I promise, this cold will go away soon… but it won’t be this weekend. Another strong front is going to push through WNC today bringing many locations a couple of tenths of inch of rainfall. Then, on the backside winds will really pick up as temperatures drop to freezing in many locations. Snow showers will also pick up for many border counties, even down into the valleys. I am not exactly certain where exactly snow will fall, but models indicate that a column would be supportive of snow down to around 2800’ or so. Below you can see a simulated precipitation depiction map from the most recent Nam 3km.
3km Nam precipitation depiction courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Timing
Moisture will switchover from rain to snow beginning later today in elevations above 4500’, and then as the night progresses snow levels could drop all the way down to some isolated valley locations. This would mean that a switchover to snow will be possible for many populated areas early tomorrow morning. By noon on Saturday though, this system will exit the area leaving behind cold temperatures.
Accumulation?
Yes, in fact several inches could be possible above 4500’. I expect locations like Clingmans Dome & Roan Mountain to rake in the precipitation with 2”-4” of snow falling. What is interesting is that short range models even indicate that some valley locations could see accumulation. I am somewhat skeptical of this, but take a look at the most recent Nam 3km accumulation map.
Nam 3km Snowfall Accumulation Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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High Winds Expected
Models indicate that later today, gusts to 40mph could be possible around the Asheville area. Below I have added the projected wind gusts map produced by the most recent NAM 3km. As you can see, around the Asheville Airport a value of 40mph is hoisted as the peak. I think that gusts of 30mph+ will certainly be likely at your house so it would be wise to secure outdoor accessories.
Nam 3km wind gusts courtesy of Weathermodel.com
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Freeze Expected Sunday AM
Record breaking cold is expected across WNC on Sunday morning as a freeze takes hold of the area. The record low temperature at the Asheville Airport for May 10th is 32 degrees set back in 1966 and that record will likely fall on Sunday. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km temperatures early Sunday morning.
Nam 3km Temps Sunday morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Cover Sensitive Vegetation Sunday AM
As winds subside and temperatures plummet frost will set in for most locations early Sunday morning. This will have a devastating effect on sensitive vegetation that is not properly covered. It would be wise to stop by your local gardening store to pick up some frost protection if possible today.
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Warm Up Is Coming
Yes that is right, more seasonable temperatures are finally on the way late next week for WNC. We will finally. break out of these really cool morning and have spring like mornings with low temps in the 50’s. Perfect for starting your garden!! So bear with me until then!
