Hunter Ward

February 2, 2019

Spring-Like Temps, Highs Close To 70 Likely Around WNC Early Next Week, But Cold Returns Next Weekend

Hunter Ward

February 2, 2019

The thaw out begins now! Locations around WNC over the next few days will feel Spring-like with temperatures pushing into the low 60’s most afternoons, and even into the low 70’s on Tuesday. The next round of rain looks to move in late Tuesday or early Wednesday, but these only appear to be scattered showers will minimal impacts. So all and all the next 5-7 days appear to be calm, mild days around WNC! I for one is happy to see the cold subside. Frozen ground makes for difficult digging, and as many of you know I am a Home Builder, so the cold weather works against my agenda. Next week though will be perfect for outdoor projects! Other then a bit of rain on Wednesday, it looks ideal for progress!

GFS Surface Temps Tuesday Afternoon Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

C.P.KrausAccounting.png — Why Stress?

Let the local WNC tax pros at C.P. Kruse & Co. take care of all your tax needs this year! Call them at (828)684-7374 or visit http://www.kruseaccounting.com

Cold Returns Next Weekend

Looking ahead at long range models, and they finally break down this persistent ridge that will send warm air our way by next weekend. A strong frontal passage looks to be on the table for late next week, and that will bring back cold temperatures to the majority of the East Coast. Cold blocking moves in to our north, and low pressures set up on the Mexico/TX border, placing NC right in the area of truncation. With high pressure persistent in the Caribbean, two areas of higher pressure will meet and create some sort trough. How this unfolds is still of course very blurry, but the return to cold does look certain. Join me tonight at 8pm in the AshevilleWX App and I will detail out my thoughts on this pattern!

GFS Model For Late Saturday Next Weekend Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

Screen Shot 2021-01-08 at 10.47.22 AM.png

Grimes Teich Anderson Downtown Asheville Live Camera

Hunter Ward

January 31, 2019

Mild Weekend Ahead With Temperatures In The Upper 50's Around WNC

Hunter Ward

January 31, 2019

The cold air finally eases off over the next couple of days around WNC and we will finally begin to thaw out somewhat. A few scattered showers cannot be ruled out tomorrow, but I main expect partly cloudy skies for most. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 50’s on both Saturday & Sunday so get out and enjoy the warm weather! Into next week we continue to thaw with temperatures on Monday and Tuesday even rising close to 60 degrees! The cold will return though next weekend! For now though my main focus is on mild temperatures and sunshine. This appears to be a nice halftime for winter, and an active pattern does appear to return mid February. Below are the temperatures for Saturday afternoon. Mid 50’s will feel nice compared to highs in the upper 30’s. If you work outdoors, next week appears to be a good week for progress.. If you are pouring concrete try and schedule for Monday or Tuesday. Have a great weekend, and check back later for more updates!

3km Nam temperatures for Saturday afternoon courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Grimes Teich Anderson Downtown Asheville Live Camera

Hunter Ward

January 29, 2019

Some Icy Roads Will Develop Around WNC Tonight As Temps Drop Into Teens/Winds Gust, Flurries Possible Again Wednesday

Hunter Ward

January 29, 2019

After a brief few hours of precipitation across WNC this afternoon.. temperatures will plummet into the teens and winds will pick up significantly. Wet roadways could turn icy as these temperatures rapidly fall. Please use caution if you are traveling around the area after the sun sets. Temperatures tomorrow will struggle to push above freezing, so limit outdoor exposure if possible! Some snow flurries/showers are likely on the TN/NC border Wednesday morning, and those flurries could even push into Asheville and surrounding areas with winds gusting over 30mph. Join me live tonight at 8pm in the AshevilleWX App where I will detail out my expectations for this backside northwest flow moisture. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km temperature chart, and it shows temperatures in the upper teens at the Asheville Airport around Midnight. Please bring pets in, and go through the necessary precautions to secure your water sources don’t freeze up. Stay safe, and check back soon for another update!

12z 3km Nam temperature output at Midnight Tonight Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Hunter Ward

January 28, 2019

AshevilleWX Projected Snowfall Totals For Tuesday January 29th

Hunter Ward

January 28, 2019

A strong arctic front will push through the Southeast beginning late tonight in the highest elevations of WNC. Moisture will flow into the valleys below shortly after, and that rain should switch to snow by daybreak. I believe a dusting to 2” will be possible for most locations around Western North Carolina, with higher totals along the NC/TN border. Roadways could become slick early tomorrow morning, so please use caution when traveling around the area. Some lee side redevelopment will occur as the front pushes across NC, and that will drop snow on some central and northerner NC counties as well. Below you can see my projected snowfall map. Join me live in the AshevilleWX App tonight at 8pm as I discuss how the storm will unfold, and what the most recent model updates show!

Hunter Ward

January 25, 2019

Snowstorm Possible Tuesday Into Wednesday Around WNC Next Week

Hunter Ward

January 25, 2019

Extremely cold temperates are on the way for the area, and accompanying those temperatures could be gulf moisture. As the polar vortex fractures, these lobes will move down into the United States, and the cold air that is associated will also move through. Most major global models have an arctic front moving in Tuesday evening with snowfall developing behind. These type system can be referred to as anafronts since they are a-typical. Usually moisture develops out in front of cold fronts, but in rare cases with so arctic fronts moisture can develop behind. That is what many of the models have been keying on. So for the weekend we have the chance of a few snow flurries Sunday as a weak clipper systems move through. Then all eyes will focus on the next arctic front and how it interacts with the Gulf. Models have been struggling greatly with this upcoming pattern, so a multitude of solutions are still on the table. so bear with me through the duration. Below you can see the most recent snowfall map produced by the European model.

12z Euro Snowfall courtesy of Weather.us

C.P.KrausAccounting copy.png — The Local Tax Team

Why both with Tax Prep chains this year? Support your local tax experts at C.P. Kruse and make an appointment today! Call (828)684-7374 or visit their website http://www.kruseaccounting.com

The GFS also shows this development as you can see below.

12z GFS Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

An anafront allows moisture to fall post frontal passage. The depiction below is from NCSU and shows how unlike a typical frontal passage, moisture is allowed to fall into the cold region of the storm. Usually we experience what are considered Katafronts, but this systems appears to be an anafront, and not just cold chasing moisture. Join me tonight at 8pm live in the AshevilleWX App as I discuss the possibilities, or tune in on Facebook live shortly after!

Hunter Ward

January 24, 2019

Snow Showers Possible Sunday Around WNC

Hunter Ward

January 24, 2019

A clipper system will push through WNC on Sunday, bringing with it cold temperatures, gusty winds, and even some snow showers for many in Western North Carolina. Short range models are just beginning to resolve this solution, but as we progress towards Sunday, I expect to have a better idea of how much if any snow will accumulate. Surface temperatures may rise close to 40 on Sunday around Asheville, but upper level temperatures will be very cold, so that increases the likelihood that flakes will not melt as they approach the valley surface. Most models show very limited if any accumulation with this event, but sometimes with these smaller events here in WNC, the models struggle to resolve the solution until 24-36 hours out. So what you should take away from this, is that windy conditions are likely today as temperatures fall throughout the day. Snow showers can’t be ruled in the higher elevations through Friday. Then a clipper system will move through the area beginning Sunday. Join me live in the AshevilleWX App at tonight at 8pm for a discussion of what the most recent models show, and my thoughts on how the event will progress!

6z Nam Precipitation Depiction Early Sunday Afternoon Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com

Hunter Ward

January 20, 2019

Freezing Rain Possible Around WNC Late Tuesday Into Wednesday

Hunter Ward

January 20, 2019

Precipitation out in front of a strong low pressure will push into a deep wedge that entrenched over the Southeast beginning late Tuesday night, and will persist through the early hours of Wednesday morning. Upper level temperatures do not appear to be supportive for snowfall, but a layer of frozen air looks to develop between the surface and 5000’. This could be very problematic because of how cold the surface will be when this precipitation moves in. So locations will struggle to push above freezing before it arrives, and surfaces will likely be ripe for ice accretion to occur. Below you can see the radar depiction per the 18z 3km NAM late Tuesday evening.

As you can see, some areas may not see this freezing rain.. but the possibility is certainly there. So the main takeaway here is that I have my eye on Tuesday night into Wednesday for an icy mix to occur around part of WNC. I will update about exact locations that should experience ice as we get a little closer!

Hunter Ward

January 18, 2019

Thunderstorms Likely Ahead Of Arctic Front Saturday Evening Around WNC

Hunter Ward

January 18, 2019

Short range models continue to refine how exactly the next front will move through, but it appears more and more likely that thunderstorms will be possible around WNC late Saturday afternoon, or Saturday evening. This is all associated with the arctic front that I have been tracking for the past week. This will be the coldest air of the season so far, but more shots of cold air will be on the way over the next month. Below you can see the most recent 12km Nam run, and it has a strong line of storms moving in late Saturday. Following this front, backside moisture will move through WNC and some snow showers cannot be ruled out Sunday morning. Winds will gust over 30mph for many locations and temperatures could plummet into the low 20’s by Sunday morning. Monday morning though will be extremely cold, and many locations will reach the low teens. I can’t rule out some isolated 0 degree readings above 4500’ either! So please begin to prepare yourself and your household for the extreme cold that appears imminent. I will do a live in-app update tonight at 7:30pm, and then that video will be uploaded to facebook after, so be sure to tune in for more information.

12z Nam Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

Hunter Ward

January 17, 2019

Short Range Models Indicate Rain To Snow Transition Possible This Afternoon Around Asheville

Hunter Ward

January 17, 2019

The most recent run of the Nam 3km indicates that a switch from rain to snow will be possible this afternoon as precipitation becomes heavy around WNC. This switchover will not occur everywhere, but some locations that do switch to snow could see a dusting to 1” of accumulation. Below you can see the most recent precipitation depiction map for 2-3pm this afternoon. It shows a heavy band of precipitation (that you can currently see in Eastern Tennessee) moving through WNC and switching to snow for some locations.

12z 3km Nam Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

C.PKruse 700x350.jpg — Trust The Tax Pros

It’s time to get your taxes done again this year, so why not let the local pros at C.P. Kruse handle the hassle for you? Call them at (828) 684-7374 or visit their website http://www.kruseaccounting.com

Here is the total snowfall map that the 3km nam produced. I expect precipitation to begin to move in over the next hour or so, and a switch could occur around 2pm-3pm. This map shows a widespread dusting. This indeed is possible, and if heavy snow were to fall for an hour or so, a dusting to 1” would be the result. Be sure to report what you are seeing to the AshevilleWX Weather Community on Facebook!

12z 3km NAM Snowfall Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Watch The Snow Fall

Check in with the AshevilleWX HD Live Webcams this afternoon to see where the snow is falling! You can find them here:

Grimes Teich Anderson LLP Downtown Asheville Camera

Henco Reprographics Candler/Mt. Pisgah Camera

Olivette Riverside Farm Community Alexander, NC Camera

Haywood County Farm Bureau Insurance Canton/Dutch Cove Camera

Hunter Ward

January 17, 2019

Rain/Some Snow Flurries Move Into WNC Today, Then Arctic Air Expected To End Weekend

Hunter Ward

January 17, 2019

A surface front will move through WNC later this afternoon, and that could bring interesting weather to many around the area. Some models suggest that these rain showers could switch to snow in some valleys. Higher elevations will certainly see a switch over, and some locations above 4000’ could pick up a quick couple of inches. Roadways in higher elevations could get slick this evening, but temperatures will rebound tomorrow.. so just be patient if your road is snow covered and you feel unsafe to drive. Below is the current radar (9:00am) and you can see a large swath of moisture in TN making its way towards WNC. A cold wedge is setup across portions of the area, and that could help create mixed precipitation as the heaviest precipitation moves through the area. Its hard for me to pin point exactly which areas will mix, but locations who received ice over the weekend (favored CAD areas) are more likely to see that switch because CAD wedge air is what will produce it.

Screen Shot 2019-01-17 at 9.01.06 AM.png

It’s Tax Season Again

That means its time to contact the local pros at C.P. Kruse Accounting to handle all your tax prep needs! Call them at (828)684-7374 or visit their website http://www.kruseaccounting.com

Both global models (GFS&Euro) show some type of switchover around the Asheville Airport later tonight, but the short range models don’t really see it that clearly. Temps hover in the upper 30’s and upper level temperatures are less supportive. Therefore a blend of the two would be flurries mixing in with rain as the system moves through the area. Here is The GFS snowfall map. You can see that it believes a dusting is possible in Henderson Co. but I am hesitant to believe it is correct because it doesn’t have short range model support.

6z GFS Snowfall Total Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Compare that with the most recent NAM 3km run (below) snowfall totals, and they are very different. I tend to side with the NAM 3km, but we will see what the runs today show.

6z Nam 3km Snowfall Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Please report any snowfall to the AshevilleWX Weather Community on Facebook.

Arctic Air Moves In, Snow Showers Possible Sunday

More rain looks likely Saturday night into Sunday, as an arctic front moves through the area. Rain will begin late Saturday around WNC, and could switch quickly to snow sometime early Sunday morning. The details regarding this front still need to be hammered out, but temperatures Monday morning around WNC could fall into the low teens. Elevations above 3500’ will most certainly see snowfall from this event, in fact a couple of inches of accumulation cannot be ruled out. Below you can see the GFS precipitation depiction, and that northwest flow moisture banking up against the Appalachians.

6z GFS Precipitation Depiction Sunday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

As that moisture gets strained out, winds will likely carry snow showers into the valleys below. I will do another video update in the AshevilleWX App tonight so make sure you have that downloaded! You can watch active weather on AshevilleWX’s live webcam network.. Those can always be found here:

Grimes Teich Anderson Downtown Asheville Camera

Henco Reprographics Candler/Mt. Pisgah Camera

Olivette Riverside Farm Community Alexander, NC Camera

Haywood County Farm Bureau Insurance Canton/Dutch Cove Camera