An overrunning precipitation event will likely occur this weekend around WNC where cold temperatures will be in place. Moisture will begin to stream into WNC Saturday afternoon for the SW and will run into a frozen column of air. Snowfall will begin for many as the afternoon progresses and more moisture begins to move in. Models are really just now getting a grip on this solution, so some caution is to be had here but I will do my best to walk you through the possible scenarios.
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Model Data
The most recent NAM suite of models has snow beginning late in the afternoon on Saturday, and has several inches on the ground by the time midnight rolls around. Check out the most recent depiction below!
NAM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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GFS Model Data
The GFS model is showing a similar solution to the NAM with overrunning precipitation becoming predominate later in the afternoon on Saturday.
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GFS Snowfall Map
The GFS shows similar accumulation totals for WNC from this snowstorm, and the threat should really start to be taken seriously. 3”-6” of snowfall will cause problems on roadways Saturday evening. Please begin to make preparations.
GFS Snowfall Map Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
GFS Sounding
The column of air that the GFS is showing i’m place over WNC Saturday afternoon is very cold and frozen throughout. This is very supportive of heavy wet snowfall. I believe that wet snow will be the precipitation type with this system as the evening progresses, and several inches of snowfall will be possible!
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How Much Snow For WNC?
A lot more information is needed to complete this forecast, but as of now I believe that a general 3”-6” could be possible around the Asheville area, and then those totals will decrease as you head SW. I will have a snowfall map out sometime early tomorrow morning.
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I Will Be Out Of Town This Weekend
After tomorrow morning, I will be shutting of my devices and heading out of town for a nice, relaxing weekend. I know that many of you have come to rely on my constant updates during the storms, but this trip has been planned for a while and I am looking very much forward to it. Do not expect updates from me throughout this storm. I will make my final forecast on Friday morning, and if things changes so be it.. I hope that you all can respect my personal time. Thanks!
