As a front pushes it way though Western North Carolina, isolated showers will be possible throughout the day on Tuesday. This will bring some much needed rainfall to some locations around the area. Below is the most recent run of the NAM 3km, and as you can see the totals vary greatly from valley to valley. Therefore, some locations could see over 1” of rainfall (especially as you get closer to the NC/TN border), while other locations barely manage a tenth of an inch. This is because this system will be moving in from E TN, and downsloping will dry out the system as it progresses East.
Will This Break The Drought?
For some locations along the NC/TN border this could certainly break the drought. Higher locations could see as much as 3” of rainfall from this system as the moisture is strained out along the spine of the Appalachians. But for others down in certain valleys away from the NC/TN border, only minimal precipitation will fall. On the map above you can see that it only shows around .2” of rainfall for the Asheville Airport, but has precipitation maximums of 4”+ along the NC/TN border. On this model run the Franklin station is projected to pick up over an inch of rainfall. Does that come to fruition? I am not sure. These type events will hammer some valley locations, but leave others dry.. so a general rule of thumb is that if you are within 20 miles of the NC/TN border, you can expect twice the rainfall compared to locations 30-40 miles away.
Cooler Air Is Coming
The European model continues to show Fall temperatures throughout the next 10 days, so it should be very nice around WNC! The mornings will eventually begin to cool off after this first front passes, and next weekend we could even see temperatures in the low to mid 40’s. This will continue to aid leaf change progression around WNC, and I am still expecting a somewhat spectacular fall color showing this year, even though the leaves are a couple of days late! Click Here to view my 2019 Fall Foliage Forecast!