After a brief few hours of precipitation across WNC this afternoon.. temperatures will plummet into the teens and winds will pick up significantly. Wet roadways could turn icy as these temperatures rapidly fall. Please use caution if you are traveling around the area after the sun sets. Temperatures tomorrow will struggle to push above freezing, so limit outdoor exposure if possible! Some snow flurries/showers are likely on the TN/NC border Wednesday morning, and those flurries could even push into Asheville and surrounding areas with winds gusting over 30mph. Join me live tonight at 8pm in the AshevilleWX App where I will detail out my expectations for this backside northwest flow moisture. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km temperature chart, and it shows temperatures in the upper teens at the Asheville Airport around Midnight. Please bring pets in, and go through the necessary precautions to secure your water sources don’t freeze up. Stay safe, and check back soon for another update!
A strong arctic front will push through the Southeast beginning late tonight in the highest elevations of WNC. Moisture will flow into the valleys below shortly after, and that rain should switch to snow by daybreak. I believe a dusting to 2” will be possible for most locations around Western North Carolina, with higher totals along the NC/TN border. Roadways could become slick early tomorrow morning, so please use caution when traveling around the area. Some lee side redevelopment will occur as the front pushes across NC, and that will drop snow on some central and northerner NC counties as well. Below you can see my projected snowfall map. Join me live in the AshevilleWX App tonight at 8pm as I discuss how the storm will unfold, and what the most recent model updates show!
Extremely cold temperates are on the way for the area, and accompanying those temperatures could be gulf moisture. As the polar vortex fractures, these lobes will move down into the United States, and the cold air that is associated will also move through. Most major global models have an arctic front moving in Tuesday evening with snowfall developing behind. These type system can be referred to as anafronts since they are a-typical. Usually moisture develops out in front of cold fronts, but in rare cases with so arctic fronts moisture can develop behind. That is what many of the models have been keying on. So for the weekend we have the chance of a few snow flurries Sunday as a weak clipper systems move through. Then all eyes will focus on the next arctic front and how it interacts with the Gulf. Models have been struggling greatly with this upcoming pattern, so a multitude of solutions are still on the table. so bear with me through the duration. Below you can see the most recent snowfall map produced by the European model.
The GFS also shows this development as you can see below.
An anafront allows moisture to fall post frontal passage. The depiction below is from NCSU and shows how unlike a typical frontal passage, moisture is allowed to fall into the cold region of the storm. Usually we experience what are considered Katafronts, but this systems appears to be an anafront, and not just cold chasing moisture. Join me tonight at 8pm live in the AshevilleWX App as I discuss the possibilities, or tune in on Facebook live shortly after!
A clipper system will push through WNC on Sunday, bringing with it cold temperatures, gusty winds, and even some snow showers for many in Western North Carolina. Short range models are just beginning to resolve this solution, but as we progress towards Sunday, I expect to have a better idea of how much if any snow will accumulate. Surface temperatures may rise close to 40 on Sunday around Asheville, but upper level temperatures will be very cold, so that increases the likelihood that flakes will not melt as they approach the valley surface. Most models show very limited if any accumulation with this event, but sometimes with these smaller events here in WNC, the models struggle to resolve the solution until 24-36 hours out. So what you should take away from this, is that windy conditions are likely today as temperatures fall throughout the day. Snow showers can’t be ruled in the higher elevations through Friday. Then a clipper system will move through the area beginning Sunday. Join me live in the AshevilleWX App at tonight at 8pm for a discussion of what the most recent models show, and my thoughts on how the event will progress!
Precipitation out in front of a strong low pressure will push into a deep wedge that entrenched over the Southeast beginning late Tuesday night, and will persist through the early hours of Wednesday morning. Upper level temperatures do not appear to be supportive for snowfall, but a layer of frozen air looks to develop between the surface and 5000’. This could be very problematic because of how cold the surface will be when this precipitation moves in. So locations will struggle to push above freezing before it arrives, and surfaces will likely be ripe for ice accretion to occur. Below you can see the radar depiction per the 18z 3km NAM late Tuesday evening.
As you can see, some areas may not see this freezing rain.. but the possibility is certainly there. So the main takeaway here is that I have my eye on Tuesday night into Wednesday for an icy mix to occur around part of WNC. I will update about exact locations that should experience ice as we get a little closer!
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Short range models continue to refine how exactly the next front will move through, but it appears more and more likely that thunderstorms will be possible around WNC late Saturday afternoon, or Saturday evening. This is all associated with the arctic front that I have been tracking for the past week. This will be the coldest air of the season so far, but more shots of cold air will be on the way over the next month. Below you can see the most recent 12km Nam run, and it has a strong line of storms moving in late Saturday. Following this front, backside moisture will move through WNC and some snow showers cannot be ruled out Sunday morning. Winds will gust over 30mph for many locations and temperatures could plummet into the low 20’s by Sunday morning. Monday morning though will be extremely cold, and many locations will reach the low teens. I can’t rule out some isolated 0 degree readings above 4500’ either! So please begin to prepare yourself and your household for the extreme cold that appears imminent. I will do a live in-app update tonight at 7:30pm, and then that video will be uploaded to facebook after, so be sure to tune in for more information.
The most recent run of the Nam 3km indicates that a switch from rain to snow will be possible this afternoon as precipitation becomes heavy around WNC. This switchover will not occur everywhere, but some locations that do switch to snow could see a dusting to 1” of accumulation. Below you can see the most recent precipitation depiction map for 2-3pm this afternoon. It shows a heavy band of precipitation (that you can currently see in Eastern Tennessee) moving through WNC and switching to snow for some locations.
Here is the total snowfall map that the 3km nam produced. I expect precipitation to begin to move in over the next hour or so, and a switch could occur around 2pm-3pm. This map shows a widespread dusting. This indeed is possible, and if heavy snow were to fall for an hour or so, a dusting to 1” would be the result. Be sure to report what you are seeing to the AshevilleWX Weather Community on Facebook!
Watch The Snow Fall
Check in with the AshevilleWX HD Live Webcams this afternoon to see where the snow is falling! You can find them here:
A surface front will move through WNC later this afternoon, and that could bring interesting weather to many around the area. Some models suggest that these rain showers could switch to snow in some valleys. Higher elevations will certainly see a switch over, and some locations above 4000’ could pick up a quick couple of inches. Roadways in higher elevations could get slick this evening, but temperatures will rebound tomorrow.. so just be patient if your road is snow covered and you feel unsafe to drive. Below is the current radar (9:00am) and you can see a large swath of moisture in TN making its way towards WNC. A cold wedge is setup across portions of the area, and that could help create mixed precipitation as the heaviest precipitation moves through the area. Its hard for me to pin point exactly which areas will mix, but locations who received ice over the weekend (favored CAD areas) are more likely to see that switch because CAD wedge air is what will produce it.
Both global models (GFS&Euro) show some type of switchover around the Asheville Airport later tonight, but the short range models don’t really see it that clearly. Temps hover in the upper 30’s and upper level temperatures are less supportive. Therefore a blend of the two would be flurries mixing in with rain as the system moves through the area. Here is The GFS snowfall map. You can see that it believes a dusting is possible in Henderson Co. but I am hesitant to believe it is correct because it doesn’t have short range model support.
Compare that with the most recent NAM 3km run (below) snowfall totals, and they are very different. I tend to side with the NAM 3km, but we will see what the runs today show.
Please report any snowfall to the AshevilleWX Weather Community on Facebook.
Arctic Air Moves In, Snow Showers Possible Sunday
More rain looks likely Saturday night into Sunday, as an arctic front moves through the area. Rain will begin late Saturday around WNC, and could switch quickly to snow sometime early Sunday morning. The details regarding this front still need to be hammered out, but temperatures Monday morning around WNC could fall into the low teens. Elevations above 3500’ will most certainly see snowfall from this event, in fact a couple of inches of accumulation cannot be ruled out. Below you can see the GFS precipitation depiction, and that northwest flow moisture banking up against the Appalachians.
As that moisture gets strained out, winds will likely carry snow showers into the valleys below. I will do another video update in the AshevilleWX App tonight so make sure you have that downloaded! You can watch active weather on AshevilleWX’s live webcam network.. Those can always be found here:
Some rain/snow showers are possible around WNC this evening and into tomorrow, with higher elevation locations(above 3500’) seeing some form of accumulation. I don’t expect to see totals much over 3” though even in the highest elevations. I have moved my focus towards the pattern change that will occur late next weekend. Long range models are hinting at a Polar Vortex displacement, and that would allow extremely cold air to move into the Southeast beginning next Sunday.
How Cold Are We Talking?
Some models have indicated that low temperatures could push into the negatives digits around WNC, but we are still 8-10 days away from that cold..so a great deal can change. Below you can see the most recent GFS FV3 temperature depiction for Sunday morning. It drops temps into the low teens, with Northwest Flow moisture streaming in off the Great Lakes.
The storm depicted is interesting because its a strong arctic front that pushes through the area. Some models have indicated that it could move farther south, and that leaves the door open to a more wintery solution in WNC. So what you need to know is that I have my eye on next weekend and a strong(more winter like) pattern change that looks to occur. I will be doing a live in-app update at 5:30pm today so be sure to download the app and tune in. I will also be discussing a shortwave front that will move through WNC Thursday into Friday. This front could bring some snow showers to higher elevations locations, so be sure to join me as I cover the possibilities!
A mixed bag of precipitation is likely over the weekend around WNC, and portions of the Piedmont. Cold air will be funneled in ahead of the front, allowing surface temps to dip below freezing as precipitation moves in. It is still uncertain exactly how this system will unfold, but here are my latest thoughts on how the event will unfold! This will be an extend event, and backside snow showers could linger through Monday evening. As heavier precipitation moves into WNC Saturday night, roadways could become slick as snow/sleet/freezing rain falls. Some models show surface temps in the upper 20’s when this heavy precipitation moves in, and that will likely cause travel problems for many. This cold wedge will struggle to reach west of Asheville, and a warm nose could keep those areas less icy. Some models though show the cold wedge all the way into NGA, so uncertainty is the key here. Prepare for an ice storm, and hope it doesn’t come to fruition… I will be live tonight on the AshevilleWX App at 7pm so join me there as I detail out the timing of precipitation, and what p-types are most likely to fall in which areas!