Hunter Ward

December 20, 2018

Heavy Rain Today, Then Snow Showers Possible Tomorrow Night For WNC.. Highest Elevations Could See 8"+

Hunter Ward

December 20, 2018

Rainfall is currently beginning to move into Western North Carolina, and that will persist throughout the day today.. and into tomorrow afternoon. You can track this precipitation with the live interactive radar. Upper level temperatures will begin to crash Friday morning, and as precipitation exits, higher elevation locations will begin to switch to snow. Below you can see the Nam 3km precipitation depiction late Friday night.

3km Nam Radar Depiction 11pm Friday Night… Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Will Northwest Flow Snow Make It To Asheville?

It is very possible that we see snow showers push into the French Broad River Valley, and even into Downtown Asheville late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Upper level winds will be very gusty as the surface low strengthens and pressure gradient force kicks in. That will propel some of those snowflakes that are falling on the NC/TN border, into the valleys below. Its hard to say exactly when the snow will push into Asheville, but with models showing winds gusting to 40mph at the Asheville Airport (see below), it will be hard for snow showers to stay contained at the border.

Winds Could Cause Damage Friday Night

As the low pressure exits the area, it rapidly strengthens, and the atmosphere must compensate for that. Therefore, winds will rush towards the deepening low pressure in an attempt to balance. These winds will howl through the mountains of Western North Carolina Friday and into Saturday, and could cause some damage.. especially in the higher elevations. It would be wise to secure outdoor Christmas decorations later today if possible, and also bring in any other outdoor accessories you may have on your porch that could blow away.

How Much Snow Is Expected?

I am only expected a dusting or so around Asheville proper.. but within 15 miles of the NC/TN border I believe 1”-3” of snow will be possible below 3500’, and 3”-6”+ will be possible above 3500’. Below you can see the snowfall map that the most recent Nam 3km produced. As you can see some locations like Clingman’s Dome & Roan Mountain really rake in the precipitation. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of these locations record over 1’ of snow following this northwest flow event.

3km Nam Total Snowfall Depiction.. Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Travel Friday Night-Saturday Morning

Please use caution if you are heading towards the NC/TN border on Friday or Saturday morning. It is uncertain as to exactly when snow will begin to fall on I-40(Through Gorge) & I-26 (Newfound Gap), but at some point in time on Friday it will happen. DOT crews will do their best to keep roadways clear, but please use caution, and be patient as you move through the area. By Saturday afternoon, things should be settling down, and snowfall should be tapering off. Around Asheville, I expect less travel problems.. but they cannot be ruled out. Even a dusting of snow can make roadways slick around town.. so please be mindful if you are out late Friday night. Check back soon for another update as short range models continue to refine data, and provide a clearer picture as to how this backside moisture will unfold.

Grimes Teich Anderson LLP Live Downtown Asheville Camera

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Hunter Ward

December 17, 2018

Mild Week In Store For WNC, Rain Moves In Thursday With Rain/Snow Mix Possible Late Friday

Hunter Ward

December 17, 2018

A relatively mild week looks to be on tap for Western North Carolina as many scurry around to finish up final bits of holiday shopping, and teachers pull their hair out before Christmas Break. Through Wednesday we appear to remain dry with partly cloudy skies overhead. Temperatures will push into the 50’s each afternoon, and the cold that nips in the morning will subside. More rain is on the way though.

Rainfall Moves In Thursday

A strong upper level low pressure system will make its way through the Southeast on Thursday, bringing with it the chance for more rain, and even some isolated flash flooding. Snowfall on this front end does not appear to be likely since temperatures will be in the 40’s when precipitation moves in. However on the backside, some snow showers appear to be possible. Another inch of rainfall looks to be likely through Friday around WNC, and that will push us even closer to breaking that all time record. It is going to be very close, but I am not sure that we break the record.

Snow Showers Possible Friday Into Saturday

6z GFS Precipitation Depiction Late Friday Night Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

As this strong system exits to the northeast, a deformation feature will develop on the backside, and that has the potential to move through WNC. These features are always extremely difficult to model, and WNC typically doesn’t receive anything significant from a storm exiting in this manor, but it bears watching due to the volatility of the pattern. I certainly expect favored Northwest flow areas above 3000’ to receive accumulation, but below that it is hard to tell without short range model data. So the main takeaway is to note that I have my eye on Friday & Saturday for a minor winter event. I am not expecting significant snow accumulation, but some accumulation cannot be ruled out, especially within 15 miles of the NC/TN border. Check back soon for another update and have a great day!

Hunter Ward

December 13, 2018

1"+ Rainfall On Top Of Snowpack Could Cause Flash Flooding Around WNC This Weekend

Hunter Ward

December 13, 2018

Rainfall is expected to move in early tomorrow morning, and will persist through the day and into Saturday. Many locations will see over an inch of rainfall from this system, with some locations even seeing 3+ inches. This will be problematic due to the amount of snow that has yet to melt in many areas. This past snow was extremely heavy/wet, and temperatures have yet to rise high enough to produce a big melt in locations that got over a foot of snow. So as the rain falls, it will melt existing snow.. creating extreme runoff. This will fill streams and rivers quickly and could cause flash flooding in select locations. Ponding on roadways will also be troublesome because some roadways still have snow on them. The water will have limited areas to run off to, and therefore it will run down the roadways.

Be Cautious Traveling

Backroads that still have heavy snow packs accumulated on the sides could cause cars to hydroplane as snow melts and rain falls. Below you can see the most recent 3km Nam run, and it shows a widespread inch of rainfall falling for most locations. Many areas along the Blue Ridge Escarpment though receive must more precipitation. These same areas also had some of the highest snowfall totals. If locations like Lake Toxaway receive 3”-4” of rain on top of 12”+ of snow that still on the ground.. that is going to cause big problems. So I have my eye on this rainfall, and believe that those of you and the area who live near streams should be ready to move to higher ground if necessary.

Hunter Ward

December 10, 2018

Black Ice Possible Tonight Around WNC, Rain Moves In By End Of Week

Hunter Ward

December 10, 2018

Temperatures will drop into the 20’s overnight, and wet roadways will refreeze in many places. Watch for slick spots tomorrow morning, and please be careful as you make your way around. Black ice will also be possible Wednesday morning as we dip back into the 20’s and teens in some places Tuesday night.

Rain Moves In Friday

Another system will move through WNC on Friday and into Saturday, bringing with it the chance for over an inch of rainfall for many areas. This, combined with snow melt could create some excessive flash flooding as rain falls. Below you can see the most recent run of the GFS, and it shows 1.3” of rainfall at the Asheville Airport. Currently The Asheville Airport sits at 70.94” of rainfall for the year. Our record rainfall for any year recorded is 75.22” in 2013. We are just over 4” away from breaking that record, and this system will place us even closer..

GFS Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Countdown To History

With only 4.28” of rainfall between our currently yearly total and the record set back in 2013.. it is entirely feasible for us to break this record. I will make sure and keep you updated on the record as the year closes, and ensure that you know when the record is broken!

Hunter Ward

December 8, 2018

Updated Snowfall Projection Map, Heavy Snow Set To Move Into WNC

Hunter Ward

December 8, 2018

As models continue to resolve how this situation will unfold, I have refined my snowfall totals to give you a more in-depth look as we go forward. A range of 12”-24” is very wide so I wanted to narrow that down a bit to help eliminate any confusion. A warm nose aloft could limit these totals, but if all precipitation falls as snow, some of these totals could be on the low end. Counties like Jackson & Clay will be farther away from the cold air source and closer to the warm nose, therefore mixing is expected. That will cut down on totals significantly, but I still believe 6”+ is possible in Jackson (especially in the Balsams), and 3-6” will be possible as you get closer to Andrews. Towards Boone, the column of air looks to be more suitable for snowfall throughout the event, and higher snowfall rates will be possible because surface temps will be in the 20’s. Therefore over 2 feet of snow will be possible in some locations N of Asheville between Mt. Mitchell & Boone, NC. Locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment including Henderson, Polk, & Transylvania counties will all have the chance to see enhanced snowfall totals as well. I believe a strip of 18”-24” of snow will be possible across those 3 counties.

Moisture Moving In

Current radar shows moisture already moving into the area, and there have been reports of snow/sleet falling already in some locations. Some mixing will be possible during the daylight hours, but as the sun sets and heavier precipitation moves in.. I believe we will switch to all snow around Asheville. The heaviest precipitation appears to move in late this evening and into tomorrow morning. Some models suggest that the warm nose aloft around Asheville will melt precipitation and produce sleet, but the margin or error here is razor thin.. so it must be monitored.

WNC Webcams To Watch

I have two live cameras up for you to enjoy this event!

Downtown Asheville Live Camera: Here

Candler/Mt. Pisgah Live Camera: Here

Radar: here

Hunter Ward

December 7, 2018

Historic Snowstorm Set To Move Into WNC Tomorrow Afternoon, Here Is My Most Recent Updated Expected Accumulation Map

Hunter Ward

December 7, 2018

AshevilleWXProjectedSnowfallTotalsForDec8th-11thh2018CallMap.png

Models wavered some yesterday as to how much precipitation will actually be available, but it appears this morning that those hinderances have been addressed and the high totals are still very possible. In fact 2’+ will be possible in many locations around WNC. Totals may need to be adjusted just a hair for locations like Cashiers, NC & Highlands, NC.. but as you move SW from Asheville, mixing concerns are still present.

High Resolution NAM

Below you can see the snowfall map and a radar depiction of when the storm will likely begin. The high res nam is bringing snow showers in by early afternoon tomorrow, and by sunset has already accumulated a couple of inches. Soil temps are going to be supportive of accumulation quickly, and most everything that falls frozen will accumulate. Wind gusts will push over 30mph in many locations Sunday morning, and falling tree limbs will likely cause widespread power outages. Models do not suggest winds high enough for Blizzard conditions in the valleys, but white outs still cannot be ruled out. Above 3500’ some gust could reach 50-60mph.

3km Nam Radar Depiction for Early Saturday Afternoon Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

3km NAM Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

How To Prepare

Have your family prepared to hang out around the house from Saturday Evening thru at least Monday. That means supplies to stay warm in case the power goes out (alternative heat source), extra food, and entertainment! You can also fill your bathtub full of water, in case water services are limited. Please use alternative heating sources safely, with proper ventilation. Give crews time to get the roadways cleared… If you need to see road conditions you can check them downtown on our Grimes Teich Anderson LLP Live Camera. Check back here on Ashevillewx as well, I will be doing regular updates and facebook live videos as we continue to approach the storm.

Hunter Ward

December 6, 2018

12"-24" Of Snow Will be Possible For Some Locations In WNC This Weekend, Heres My First Call Map

Hunter Ward

December 6, 2018

AshevilleWXProjectedSnowfallTotalsForDec8th-11thh2018.png

There does appear to be some variability among short range models and long range models regarding temperatures, but what does seem certain, is that a large winter storm is on the way. Will you see ice or snow? For many locations around Asheville, a mixed bag is possible.. but the predominate p-type appears to fall as snow. As you work your way towards Franklin, NC and the warm nose becomes more substantial, sleet and freezing rain appear to be the more likely. Some snow will fall in all of WNC though. I will put together a new map as we move forward and get more data, I just wanted to give out my initial thoughts for how much snow will actually occur. Check back for an updated map, and have a great Thursday!

WNC Preparing For High Impact Winter Storm This Weekend

Hunter Ward

December 5, 2018

As we continue to progress towards Saturday, Sunday, Monday. and even into Tuesday.. weather models will continue to refine details.. but what does appear certain is that a large amount of precipitation will slam into a nearly or completely frozen column of air above WNC late Saturday, causing problems across the area. Currently, both European and GFS models still indicate that over 1’ of snow is possible for many areas in WNC. Below you can see both the precipitation depiction & snowfall totals produced by the most recent runs of the European and GFS models.

GFS Precipitation Depiction Sunday AM courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

GFS Snowfall Accumulation Map *Only A Model Forecast* courtesy of weathermodels.com

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12z European Radar Depiction Sunday Morning courtesy of weather.us

12z European Projected Snowfall Map Only A Model Projection Not A Forecast courtesy of weather.us — 12z European Projected Snowfall Map **Only A Model Projection Not A Forecast** courtesy of weather.us

Snowfall Total Still Vary Greatly

There is still a vast differential as to how much snow will actually fall.. and beginning tomorrow, we will begin to get a much better idea as the NAM 3km gets in range. The European and its Ensemble have constantly illustrated the likelihood of 12”+ in many locations. The GFS and its Ensemble have done the same. This tell me that we need to prepare for a large snowstorm.

Concerns Heading Forward

This snow will be beautiful and fall into a nearly frozen column.. which means it will stick to everything. The heavy wet paste that will fall is going to cause problems. It will stick to trees, power lines, and most everything else around the area. Winds will gust over 30mph in many locations during the storm, and some higher elevation locations could see gusts over 60 mph. This is an extreme concern of mine moving forward. If we have 12” of snow on trees, and winds gusting to 30mph, many people around the area are going to lose power. Therefore you need to prepare. There is no need to panic though, because you have time to prepare. Just prepare to hang out at your house Sunday, Monday, & Tuesday. Thats my best advice, and play in the snow! Check back later this evening for a video update, I will add it to the top!

Also check out the new live camera I added today of Candler/Mt. Pisgah.

Hunter Ward

December 4, 2018

Models Continue To Suggest Large Winter Storm Around WNC This Weekend

Hunter Ward

December 4, 2018

Weather models continue to insist that the northern and southern jet stream will interact this weekend over WNC, and a strong winter storm could be the result. Yesterday there was some disagreement among global models as to how cold the atmosphere will actually be on Saturday, but today there appears to be agreement that the column over Asheville on Saturday evening will be frozen and support snowfall.

How Much For WNC?

Thats a tough call right now, and below you can see the most recent GFS model depiction of accumulated snow. The European shows similar totals. It has been a long time since I have seen this type of agreement among models as we approach a storm. Not only that, but in agreement that 12”+ of snow is possible. I don’t want to cause panic, but 3-4 days out with all global models showing a very large storm is something to prepare for.

*THIS IS ONLY A MODEL DEPICTION* 12z GFS Snowfall Accumulation Thru Sunday Evening Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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How To Begin To Prepare

You have plenty of time to prepare for this storm, but on your weekly store visit.. pick up some extra essentials in case you were to lose power. This snow will be a heavy wet paste like snow that sticks to most everything, so power outages are likely. It will be beautiful though! As we approach the event, I will go more in-depth about how to prepare for this storm, but right now it would be wise to get some extra items at the storm.

What Other Models Show

Below is a radar depiction from most every model I use to forecast by. As you can see there is agreement that a large storm is likely. As we approach Saturday, I will continue to update, but these show you a good picture of what is possible and what the radar could look like nationwide on Saturday.

GFS

GFS Precipitation Depiction Saturday Evening

European

ICON German Model

ICON Precipitation Depiction courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

GEM Canadian Model

GEM Precipitation Depiction courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

FV3-GFS Test (new upgraded GFS)

FV3-GFS Precipitation Depiction courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

Hunter Ward

December 2, 2018

Impactful Winter Storm Possible Around WNC Next Weekend

Hunter Ward

December 2, 2018

Interesting Week Of Weather On Tap For WNC

With snow flurries possible both Tuesday and Wednesday, then the potential for a gulf low to develop into the weekend.. the weather around WNC is about to get very interesting. Many of the major models suggest that a large winter storm could move through the southeast next weekend, causing a multitude of problems. This is not set in stone though, so some caution must be taken when review the following model data. These are simply model depictions and should not be taken as spoken word.

Snow Showers/Flurries Tuesday & Wednesday

Backside moisture will stream through the area Tuesday and into Wednesday bring the chance for snow showers in the higher elevations (above 3500’), and snow flurries in the lower elevations around Asheville. A couple of inches cannot be ruled out in the highest elevations, and a dusting cannot be ruled out north of Asheville.. but this appears to be less impactful compared to the system projected to move in late Friday night.

Gulf Low Develops

On Friday, a system develops over Texas, and begins to move towards the Southeast. This is aided by a strong banana high pressure that moves in tandem with the low. The banana high funnels in the cold air that could potential keep WNC as snow throughout the duration of the event. As you can see below on the GFS precipitation depiction, overrunning moisture begins to stream in late Friday night or early Saturday morning, and falls in the form of snow in many locations.

6z Precipitation Depiction Saturday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

The European model has been persistent with a similar solution for the past several days. The European Ensemble has also been showing a signal for a large winter storm for the past 2.5 days. This can all change quickly, but a stout high pressure like what is being modeled, is what many expected to occur this winter and can lead to some very impactful storms around WNC. Below you can see the potential snowfall total map produced by the most recent GFS. This is just one model depiction, but other models including the European have been spitting out similar solutions.

GFS 24hr snowfall total For Dec8th-9th Only A Model Depiction! Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Here you can contrast that with what the European Models shows on these free maps that can be found at weather.us.

0z European Snow Depth Map Courtesy of Weather.us

Main Takeaway

Your main takeaway from this article is that there is the potential for a very impactful winter storm to affect WNC next weekend. Nothing is certain at this moment, but models have a frozen column in place when a strong system moves in, and they are spitting at large snowfall totals. I am watching every model update, so check back soon for another update!