Snow Showers Likely For Higher Elevations In WNC Late Thursday Into Friday, Lower Elevations Could See Flurries As Well

I have been watching the progression of this system for the past several days, and backside moisture looks to be available with this system to produce some backside northwest flow snow showers. Its been close to a month since we have had any type of northwest flow activity, but with this strong low pressure developing off the Atlantic Coast.. this appears to be a good setup for elevations above 4000’ to pick up a couple of inches.

Rainfall Likely Tomorrow

Rain will push through the area early tomorrow morning, and that could fall as snow in the highest elevations on the Appalachians. 850mb temperatures though will be moderate until late in the day Thursday when they drop below freezing. That is when the chance for snowfall will increase. Below you can see a depiction of the most recent NAM 3km run and how the precipitation progresses. Notice the popcorn type precipitation that develops late in the day Thursday in ETN. That will likely be convective moisture, and we could see some convective snow showers move into WNC late Thursday night.

12z 3km NAM Precipitation Depiction For Next 60 hrs Courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com

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Accumulation??

Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km snowfall map, and you can see that a widespread 2”-4” will be possible above 4000’ on the NC/TN border. a dusting cannot be ruled out in valleys below early Saturday morning.. but I will need to continue to watch model trends to nail down exacts.

12z 3km NAM snowfall Totals Through Friday AM

High Winds Likely Thursday Night Into Friday

As the low pressure undergo’s the bomb cycle and turns into a “bombcyclone” in the Atlantic, winds will really pick across WNC. Below is another image from the 12z 3km NAM showing the wind gusts possible early Friday morning. Things will feel like winter again with gusts over 35mph! It would be wise to secure anything outside before Friday night if possible. Join me live tonight at 7:30pm in the Ashevillewx app and facebook for an update regarding the most recent model information! See you then!

Clear & Dry Around WNC For The First Half Of The Week, Then Things Get Interesting Thursday

a beautiful beginning to the week is in store for Western North Carolina with plenty of sunshine! Temperature will push into the mid 50’s both Monday & Tuesday, but clouds will move back in on Wednesday as an interesting system forms. On Wednesday night, an upper level low will push through WNC, and some moisture will fall in the area. What form of precipitation remains to be seen, but I can’t rule out some snow mixing in. These upper level low systems are notoriously difficult to predict, and we have in the past sen surprise snowfall from them. The main takeaway from this article though is that I have my eye on a system later this week, and then warmth looks to move back in by the weekend. Below you can see the 12z 3km NAM precipitation depiction through late Wednesday. Rainfall looks likely, but like I said before, these upper level lows make their own cold air, and are notoriously difficult to forecast more than 48 hours out. I’ll be discussing this live tonight in the AshevilleWX App at 7:30pm, and then shortly after on Facebook.

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Warmth Is On The Way

A somewhat short-live warmup will be on the way next weekend, so start planning for it! A southeastern ridge looks to develop late next week, and that will push warm, moist air up into WNC for the weekend. Below you can see the GFS temperature spread for Saturday afternoon, and temps in the 70’s look likely! It will be a perfect day to get out and hike so make plans now!

6z GFS Temp Depiction courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Rain Moves Out By Early Afternoon, Snow Flurries Possible Around WNC Tonight and Into Tomorrow

As this low pressure finally pushes through WNC, scattered rain showers will make for a dreary morning commute around the area. After the front passes, winds on the backside will really pick up and gust could push over 40mph in isolated valley locations. Some northwest flow moisture will be available on the backside, and that could bring a dusting-1” of snow for the highest elevations along the NC/TN border. Snow flurries could make it into the valleys around Asheville, but I am still somewhat uncertain just how much moisture will be available. Below you can see the snowfall map produced by the most recent 3km NAM.

Courtesy of  Weathermodels.com

Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Gusty Winds Expected Later Today

Winds could gust over 30mph in many locations later this evening as backside moisture begins to stream through the mountain passes. With those winds, some flakes could be propelled out of the highest elevations and into the valleys below. There is limited certainty with this forecast, but some influence from a somewhat southerly flow at the surface could moisten things.

Rain Moves Into WNC Again Late Thursday Night & Into Friday, A Few Backside Snow Showers Can't Be Ruled Out

It seems as though we are in a rinse-wash-repeat cycle in WNC where we can only manage 2-3 dry days in a row. Tuesday and Wednesday of this week will be our dry days, and then Thursday afternoon clouds will move in along with another system. In fact, this will be a remnant piece of energy on the tail end of the recorded breaking low pressure that will move across Colorado, and then the Midwest. I expect to see severe storms all across the SE over the next 2-3 days, and even a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out late Thursday or early Friday into WNC.

12km NAM Forecast GIF for next 84 hours courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

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Northwest Flow Snow Showers Possible Late Friday & Into Saturday Especially In Higher Elevations

On the backside of the low pressure that moves through the area Thursday into Friday, some isolated snow showers could be possible. Winds could gust over 40mph in some valley locations, and I think believe that that will propel flakes out of the highest elevations and into the valleys below. The main takeaway right now is that northwest flow flurries/snow showers could be possible around WNC Friday & into Saturday. I will keep my eye on this and continue to update you when necessary.

Rain Moves Into WNC Again Friday, Some Sleet/Snow Could Mix In As Precipitation Begins

I hope that you enjoyed your three days of dry weather around WNC, because this weekend will once again be soggy. Another round of rainfall will move through tomorrow, and higher elevation locations above 3500’ could see some snowfall from this. I cannot rule out some snowflakes/sleet mixing in late tonight or early tomorrow morning around WNC, but the chances are much greater above 3500’. Roadways have been cold as of late, so it will be interesting to see how the dry air aloft comes into play as the precipitation begins, and what form of precipitation falls at the onset. The earlier that the precipitation moves in, the better chance there will be for some form of wintry precipitation to mix in. Dry air will also allow some wetbulbing to occur, and that also complicates the p-type forecast. Below you can see the most recent 3km NAM precipitation depiction. It shows those higher elevation locations seeing frozen precipitation tomorrow morning.

3km NAM Precipitation Depiction For Friday 9am Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Heavy Rain Expected Tomorrow Afternoon

Cold air will quickly erode tomorrow morning, and then heavy rain and even a few claps of thunder will be possible Friday afternoon as a strengthening front pushes through the area. Below you can see the 3km NAM radar depiction for tomorrow afternoon. Notice the strong storms around Haywood & Henderson Counties. These will likely develop in Eastern TN and push through all of WNC sometime tomorrow afternoon. Upwards of 1” of rainfall will be possible as these storms move through, and that will only be round one of the rainfall moving forward into this weekend.

Nam 3km Radar Depiction For Tomorrow Afternoon Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

More Showers/Storms Possible Saturday and into Sunday

Another front will push through the area beginning early Saturday afternoon and persist through a portion of the day Sunday. It remains to be seen exactly how long this front will linger around WNC, but some short range models have some redeveloping showers late Sunday. This would further flash flood concerns. I could see many locations picking up 2”+ of rainfall over the next 3-4 days. So an active weekend of weather is on tap for WNC, and minimal sunshine appears to be on the table unfortunately.. Check back soon for another update, and check out the WNC Webcams to see what the weather is doing around WNC!

Blossom Killing Freeze Expected Tonight Around WNC, Temps Will Dip Into Teens

Any trees that were foolish enough to attempt their bloom out process will be halted immediately tonight around WNC as temperatures dip into the teens at most locations. These type temperatures will be devastating to early fruit trees, and could really cause harm to fruit trees throughout the southeast. Peach trees in SC & GA will take a hit, as well as strawberry crops in the area. Its sad because this is nothing we have control over, yet many farmers rely on these trees for their livelihood. Below you can see the most recent 3km NAM temperature depiction.

6z NAM 3km Temperatures For Wednesday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Higher Elevations Could Reach Zero

Some locations above 5500’ could fall all the way below zero tonight as a strong arctic air mass entrenches itself. Lots of trees have bloomed out even at these elevations, and sadly this will have an effect of their progression this season. Wild flowers will be less vibrant, and blooms will wither and fall off.

Scattered Snow Showers Cannot Be Ruled Out Friday AM

There is some model disagreement regarding how precipitation will begin Friday morning as this cold front retreats and precipitation moves into the area. The European models is insistent that cold air will still be in place at the onset of precipitation and a dusting will be possible around WNC, but the GFS says that that cold wedge will retreat before meaningful precipitation moves into WNC. I have my eye on Friday morning and will update you when the picture becomes a bit more clear!



Chances For Snow Showers Around WNC Monday Night Into Tuesday Increasing

A strong arctic front will move through WNC Sunday and into Monday, bringing with it cold temperatures, and the chance for some snow shower development on the tail end of the front. This setup is extremely complex and I feel that models are just now beginning to catch hold of the solution.. so don’t be surprised if we see some snowfall around WNC Monday night and into Tuesday. Bear with me as I put together this difficult forecast, and attempt to navigate the various solutions that models are producing. Below you can see the precipitation depiction map from the most recent 12z GFS run. It continues to resolve an area of overrunning precipitation that is enhanced by SW upslope flow. This area of moisture develops over a nearly frozen column, and a rain/snow mix looks possible. These models has shown this trend for the past 4 runs, and is not backing down. As soon as high resolution short range models get into range, we will have a better idea of how this will play out aloft, and how much precipitation will actually be available.

12z GFS Precipitation Depiction For Early Tuesday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Here is the 12z 3km nam as well. It is not in range just yet, but you can see the precipitation beginning to bank up on the Blue Ridge Escarpment . I expect to have a more clear picture sometime tomorrow, but for now know that the possibility for some snow does exist. Join me live tonight in the AshevilleWX App at 8pm or shortly after that on Facebook Live!

12z 3km NAM Precipitation Depiction Monday Night Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Heavy Rainfall Expected Sunday Afternoon

As the initial arctic front moves through heavy rainfall will be likely for most Sunday afternoon. Around .5” of rainfall is expected, but some isolated locations could see more. Join me live tonight at 8pm where I will discuss this more in depth.

12z NAM 3km Precipitation Depiction Sunday Afternoon Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Arctic Air Expected To Return To WNC Early Next Week, A Few Snow Showers Cannot Be Ruled Out

I am tracking two impactful systems that will move through WNC over the next week. The first wave will move through the area beginning Sunday afternoon, and persisting through Monday. This will bring down the arctic air from the north. On the tail end of that, there could be some overrunning development that produces some snow showers around WNC Tuesday into Wednesday. Right now this does not appear to be too high impact of an event, but as we move closers models could resolve more moisture.

What Will The First Front Bring?

Rainfall and cold is the answer. Below you can see the most recent GFS precipitation depiction and I it shows around .5”-1” of rain for most through Monday. Luckily this does not appear to be a large flash flood threat, simply because its duration will not last too long. The front moves through quickly and the arctic air rushes in behind.

GFS Total Precipitation Through next Monday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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GFS Projected Temps Next Wednesday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Arctic Air Threats Spring Blooms

This blast of arctic air will really damage Spring flowers that have already came out. These low temperatures will also damage tree buds that have prematurely bloomed. Sadly this will harm wildflowers in the higher elevations, and do a great deal of damage to early crops around the area, so please prepare for this cold snap.

Snow Chances Tuesday?

There is a slight chance for some snow shower development on Tuesday, but models have backed off considerably from what they initially showed earlier this week (imagine that). With the type events, small amounts of moisture can produce a couple of inches of snow when it get so cold.. and a lot of uncertainly still remains. Keep checking back here though, I will update on a regular basis regarding the latest on the potential for a few snow flakes around WNC.

High Wind Gusts Expected Through Early Tomorrow Morning Around WNC

As this strong front finally pushed through WNC, clear skies and windy conditions prevail. These winds will persist through the early morning hours of Monday for most locations, but could last through the early afternoon in some high elevation locations.

Zoom version of Nam 3km wind gusts courtesy of Weathermodels.com

How High Will Winds Gust?

Around Asheville, gust over 40mph could be possible with sustained winds of 10-15mph. At elevations above 3500’ these winds could gust over 60mph. You can see on the most recent NAM 3km run that gusts over 60mph are projected around Boone, so please be mindful of this.

3km Nam Projected Wind Gusts For Monday AM Courtesy of  Weathermodels.com

3km Nam Projected Wind Gusts For Monday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Effects From These Winds?

I expect trees to come down in many areas over the next day due to the high winds. This combated with extremely wet soil/loose root system, will easily topple trees around WNC. Power outages cannot be ruled out, in fact I expect them to increase as the night progresses. Mud slides are also possible and can be induced by these high winds. As the winds move trees around, the roots move as well. This will loosen up extremely saturated slopes, especially those that are north facing. Please report any road closures due to mud slides to the AshevilleWX Weather Community on Facebook. Check back soon for another update, and stay safe this evening!