Great Uncertain Remains With Dorian Track

Where Tropical Storm Dorian heads over the next 5-7 days is somewhat of a current mystery, and all locations along the Southern East Coast should be watching. Many models indicate that a Florida landfall could be possible, but with each passing run, the track shifts in one direction or another. Below you can see the current spread of model tracks, along with the National Hurricane Centers Cone.

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Here is a zoomed in version near the Atlantic Coast of FL.

This is considered a “Hurricane Spaghetti Plot” and shows all current model tracks. These are just possibilities from the most recent run of a given model. This gives meteorologist an overview of all possible model tracks.

Intensity Forecast

There is also a large spread among models as to how strong exactly Dorian gets. Currently the storm is entraining dry air, and that is hindering the atmosphere around the storm from properly stacking itself. Models forecast this dry air to subside as the storm approaches the Bahamas later this week, but how much strengthening occurs as it approaches the US is still very unclear. For now, all locations along the Southern East Coast (NC,SC,GA,FL) need to be watching. We could see dry air rip this storm apart, but given what most models are showing, that appears less likely. The National Hurricane Center believes that Dorian can reach Category 2 status by Fri night- or Saturday, baring down in the Atlantic Coast of Florida. With these systems though, we have seen projected tracks this far out be wrong, and that is why I am advising all on the Southern Atlantic Coast to pay attention. Even locations like Miami are not out of the potential path, and it will take several more model runs to get a better picture. Stay tuned though, I will keep you updated on the progression.

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Will Dorian Affect WNC?

The short answer is that I do not know, lol. If it does, it would be on Monday and into Tuesday of next week. There is no trough coming to quickly push Dorian out to sea after its potential landfall, so it will likely bury itself into the interior of the US. If that happens, WNC could experience wind gusts and heavy rainfall from its progression. As of right now though, I believe that this weekend will be beautiful around WNC, and any affects from Dorian will be pushed to the early part of the week. Check back soon, I will make sure you are updated on how Dorian will affect WNC!