A dreary Sunday, and beginning to the week awaits you around WNC, as mild temperatures and scattered showers move through the area. Temperatures will push into the upper 50’s-low 60’s each afternoon, and rainfall amount shouldn’t amount to more then .25” each day. This will all change though when a strong upper level low pressure system attempts to move through the area Wednesday-Friday. Some uncertainty still exists with this system and exactly what it will bring to WNC, but I will do my best to detail out the potential scenarios below.
Heavy Rainfall, Flash Flooding Possible Wednesday Into Thursday
The European model has been adamant about a strong upper level low stacking with a surface low later this week as ample moisture flows in from the gulf. This will create an interesting situation for many across TX & AR, but it is still not even certain if this storm forms. The Euro shows a dangerous winter storm on the backside, whereas the GFS has only shows some overrunning precipitation(until the most recent run), that never gets wound up enough to produce any significant precipitation. So what does this mean for WNC? Well the European model has shown a much stronger system which brings twice as much rainfall Wednesday into Thursday compared to the GFS. Given how saturated the ground is, and how high streams/rivers are already flowing.. 2 more inches of rainfall will cause problems. So, we are currently watching to see if the GFS begins to move toward the European models.. and there are many signs that it is. Over the past several runs, the GFS increased precipitation totals for the event from around .5” to over 2”. The Euro model has shown a 2”+ event for the past several runs, so it appears that the GFS is moving towards a more amplified solution..similar to the European. Below you can see the variation in total precipitation between the two models. On this past run, the GFS actually showed more precipitation compared to the Euro, but the European has been more consistent.
0z European Accumulated Precipitation Through Thursday Courtesy of Weather.us
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GFS Total Precipitation Thru Thursday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Flash Flood Concerns Return
With already saturated soil, and creeks/rivers running high.. another 2”-3” of rainfall will again cause problems. It is still not certain yet as to how much precipitation will fall, but the picture is becoming more and more clear as we progress towards Wednesday. Most models indicate that 2”+ of rainfall will be possible as an upper level low moves through WNC. Areas that experience flooding on Friday will likely experience flooding again on Thursday morning. Therefore, you should prepare for water to rise.
Will There Be Winter Weather On The Backside?
Models indicate that temperatures will plummet late Thursday as the upper level low moves overhead and the surface low exits. Some higher elevation locations could switchover to snow before the precipitation is gone. Then, northwest flow moisture will move through the area. Winds will gust early Friday morning above 30 mph, and that has the potential to push snowflakes out of the higher elevations and into the valleys below. We are still not exactly sure how the front end of this storm will unfold, so naturally there is great uncertainty as to what the backside will hold. Check back soon for another update, and have a great Sunday!
