Wintry Mix Possible Early Saturday & Again Sunday Around WNC

A wintry mix cannot be ruled out early tomorrow morning as overrunning precipitation from a weak front located in Texas move through WNC. Dew points will make this a tricky forecast because surface temperatures will be below freezing, and upper level temperatures will be above freezing. Depending on how much dry air exist between the surface and warm temps will determine how much dynamic cooling occurs. Dynamic cooling or evaporational cooling occur when moisture descends down a column of air that is not completely saturated. As the dry air around it absorbs the moisture as it falls, a natural cooling occurs. This is how snowflakes make it through layers of air that are not completely frozen. I think this type of setup will occur early tomorrow morning, and could bring some surprise snow flurries to many in the area. Models are struggling to resolve this solution, but when these baroclinic zones develop between two areas of high pressure and the zone is directed towards WNC.. upslope flow throws models off.

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I am hesitant to believe that we will see too much of an impact from this system, but some ice accumulation cannot be ruled out. If precipitation is heavy enough, some could see bursts of snow, and an isolated dusting is possible.


Late Friday night and into Saturday morning will be the first round, and then another round will be possible as a cold wedge builds in during the morning Sunday. These appear to be relatively low impact events because roadways are warm.. but looking downstream, the NWS in Texas had to issue Winter Weather Advisories after the fact because roadway conditions deteriorated today as ice/freezing rain/snow fell. Please make sure to report anything you see to the AshevilleWX Weather Community on Facebook and check back soon for another update!