Hunter Ward

January 31, 2020

Snow Falling Across WNC Currently, Accumulation Possible For Many

Hunter Ward

January 31, 2020

Snow is falling across many locations in WNC and could accumulate as the afternoon progresses for some, especially along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Check out the WNC Webcams! Below you can see the most recent Nam 3k snowfall map.

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How Long Will It Snow

Well below you can see the radar depiction for the next 60 hours per the most recent HRRR model and it indicates that the moisture will likely move out of WNC by 8-9pm. I do however expect to see a rain snow mix for many until then.

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Backside Snow Possible?

Yes, some locations along the NC/TN border could experience backside snow as we progress through the day on Saturday, but most models do not have hefty accumulations. The winds will pick up though and could gust over 30 mph Saturday afternoon for some. I will update again if snowfall totals do begin to increase.

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Warm Up In Store Next Week

Check out the Euro temperature spread for the next couple of days! Yes that is right you are seeing 70’s again. It will feel Spring like around WNC. But no worries, the rain will return again late next week if you were missing it!

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Check Out Snow Falling On WNC Webcams

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Hunter Ward

January 29, 2020

Snow Showers Possible This Evening For Many Around WNC, Then Another Chance This Weekend

Hunter Ward

January 29, 2020

A weak low pressure is currently meandering along the Gulf Coast States and some moisture looks to move into to WNC late this afternoon. Upper level temperatures will be supportive of snowfall for many locations even in some isolated valleys. Ground temperatures in valley locations will be less supportive of accumulation, but I believe a few surprises could be in store. Below you can see a simulation of the most recent Nam 3km model run. As you can see, spotty precipitation will push in just before sunset, and with a nearly frozen column above… some locations could experience a switch from rain to snow.

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Will There Be Accumulation?

Yes. Especially for locations above 3000’. a dusting cannot be ruled out below that North of I-40/U.S. 74, but I am cautiously optimistic. I am calling for 1-3” above 3000’ and a possible surprise below. Temperatures will be very borderline around WNC tonight as precipitation falls through the atmosphere. A slight warm bubble at the surface could keep rain from changing to snow in some locations south of I-40, but I at least think we will see some form of wintry mix north of I-40 this evening.

Weekend Rain/Snow Threat

There is still a chance for some form of snowfall around WNC on Friday night and Early Saturday morning in WNC as another front moves through the area. Wow what an active pattern! This will be the forth frontal passage in the past 7 days! With this weekend threat, there appears to be two periods where snowfall could potentially be possible for WNC locations. The first would be late Friday night or Early Saturday morning as a stout conveyer belt of moisture rotates into WNC. This will be associated with a surface front that moves at first along the Gulf, but then transfers to the Atlantic. As the moisture transport moves into WNC, temperatures will be above freezing at the surface. If this were to switch to snow, we would have to rely heavily on Dynamic Cooling (dry air cooling process) to produce Wetbulbing. Several models were showing this storm as a decent threat a few days ago, but since then most have pushed its development with a trailing upper level low much farther North. Below you can see how the Nam model changes some high elevation locations to snow as the initial surface front moves in.

Backside Upper Level Low

There is an upper level low that will interact somewhat with this surface front that moves through over the weekend. This ULL or upper level low appears to have a good bit of energy associated with it, and will likely be another chance for many in WNC to see snowfall. This will rotate through late Saturday night and into Sunday on the backside of the low pressure. Winds will likely gust over 40mph in many locations as backside moisture is strained out by the Appalachians. Short range models are not in range yet with this upper level low so expect some volatility with this upcoming forecast. With that being said, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to how this weekend storm will unfold. Below is a depiction of the possible moisture that will be available on Saturday afternoon, but as of now like I said, still great uncertainty. I’ll do my best to keep you informed, and give my best forecast. For warm weather lover, it appears a return to Spring like temperatures will great you early next week!

60’s & 70’s Likely Monday & Tuesday For WNC

Yes that is right, another Southeast ridge looks to build and that will likely bring excessive warmth back to the mountains of WNC and all of the Southeast early next week. Highs around Asheville on Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday will reach close to 70 degrees, so if you have outdoor activities you’d like to complete.. early next week will be perfect! Below you can see the temperature spread from the Euro over the next 10 days. That ridge does build early next week, but for cold & snow lovers that ridge will be beat down by the end of next week and more seasonable temperatures appear likely. For now though, it appears as though it will feel like Spring for most early next week. Enjoy!

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Hunter Ward

January 24, 2020

Multiple Chances For Snow Showers Over The Next 10 Days Around WNC

Hunter Ward

January 24, 2020

Several long range models continue to illustrate a pattern conducive for snow over the next 10 days with multiple shots at snow showers through next Sunday. Details still remain somewhat blurry, but it appears that several pieces of energy will move through WNC in the near term. Below I will break down the various chances over the next week, and give my thoughts on when the best chance for snowflakes will be.

Threat #1 (Mainly Higher Elevations)

As I am writing this article (Friday evening), a front is moving over WNC. As this front clears out, winds will pick up dramatically around the area. Northwest flow snow showers will also be possible as backside moisture banks up against the Appalachians. 1”-3” of snow will be possible for locations above 4000’, and even a few flurries cannot be ruled out for Asheville Saturday night & into Sunday. Below you can see a depiction of the NAM.

Threat #2

Early Monday morning a low pressure will begin to develop on the tail end of a cold front after it passes through WNC. These type events in the past have been know to produce surprise 1”-3” events with cold already in place. On Monday morning upper level temperatures appear to be somewhat supportive of snowfall for many locations around the area. I am watching this system very closely because it could cause problems on the roadways as rush hour begins. There are no certainties with this threat, but know that several models including the European and GFS show some form of snow falling around WNC early Monday AM. Below you can see a depiction of the NAM model as precipitation moves in Monday AM.

Watch for another update soon on this particular system. I am very interesting in how it will progress because temperatures will be very close for snowfall in several areas. This will include valley locations like Asheville, Waynesville, Sylva, & even possibly Franklin. So, a decent chance for many snow lovers here in the mountains of WNC to see snow falling from the sky. Nothing is set in stone with this one though yet, and even if it doens’t pan out, there will be two other chances as we progress towards next weekend.

Threat #3

Wednesday evening another weak low pressure will move along the Gulf of Mexico, and overrunning precipitation could move into WNC. The Canadian model shows cold air in place, and no real warm nose with this system. That could potential be a recipe for another weak snowfall event around WNC. Of course short range models will need to get ahold of this system to really resolve the details. Below you can see the Canadian model and what it depicts for mid next week.

GEM Model Courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com

Likewise, below is the GFS model at the same time period. You can see it does not blossom the precipitation shield like the Canadian Model shows. These small details are crucial to making a forecast for WNC and I will need more information before any certainties can be reached.

Threat #4 (Massive Uncertainty Here)

Most all long range global models have hinted at the possibility for a large East Coast Snowstorm at some point next weekend. Usually I don’t mention threats this far out, but there have been several runs where a strong phasing low pressure has dropped lots of precipitation somewhere along the East Coast. What you need to know right now is that a very strong system appears to be down the pipeline, and it bears watching. There could be some wild snowfall maps produced by models over the next week, but i’ll do my best to keep a level head and forecast to the best of my abilities as we progress through this next week.

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Hunter Ward

January 22, 2020

Another Round Of Rainfall In Store For WNC To End The Week

Hunter Ward

January 22, 2020

What once appeared as a chance for snowfall for some has quickly diminished and only rainfall is expected for most on Friday as a front passes through. Some models showed this front lagging a bit and not entering WNC until late Friday which would have been a more favorable temperature profile for snow, but as we have progressed this week.. models have sped up the system. Below you can see the 3km Nam precipitation depiction for the area as the front pushes through.

3km Nam Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

How Much Rain Is Expected?

Rainfall amounts around WNC will vary, but in general I believe a half inch to an inch of rainfall will be likely for the majority of the area. Isolated locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment could see higher totals, but I do not expect flash flooding to be a significant concern though it could be possible around Boone. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km Precipitation Total.

Nam Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Isolated Sleet Possible

With the cold air that will be entrenched, there’s a possibility that isolated locations around WNC could see initial precipitation begin as some sleet. This does not appear to last long though as warm air advection will flood the area with above freezing temperatures. Unfortunately for snow lovers, this does not appear to be the one that will be those accumulating snowfall totals that have been wished for. There is a chance for some backside snow shower activity though.

Backside Snow Showers Possible Saturday

After the front passes through, an upper level low will run the spine of the Appalachians, and that will bring accumulating snowfall to the high elevations of WNC. How much is still very uncertain, but it does appear that another 1’-3” event will be possible for locations above 3500’ within 15 miles of the NC/TN border. Will Asheville see flurries? It is very possible, but like I said, several details will need to be resolved before I get the best idea on how the flow will approach the area. Below you can see a depiction of the most recent GFS run and what it shows Saturday Evening.

GFS Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Cooler Weather Continues Highs Over The Next 10 Days Only In The 40’s

If you were planning outdoor activities over the next 10 days, it would be wise to include a coat in those plans. Looking ahead on the long range forecast and it does appear that it will stay cold. Below you can see the long range forecast per the European model, and as you can see the high each afternoon struggle to push towards 50 degrees. So we have switched from a period of well above average to now a period of average to below average. And that does appear to be the theme moving into February. Have a great weekend, and bundle up, it will be windy and cold on Saturday & Sunday.

Long Range Forecast Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Hunter Ward

January 19, 2020

Teens likely For WNC Tuesday Morning, Sub Freezing Temps Possible For Entire State Of NC

Hunter Ward

January 19, 2020

As an arctic front will finally push through the area bringing down winter like temperatures for the first time since mid November. This front could have a few snow flurries associated with its passage, but I don’t not believe that anything too impactful should be expected. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km temperature depiction for Tuesday Morning, and when you walk outside you will certainly feel it!

3km Nam Temps Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Will There Be Snow With This Arctic Front

Most will not see anything from this, but the higher elevations could pick up a dusting to 1” as the upper level disturbance pushes through. Locations above 4000’ on the NC/TN border have a slight chance to see snowfall late Monday night or early Tuesday Morning. This should not add up to meaningful accumulation though that would cause extensive roadway problems. The main story will be the cold and the gusty winds around WNC. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km depiction of the wind gusts possible on Tuesday am. Gusts over 25mph will be likely, and with the temps in the teens, windchills will dip close to zero around Asheville. Here is a look at the potential wind gust around WNC.

Wind Gusts From 3km NAM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Negative Wind Chills Possible Above 3500’ Monday & Tuesday Night

As the winds pick up on the backside of this upper level low passage, wind chills around WNC will dip below zero for some. This will certainly feel like a shock to the system after the above average January we have had so far this year. Please be sure to bring in pets from outside, and it would be wise to secure things outside to withstand the gusty winds. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km wind chill depiction on early Tuesday Morning.

Wind Chill Temps Tuesday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

as you can see, widespread single digit wind chills will be likely Tuesday am and it will be an extremely cold morning to stand at the bus stop. Please be sure to plan accordingly.

Long Range Models Indicate Another Wet Weekend Next Week

Yep, unfortunately this will make it 8 out of the last 9 (I think) weekends with measurable precipitation. There are still lots of details to hammer down about this frontal passage that will move through next weekend, but just know that I have my eye on the potential for another wet event. Some models have some form of frozen precipitation associated, but it is really all going to depend on the track of the low pressure, and when the upper level streams phase. What does appear certain is that the warm 60 & 70 degree days are gone for the time being. Most models only show a high over the next 10 days in the mid 50’s for WNC. Below you can see the progression of the European model with this long range system that will affect WNC this weekend. It cuts the low up through the Ohio valley, before phasing the streams off the East Coast.

Now compare that with what ICON (German) models show. As you can see below, this model allow the Gulf Low to dominate, and the Northern portion of the Jet Stream is pulled down. That allows the Upper Level Low to dip under the Apps and puts WNC in play for some form of wintry weather. Currently I am siding with the Euro until it loses its cutter look, but I have to admit that a few Euro ensemble members showed the dominate Gulf Low so we could be seeing a trend. As for now, just know that I am watching the system, and will update you if necessary regarding how it will unfold!

ICON Model Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

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Hunter Ward

January 14, 2020

Cold Returns To WNC Late This Weekend As Pattern Change Is On The Horizon

Hunter Ward

January 14, 2020

It appears as though we will go from one extreme to the other with a large temperature swing to begin next week. Models are keying in on heights building in Canada, and that will send down the cold air as we move into next week. Some models even show the freezing line close to the Gulf Coast on next Tuesday Morning! Below you can see a depiction of possible temperatures around WNC for early Tuesday Morning. Yes, those are mid teens! That is going to do some big time damage to plants who have fallen for a false spring with the recent warm spell.

GFS Temps For Tuesday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Rainfall Likely Through Thursday AM Around WNC

Several rounds of rainfall are still likely over the next two days as conditions will be ripe for shower activity. A constant stream of moisture will continue to move through until the hose is shutoff sometime during the morning on Thursday. Below you can see a depiction of the most recent NAM 3km precipitation depiction and what it shows regarding rainfall.

Nam 3km Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

How Much Rain Will Fall?

Heavy rain is currently falling across much of the area (8am Tuesday) and that could continue for several hours today. Then showers will re fire into tomorrow, and flash flooding concerns will continue to increase. Below you can see the most recent rainfall totals from the 3km NAM. Between 1”-2” over the next day and a half will be likely around the Asheville area. Locations along the NC/TN border will see even more rainfall as the moisture moves in from the Northwest. Isolated locations along the NC/TN border could see over 3” of rainfall through early Thursday. Flash flooding will continue to be of concern.

3km NAM Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Flash Flooding Concerns Increased For SW WNC

Locations around Franklin & Murphy will see the heaviest rainfall as the band orients itself in a favorable fashion for rainfall to be wrung out in those areas. Totals over 3” would not surprise me through Thursday morning around Franklin as this rain will feel relentless. Please be mindful of this if you live near a stream or river that is quick to rise. This rain is falling heavy at times and those quick bursts can really catch a person off guard if they are not paying attention. Please report any flooding you see to Ashevillewx on facebook.

Some Models Hinting At Wintry Precipitation Late Friday/Early Saturday

To wrap this article up, I am going to key on the slight chance for wintry precipitation at the onset of a frontal passage late Friday night or early Saturday morning. A high pressure will push in cold air at the surface late Friday night just before a front begins to move in. Those stray showers out ahead of the front will move over the cold surface air, and could create some form of wintry mix on Friday and into Saturday. Other models show that most areas will be too warm for any wintry precipitation to fall. Just know that I have my eye on this and will update you if necessary!

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Hunter Ward

January 7, 2020

Warm Weather & Storms Likely This Weekend Around WNC

Hunter Ward

January 7, 2020

A stout ridge will develop in the Southern Atlantic Ocean and that will flood WNC with warm air on Friday and into Saturday. This warm southerly flow though is not a good combination when mixed with an approached strong low pressure system. Typically when this pattern comes to fruition, it spells severe weather for the Southeast. The timing currently for these storms to affect WNC still needs to be nailed down, but as of now the threat appears to be just after the sun sets on Saturday night. Heavy rain will be likely, with rumbles of thunder and flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Below you can see the progression of the GFS as the system moves through.

GFS Precipitation Depiction Through Sunday Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

How Warm Will It Get Around WNC?

Many models indicate that locations around WNC will push into the lower 60’s on Saturday afternoon before the front moves through. Below you can see the projected temperatures for Saturday afternoon per the most recent GFS model run. You can see the approaching from back in Eastern Tennessee that could bring a bit of severe weather as well.

GFS Saturday Afternoon Temps Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

How Much Rainfall Are We Talking?

Among major global weather models, there is a decent spread as to how much rain will actually fall. The European models shows around an inch or rainfall, whereas the GFS indicates that almost 2” of rain will be possible. The GFS solution would lead to flash flooding in portions of WNC. The Euro solution, while wet, doesn’t nearly wring out the moisture from the front like the GFS portrays. It will be interesting to see how this system comes to fruition. Below you can see both the GFS and Euro total precipitation.

GFS Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

ECMWF Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Will It Ever Feel Like Winter?

In the short range, no.. Next week models show above average warmth for the area. But there is some hope in the long range. The European long range model is showing a cool down to end the month for most of the Southeast. So for snow lovers, the winter season is not over yet and there will still be chances for winter weather. Below is the short range temperatures projection from the European model. As you can see, it believes well above average temperatures could be on their way. This could break records in parts of the Southeast.

That looks extremely warm! Nothing that I am looking forward too…. But on that same model, we see a temperature reversal in the long range for the Southeast. From the 26th of January to the 4th of February the Long Range European Ensemble shows below normal temperatures across the Southeast. The would be a time frame that would be conducive for snowfall. That being said, these models can reverse. Another long range model, the CFS doesn’t show this type cold… so snow lovers should be rooting for the European model to be correct. Enjoy the warm weather though and do something outside! Check back soon for more information.

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Hunter Ward

January 5, 2020

Another Round Of Snowfall Possible For WNC Tuesday Morning

Hunter Ward

January 5, 2020

An interesting Shortwave Front will enter WNC early Tuesday Morning, and could cause problems for some around the area. Models are struggling somewhat with temperature profiles as the main moisture enters the area, but short range models are beginning to indicate that a near frozen column will set up over a good portion of WNC. Below you can see the depiction of the most recent 3km Nam and the front that it shows moving in early Tuesday Morning.

3km Nam Projected Radar Through Tuesday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Precipitation Depiction at 9-10am Tuesday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Temperature Profiles Questionable

As this storm approaches, a weak high pressure will funnel in a bit of surface cold. Aloft, temperatures will be very cold as an upper level low runs up the Appalachians. Below I have pulled the air temperature sounding from the most recent Nam 3km to dive deep into the profiles of the atmosphere. These charts show meteorologist what the various temperatures are throughout the atmosphere at a given time in the future. The below two sounds are both from Tuesday Morning. The first is from 8am, and the second is from 11am. I have circled the key area on both for you to look at. The blue slanted dotted line represents 0 degrees Celsius or 32 degrees Fahrenheit. As the air parcel approaches the surface in the first, it melts.. but as time progresses and the atmospheres become more saturated.. the precipitation actually wet bulbs and is able to fall to the surface after some time as snow compared to rain. I’ll explain what wetbulbing is in the next section.

3km Nam Sounding at 6am Tuesday Morning Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com

3km Nam Sounding at 9am Tuesday Morning Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com

What Is Wetbulbing?

Wetbulbing occurs when precipitation falls through air that is not completely saturated. So a portion of the hydrometer(snowflake) evaporates into the less than saturated air as it falls. This evaporation creates a natural cooling effect on the atmosphere that surrounds the falling hydrometer. The air will continue to cool until the air is completely 100% saturated. This is what is being shown above. When precipitation begins to fall, there is an area around 3500’ that will be above freezing. Since the air won’t be completely saturated though (meaning dry air is still somewhat present) evaporation will occur as the snowflake falls through the air, keeping the snowflake from completely melting. Hopefully that makes since. Dry air keeps the snowflake from melting be evaporation, this is a naturally cooling process.

What Do Accumulation Maps Show?

The Nam 3km shows a dusting for many as this approaches from the Southwest, but there are still many details that need to be hammered out with this one. Below you can see what the most recent nam 3km shows regarding snowfall.

Nam 3km Snowfall Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Borderline Temperatures Will Make This A Tough Forecast

The temperatures in the lower atmosphere will make this a very difficult forecast where one location may see snowfall, but another location 5 miles up the road only sees rain. To give you an idea of how complicated this setup is, I have attached below the atmosphere temperatures at around 5000’ for you to look at, and then the surface temperatures.

850mb temps at 8am Tuesday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Surface Temps at 8am Tuesday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

More Details Needed

I will need more short range model data to make an accumulation forecast, but look for that sometime tomorrow as more information comes in. As of now, I believe that snow showers will be possible for many on Tuesday Morning, but I am not sure how it will affect roadways. Check back later for more information.

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Hunter Ward

January 4, 2020

High Wind Warnings/Winter Weather Advisories Up For Many In WNC, 6"+ Possible In Highest Elevations

Hunter Ward

January 4, 2020

The National Weather Service has posted several advisories this morning including High Wind Warnings for many around WNC. There are also Winter Weather Advisories posted for all NC/TN border counties will 6”+ of snowfall possible in the highest elevations. Below you can see the most recent shot of the AshevilleWX Interactive Radar. You can alway find the radar under the pull down tab or here!

How High Will Winds Gusts?

Winds around Asheville could gust as high as 35mph and locations above 3500’ could see wind gusts over 60mph! Please take the time this morning to secure outdoor accessories that could potential be blown over or away. Take a look at the most recent Nam 3km at 3am Sunday morning.

Nam 3km Winds Gusts at 3am Sunday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

When Will Rain End?

Rainfall should taper off for some by late this morning, but backside moisture will move in later this evening. As you can see on the radar above, there is another line of showers that looks to move through in the next couple of hours… then we could see some clearing. This clearing will be short lived though as winds pick up and temperatures plummet.

Upper Level Low To Bring Snowfall To Some

With Winter Weather Advisories up, many along the border of NC/TN are expecting snowfall this evening, and some of those snowflakes could even push into Asheville. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km radar depiction through tomorrow. Moisture will switch to snow this afternoon above 3500’ and then later this evening snow could even fall around Asheville. Locations like Hendersonville who will be farther away from the moisture source stand less of a chance to see snowfall compared to locations around and North of Asheville.

Nam 3km Radar Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

How Much Snow Will Fall?

Many locations around WNC north of I-40 have the chance to see a dusting of snowfall, and locations above 3000’ could see 1”-3”. High elevation locations above 5000’ could rake in 2”-4” or as much as 6” from this flow by the time it is cut off on Sunday morning, but those high totals will be very isolated. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km projected snowfall.

Nam 3km Projected Snowfall Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Will Roadway Be Affected?

In general around the most populated areas, no. But roadways that travel above 3500’ could very well become slick later this evening as snow falls. A slushy accumulation on I-26 through Sams Gap cannot be ruled out either, so please be mindful of this if you have travel plans this evening. Road crews will be out to ensure roadway are cleared, please give them time and space to complete their job. Join me live later this afternoon as I get a better idea of what the radar is showing and give you a live update regarding the systems progression.

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Hunter Ward

January 3, 2020

AshevilleWX Projected Snowfall Map For January 4th & 5th

Hunter Ward

January 3, 2020

Below is my projected snowfall map for WNC as an Upper Level Low brings snow to many Saturday evening and into Sunday. This will be similar to the other minor snowfall events that we have experience already this winter, and low impacts should be expected. Roadways above 3000’ could become slick as night falls on the area tomorrow evening and frozen precipitation begins to fall. Locations below 3000’ could experience some mixing issues for an hour or so as the cold air aloft works its way down. Surface temperatures are not conducive for accumulation below 3000’, especially on the roadways. Isolated accumulation will be possible below 3000’, but as you get closer to Asheville the chances will decrease.

What Do Models Show This Morning?

We have transitioned somewhat to short range models now, and although I still look at long range models… I use the short range models to nail down my projected totals. Below you can the most recent precipitation depiction for the entire run of the Nam 3km. Another round of rainfall will move in over the next 2-3 hours, and then scattered showers could follow. Then all eyes will turn to the Upper Level Low and the backside moisture that it will bring Saturday afternoon.

3km Nam Precipitaion GIF Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Model Snowfall Maps

The 3km Nam is very bullish for the High Elevations and believes that some locations could receive over 5” of snowfall. Usually this model is a bit high with total though, so that’s why I am call for 1”-3”+ for locations above 3500’ within 15 miles of the NC/TN border. Below you can see the 3km Nam projected snowfall.

3km Nam projected snowfall totals courtesy of Weathermodels.com

The National Weather Service also puts out a projection for snowfall and below is that map. They believe that around an inch will be possible in the Boone area, and just a dusting around Asheville. My thoughts are in line with theirs.

High Wind Gusts Likely Sunday Morning

The Nam 3km is indicating that 40mph+ gusts will be possible around Downtown Asheville early Sunday morning, and gusts over 60mph will be possible above 3500’. It would be wise to secure outdoor accessories tonight. This will not be the weekend to take down Christmas lights! I gave you your warning last week! Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km regarding wind gust Sunday AM.

Nam 3km Wind Gusts For Sunday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Relatively Low Impact Event For Asheville

There may be some snow showers for the area, and a dusting of snowfall cannot be ruled out.. but this will be another low impact event for the Asheville area. Our high impact events typically move in from the South, and only a few times can I remember an Upper Level Low dropping more than an inch or two of snow around Asheville. I think that the wind chill and blowing snow will be the story on Sunday morning around Asheville, with limit if any ice on roadways. Check out the AshevilleWX Live Cameras to see where snow is falling!

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