Higher Elevations Prepare For Accumulating Snow
Models indicate that strong backside moisture will push through WNC as a front moves up the East Coast and strengthens. With frozen temperatures in place, locations above 3500’ should begin to see snow showers around 2-3 pm this afternoon. As winds pick up this evening, some of those snow flurries/showers will be able to make their way into the valleys below.
I have been carefully analyzing wind profiles, and the 3km NAM continues to increase peak gusts as we approach the event. With winds expected to gust over 25kts, I think that there is a fair chance that Asheville sees a snow showers later today or this evening from the Northwest Flow. I can’t be certain on this, but conditions appear ripe for snow showers to break containment in the higher elevations, and drift into the valleys below. Taking a look at peak wind gust below, you an see how they have increased from the article I wrote yesterday. Gusts over 50mph will be possible in the highest elevations, and winds gusting over 35mph will be possible in many valley locations. 5-Day Forecast
3km NAM wind gusts courtesy of weathermodels.com
Accumulation maps produced by the most recent 3km NAM suggest that even a dusting will be possible in locations outside of the mountains. Locations like Burnsville & Marshall will likely see heavy snow during some periods tonight and into tomorrow that could accumulate on roadways. Below you can see the Nam 3km precipitation map.
3km NAM Snowfall Totals courtesy of weathermodels.com
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Those are some pretty hefty totals in the highest elevations on the NC/TN border. Even if you cut some of them in half, that still 8”+ in some locations. The winds are so strong, that it appears decent banding of the incoming precipitation will occur and push flakes even as far as Asheville. Possible even farther. Its really difficult to predict how far these Northwest Flow bands will extend out of the mountains, but seeing how strong these wind gusts could possibly be, leads me to think that snowflakes may even push as far south as Hendersonville. As snow approaches, you can use the Ashevillewx Weather Radar to track the incoming moisture. You can also view the Grimes Teich Anderson LLP Live Downtown Asheville Camera to see if it is snowing in Downtown Asheville. Check back soon for another update, and please report snowfall at your area to our facebook page, or email me at Hunter@Ashevillewx.com.
