Scattered Showers Through Early Week Likely Around WNC, Then Heavier Rainfall Move In Again Wed Afternoon

A dreary Sunday, and beginning to the week awaits you around WNC, as mild temperatures and scattered showers move through the area. Temperatures will push into the upper 50’s-low 60’s each afternoon, and rainfall amount shouldn’t amount to more then .25” each day. This will all change though when a strong upper level low pressure system attempts to move through the area Wednesday-Friday. Some uncertainty still exists with this system and exactly what it will bring to WNC, but I will do my best to detail out the potential scenarios below.


Heavy Rainfall, Flash Flooding Possible Wednesday Into Thursday

The European model has been adamant about a strong upper level low stacking with a surface low later this week as ample moisture flows in from the gulf. This will create an interesting situation for many across TX & AR, but it is still not even certain if this storm forms. The Euro shows a dangerous winter storm on the backside, whereas the GFS has only shows some overrunning precipitation(until the most recent run), that never gets wound up enough to produce any significant precipitation. So what does this mean for WNC? Well the European model has shown a much stronger system which brings twice as much rainfall Wednesday into Thursday compared to the GFS. Given how saturated the ground is, and how high streams/rivers are already flowing.. 2 more inches of rainfall will cause problems. So, we are currently watching to see if the GFS begins to move toward the European models.. and there are many signs that it is. Over the past several runs, the GFS increased precipitation totals for the event from around .5” to over 2”. The Euro model has shown a 2”+ event for the past several runs, so it appears that the GFS is moving towards a more amplified solution..similar to the European. Below you can see the variation in total precipitation between the two models. On this past run, the GFS actually showed more precipitation compared to the Euro, but the European has been more consistent.

0z European Accumulated Precipitation Through Thursday Courtesy of Weather.us

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GFS Total Precipitation Thru Thursday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Flash Flood Concerns Return

With already saturated soil, and creeks/rivers running high.. another 2”-3” of rainfall will again cause problems. It is still not certain yet as to how much precipitation will fall, but the picture is becoming more and more clear as we progress towards Wednesday. Most models indicate that 2”+ of rainfall will be possible as an upper level low moves through WNC. Areas that experience flooding on Friday will likely experience flooding again on Thursday morning. Therefore, you should prepare for water to rise.

Will There Be Winter Weather On The Backside?

Models indicate that temperatures will plummet late Thursday as the upper level low moves overhead and the surface low exits. Some higher elevation locations could switchover to snow before the precipitation is gone. Then, northwest flow moisture will move through the area. Winds will gust early Friday morning above 30 mph, and that has the potential to push snowflakes out of the higher elevations and into the valleys below. We are still not exactly sure how the front end of this storm will unfold, so naturally there is great uncertainty as to what the backside will hold. Check back soon for another update, and have a great Sunday!



Rainfall Set To Move Into WNC Tomorrow, Will Likely Make 2018 Wettest Year On Record

Weather models continue to indicate that another frontal passage will occur Thursday and into Friday, bringing with it heavy rain, and some flash flooding. The Asheville Airport currently sits at 73.98” of rainfall for the year. In 2013 The Asheville Airport received 75.22” of rainfall, which currently holds the position of wettest year on record. If Asheville receives 1.24” of rain or more from this system, we will break an all-time yearly rainfall record. Most models show 1.75” of rain or more falling between now and Saturday, so it seems likely that we will break the record. Below are a few model depictions of how much precipitation will fall.

GFS Precipitation Depiction Thru Saturday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Euro Precipitation Totals Thru Saturday Courtesy of Weather.us

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12km Nam Precipitation Totals Curtesy of Pivotalweather.com

Breaking The Record

Even if 1.24” or more is not recording at the Asheville Airport from this event, another front will move in on Sunday and into Monday that will likely push us over the top. So right now I am predicting that 2018 will go down as the wettest year on record for WNC. We have been talking about this record here at AshevilleWX since we broke the all-time monthly rainfall record back in May. So now two major rainfall records will fall in 2018! This is astonishing. I won’t delve into the climate aspect of this, but it is monumental that we are breaking this record again… and should be noteworthy to all. Check back soon for another update as this event approaches, and we track the rainfall as it falls.

Snow Showers Possible This Evening For Many Around WNC, Accumulation Cannot Be Ruled Out

Rain will continue to fall around WNC as the upper level low strengthens and exits. On the backside, upper level temperatures will begin to crash, and locations above 5000’ on the NC/TN Border are already switching over to snow. As the afternoon progresses, many locations around WNC will switch over to snow. This include valley locations. Below you can see my projected snowfall map for this event. As winds pick up this afternoon and gust over 40mph, snow showers will break containment along the NC/TN border, and push into the valleys below. I believe that Asheville will see snow showers around rush hour this afternoon, so please use caution.


Will Snow Stick?

It’s hard to say exactly because the ground is so wet. Winds will effectively dry the ground some as snow falls, but its hard to determine how much drying will occur. I believe a dusting will be possible around Asheville, but the farther south you move, chances decrease. Check back with me this afternoon for a live update as the event unfolds!

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Heavy Rain Today, Then Snow Showers Possible Tomorrow Night For WNC.. Highest Elevations Could See 8"+

Rainfall is currently beginning to move into Western North Carolina, and that will persist throughout the day today.. and into tomorrow afternoon. You can track this precipitation with the live interactive radar. Upper level temperatures will begin to crash Friday morning, and as precipitation exits, higher elevation locations will begin to switch to snow. Below you can see the Nam 3km precipitation depiction late Friday night.

3km Nam Radar Depiction 11pm Friday Night… Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Will Northwest Flow Snow Make It To Asheville?

It is very possible that we see snow showers push into the French Broad River Valley, and even into Downtown Asheville late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Upper level winds will be very gusty as the surface low strengthens and pressure gradient force kicks in. That will propel some of those snowflakes that are falling on the NC/TN border, into the valleys below. Its hard to say exactly when the snow will push into Asheville, but with models showing winds gusting to 40mph at the Asheville Airport (see below), it will be hard for snow showers to stay contained at the border.

Winds Could Cause Damage Friday Night

As the low pressure exits the area, it rapidly strengthens, and the atmosphere must compensate for that. Therefore, winds will rush towards the deepening low pressure in an attempt to balance. These winds will howl through the mountains of Western North Carolina Friday and into Saturday, and could cause some damage.. especially in the higher elevations. It would be wise to secure outdoor Christmas decorations later today if possible, and also bring in any other outdoor accessories you may have on your porch that could blow away.

How Much Snow Is Expected?

I am only expected a dusting or so around Asheville proper.. but within 15 miles of the NC/TN border I believe 1”-3” of snow will be possible below 3500’, and 3”-6”+ will be possible above 3500’. Below you can see the snowfall map that the most recent Nam 3km produced. As you can see some locations like Clingman’s Dome & Roan Mountain really rake in the precipitation. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of these locations record over 1’ of snow following this northwest flow event.

3km Nam Total Snowfall Depiction.. Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Travel Friday Night-Saturday Morning

Please use caution if you are heading towards the NC/TN border on Friday or Saturday morning. It is uncertain as to exactly when snow will begin to fall on I-40(Through Gorge) & I-26 (Newfound Gap), but at some point in time on Friday it will happen. DOT crews will do their best to keep roadways clear, but please use caution, and be patient as you move through the area. By Saturday afternoon, things should be settling down, and snowfall should be tapering off. Around Asheville, I expect less travel problems.. but they cannot be ruled out. Even a dusting of snow can make roadways slick around town.. so please be mindful if you are out late Friday night. Check back soon for another update as short range models continue to refine data, and provide a clearer picture as to how this backside moisture will unfold.

Grimes Teich Anderson LLP Live Downtown Asheville Camera

Henco Reprographics Live Candler/Mt. Pisgah Camera

Mild Week In Store For WNC, Rain Moves In Thursday With Rain/Snow Mix Possible Late Friday

A relatively mild week looks to be on tap for Western North Carolina as many scurry around to finish up final bits of holiday shopping, and teachers pull their hair out before Christmas Break.  Through Wednesday we appear to remain dry with partly cloudy skies overhead.  Temperatures will push into the 50’s each afternoon, and the cold that nips in the morning will subside.  More rain is on the way though.



Rainfall Moves In Thursday

A strong upper level low pressure system will make its way through the Southeast on Thursday, bringing with it the chance for more rain, and even some isolated flash flooding.  Snowfall on this front end does not appear to be likely since temperatures will be in the 40’s when precipitation moves in.  However on the backside, some snow showers appear to be possible.  Another inch of rainfall looks to be likely through Friday around WNC, and that will push us even closer to breaking that all time record.  It is going to be very close, but I am not sure that we break the record.

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Snow Showers Possible Friday Into Saturday

6z GFS Precipitation Depiction Late Friday Night Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

As this strong system exits to the northeast, a deformation feature will develop on the backside, and that has the potential to move through WNC.  These features are always extremely difficult to model, and WNC typically doesn’t receive anything significant from a storm exiting in this manor, but it bears watching due to the volatility of the pattern.  I certainly expect favored Northwest flow areas above 3000’ to receive accumulation, but below that it is hard to tell without short range model data.  So the main takeaway is to note that I have my eye on Friday & Saturday for a minor winter event.  I am not expecting significant snow accumulation, but some accumulation cannot be ruled out, especially within 15 miles of the NC/TN border.  Check back soon for another update and have a great day!

1"+ Rainfall On Top Of Snowpack Could Cause Flash Flooding Around WNC This Weekend

Rainfall is expected to move in early tomorrow morning, and will persist through the day and into Saturday. Many locations will see over an inch of rainfall from this system, with some locations even seeing 3+ inches. This will be problematic due to the amount of snow that has yet to melt in many areas. This past snow was extremely heavy/wet, and temperatures have yet to rise high enough to produce a big melt in locations that got over a foot of snow. So as the rain falls, it will melt existing snow.. creating extreme runoff. This will fill streams and rivers quickly and could cause flash flooding in select locations. Ponding on roadways will also be troublesome because some roadways still have snow on them. The water will have limited areas to run off to, and therefore it will run down the roadways.

Be Cautious Traveling

Backroads that still have heavy snow packs accumulated on the sides could cause cars to hydroplane as snow melts and rain falls. Below you can see the most recent 3km Nam run, and it shows a widespread inch of rainfall falling for most locations. Many areas along the Blue Ridge Escarpment though receive must more precipitation. These same areas also had some of the highest snowfall totals. If locations like Lake Toxaway receive 3”-4” of rain on top of 12”+ of snow that still on the ground.. that is going to cause big problems. So I have my eye on this rainfall, and believe that those of you and the area who live near streams should be ready to move to higher ground if necessary.

3kmNamRainfallDec13.png

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Black Ice Possible Tonight Around WNC, Rain Moves In By End Of Week

Temperatures will drop into the 20’s overnight, and wet roadways will refreeze in many places. Watch for slick spots tomorrow morning, and please be careful as you make your way around. Black ice will also be possible Wednesday morning as we dip back into the 20’s and teens in some places Tuesday night.

Rain Moves In Friday

Another system will move through WNC on Friday and into Saturday, bringing with it the chance for over an inch of rainfall for many areas. This, combined with snow melt could create some excessive flash flooding as rain falls. Below you can see the most recent run of the GFS, and it shows 1.3” of rainfall at the Asheville Airport. Currently The Asheville Airport sits at 70.94” of rainfall for the year. Our record rainfall for any year recorded is 75.22” in 2013. We are just over 4” away from breaking that record, and this system will place us even closer..

Countdown To History

With only 4.28” of rainfall between our currently yearly total and the record set back in 2013.. it is entirely feasible for us to break this record. I will make sure and keep you updated on the record as the year closes, and ensure that you know when the record is broken!

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Updated Snowfall Projection Map, Heavy Snow Set To Move Into WNC

As models continue to resolve how this situation will unfold, I have refined my snowfall totals to give you a more in-depth look as we go forward. A range of 12”-24” is very wide so I wanted to narrow that down a bit to help eliminate any confusion. A warm nose aloft could limit these totals, but if all precipitation falls as snow, some of these totals could be on the low end. Counties like Jackson & Clay will be farther away from the cold air source and closer to the warm nose, therefore mixing is expected. That will cut down on totals significantly, but I still believe 6”+ is possible in Jackson (especially in the Balsams), and 3-6” will be possible as you get closer to Andrews. Towards Boone, the column of air looks to be more suitable for snowfall throughout the event, and higher snowfall rates will be possible because surface temps will be in the 20’s. Therefore over 2 feet of snow will be possible in some locations N of Asheville between Mt. Mitchell & Boone, NC. Locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment including Henderson, Polk, & Transylvania counties will all have the chance to see enhanced snowfall totals as well. I believe a strip of 18”-24” of snow will be possible across those 3 counties.

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Moisture Moving In

Current radar shows moisture already moving into the area, and there have been reports of snow/sleet falling already in some locations. Some mixing will be possible during the daylight hours, but as the sun sets and heavier precipitation moves in.. I believe we will switch to all snow around Asheville. The heaviest precipitation appears to move in late this evening and into tomorrow morning. Some models suggest that the warm nose aloft around Asheville will melt precipitation and produce sleet, but the margin or error here is razor thin.. so it must be monitored.

WNC Webcams To Watch

I have two live cameras up for you to enjoy this event!

Downtown Asheville Live Camera: Here

Candler/Mt. Pisgah Live Camera: Here

Radar: here

Historic Snowstorm Set To Move Into WNC Tomorrow Afternoon, Here Is My Most Recent Updated Expected Accumulation Map

Models wavered some yesterday as to how much precipitation will actually be available, but it appears this morning that those hinderances have been addressed and the high totals are still very possible. In fact 2’+ will be possible in many locations around WNC. Totals may need to be adjusted just a hair for locations like Cashiers, NC & Highlands, NC.. but as you move SW from Asheville, mixing concerns are still present.

High Resolution NAM

Below you can see the snowfall map and a radar depiction of when the storm will likely begin. The high res nam is bringing snow showers in by early afternoon tomorrow, and by sunset has already accumulated a couple of inches. Soil temps are going to be supportive of accumulation quickly, and most everything that falls frozen will accumulate. Wind gusts will push over 30mph in many locations Sunday morning, and falling tree limbs will likely cause widespread power outages. Models do not suggest winds high enough for Blizzard conditions in the valleys, but white outs still cannot be ruled out. Above 3500’ some gust could reach 50-60mph.

3km Nam Radar Depiction for Early Saturday Afternoon Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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3km NAM Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

How To Prepare

Have your family prepared to hang out around the house from Saturday Evening thru at least Monday. That means supplies to stay warm in case the power goes out (alternative heat source), extra food, and entertainment! You can also fill your bathtub full of water, in case water services are limited. Please use alternative heating sources safely, with proper ventilation. Give crews time to get the roadways cleared… If you need to see road conditions you can check them downtown on our Grimes Teich Anderson LLP Live Camera. Check back here on Ashevillewx as well, I will be doing regular updates and facebook live videos as we continue to approach the storm.

12"-24" Of Snow Will be Possible For Some Locations In WNC This Weekend, Heres My First Call Map

There does appear to be some variability among short range models and long range models regarding temperatures, but what does seem certain, is that a large winter storm is on the way. Will you see ice or snow? For many locations around Asheville, a mixed bag is possible.. but the predominate p-type appears to fall as snow. As you work your way towards Franklin, NC and the warm nose becomes more substantial, sleet and freezing rain appear to be the more likely. Some snow will fall in all of WNC though. I will put together a new map as we move forward and get more data, I just wanted to give out my initial thoughts for how much snow will actually occur. Check back for an updated map, and have a great Thursday!

Latest Video Update:

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