Icy Threat Increasing For WNC
Cold air appears to be more abundant tomorrow morning than originally thought as precipitation, and that could make for a very icy morning commute around WNC. Freezing rain and sleet will be likely for many mountain counties early tomorrow morning as a cold wedge sets in at the surface and ice accretion occurs. Below you can see a model depiction from the most recent Nam3km during the hight of the icing. This is at 5am Thursday am.
Nam 3km 5am Thursday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Timing
The Nam 3km has precipitation moving in around 1 am early Thursday morning as temperatures are in the low 30’s and even upper 20’s around WNC. Depending on how close you are to the high pressure to our Northeast, will determine if you see freezing rain at your location and just how much.
NAM 3km P-type Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Highest Impacts
Impacts from this storm could be minimal around the immediate Asheville area, but as your progress toward locations like Hendersonville & Black Mountain the chance for impactful icing increases significantly. Only 1-2 degrees in temperature difference will change the entire landscape. I won’t be surprised to see nasty roads around Henderson Co, tomorrow morning with only slight icing in the trees around Asheville. That being said, some models do show the Asheville area getting a bit colder then other models, so 1-2 degrees will make a big difference. As you work your way north and west into Madison & Haywood Counties the effects from ice will fall off.
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Other Model Data
The short range Canadian model also shows a slight icing event even for the Asheville area. Conditions will go downhill as you progress down I-26 towards Polk co. so please be mindful of this if you have to travel that way tomorrow morning. Below you can see The short range Canadian model.
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Column of Air
As you move from the Asheville area to the Hendersonville area, surface temperatures early Thursday morning will decrease. Below you can see a sounding from the Asheville area early tomorrow morning. Notice how surface temperatures are right at 30 degrees. Prime temperature for icing.
Asheville Sounding As Precipitation Moves In Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Power Outages Possible Across NC Thursday
Power outages will certainly be possible around WNC especially along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. As you work into the Piedmont of WNC those power outages will only increase. This will be a significant ice storm for the Piedmont of NC. Trees will likely topple under the weight of ice tomorrow morning and power will likely go out for many. Even here in WNC it will be wise to prepare to have some form of alternative heat. Depending on your location, there is a chance your power could go out due to falling trees as well. Please take this afternoon to make those preparations.
