models.. and there are many signs that it is. Over the past several runs, the GFS increased precipitation totals for the event from around .5” to over 2”. The Euro model has shown a 2”+ event for the past several runs, so it appears that the GFS is moving towards a more amplified solution..similar to the European. Below you can see the variation in total precipitation between the two models. On this past run, the GFS actually showed more precipitation compared to the Euro, but the European has been more consistent.

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0z European Accumulated Precipitation Through Thursday Courtesy of Weather.us

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GFS Total Precipitation Thru Thursday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Flash Flood Concerns Return

With already saturated soil, and creeks/rivers running high.. another 2”-3” of rainfall will again cause problems. It is still not certain yet as to how much precipitation will fall, but the picture is becoming more and more clear as we progress towards Wednesday. Most models indicate that 2”+ of rainfall will be possible as an upper level low moves through WNC. Areas that experience flooding on Friday will likely experience flooding again on Thursday morning. Therefore, you should prepare for water to rise.

Will There Be Winter Weather On The Backside?

Models indicate that temperatures will plummet late Thursday as the upper level low moves overhead and the surface low exits. Some higher elevation locations could switchover to snow before the precipitation is gone. Then, northwest flow moisture will move through the area. Winds will gust early Friday morning above 30 mph, and that has the potential to push snowflakes out of the higher elevations and into the valleys below. We are still not exactly sure how the front end of this storm will unfold, so naturally there is great uncertainty as to what the backside will hold. Check back soon for another update, and have a great Sunday!

Rainfall Set To Move Into WNC Tomorrow, Will Likely Make 2018 Wettest Year On Record

Weather models continue to indicate that another frontal passage will occur Thursday and into Friday, bringing with it heavy rain, and some flash flooding. The Asheville Airport currently sits at 73.98” of rainfall for the year. In 2013 The Asheville Airport received 75.22” of rainfall, which currently holds the position of wettest year on record. If Asheville receives 1.24” of rain or more from this system, we will break an all-time yearly rainfall record. Most models show 1.75” of rain or more falling between now and Saturday, so it seems likely that we will break the record. Below are a few model depictions of how much precipitation will fall.

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GFS Precipitation Depiction Thru Saturday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Euro Precipitation Totals Thru Saturday Courtesy of Weather.us

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12km Nam Precipitation Totals Curtesy of Pivotalweather.com

Breaking The Record

Even if 1.24” or more is not recording at the Asheville Airport from this event, another front will move in on Sunday and into Monday that will likely push us over the top. So right now I am predicting that 2018 will go down as the wettest year on record for WNC. We have been talking about this record here at AshevilleWX since we broke the all-time monthly rainfall record back in May. So now two major rainfall records will fall in 2018! This is astonishing. I won’t delve into the climate aspect of this, but it is monumental that we are breaking this record again… and should be noteworthy to all. Check back soon for another update as this event approaches, and we track the rainfall as it falls.

Snow Showers Possible This Evening For Many Around WNC, Accumulation Cannot Be Ruled Out

Rain will continue to fall around WNC as the upper level low strengthens and exits. On the backside, upper level temperatures will begin to crash, and locations above 5000’ on the NC/TN Border are already switching over to snow. As the afternoon progresses, many locations around WNC will switch over to snow. This include valley locations. Below you can see my projected snowfall map for this event. As winds pick up this afternoon and gust over 40mph, snow showers will break containment along the NC/TN border, and push into the valleys below. I believe that Asheville will see snow showers around rush hour this afternoon, so please use caution.

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Will Snow Stick?

It’s hard to say exactly because the ground is so wet. Winds will effectively dry the ground some as snow falls, but its hard to determine how much drying will occur. I believe a dusting will be possible around Asheville, but the farther south you move, chances decrease. Check back with me this afternoon for a live update as the event unfolds!

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