Another active weather day looks to be in-store for WNC as a cold pool aloft makes thinks interesting. All modes of severe weather will be possible today as these cells thrive off of the afternoon heat that will build over the area. Below you can see the most recent severe weather forecast from the Severe Prediction Center located in Norman, OK. Asheville has been placed in the Slight area which means there is a level 2/5 risk for severe weather.
Courtesy of SPC
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Timing?
These storms appear to develop later this evening around 5-7pm and then they will move to the East. Steep lapse rates aloft will allow for hail growth to occur, and that could create for severe warning criteria hail to fall on isolated mountain locations. Below you can see the most recent HRRR model run and it shows these storms developing around 4-5pm and then racing to the East as enhancement occurs along the Blue Ridge Escarpment.
HRRR Simulated Radar Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Types of Severe?
Hail will certainly be possible with these cells as they get their act together and move towards the East, but what also appears more likely for many areas especially along the Blue Ridge Escarpment is high lightning density. That means that these storms will likely produce heavy lightning, and also lots of thunder as a consequence, so it will be wise to head indoors later tonight. Below you can see the lightning density map produced by the most recent HRRR model. These are some high totals as storms move through, and that indicates that there will be a high probability for lighting and thunder at your area.
Lightning Density Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Lightning Density Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Hail Probability
There is a chance that these cells could drop hail across portions of WNC, and that can be seen on the forecasted hail map provided by the HRRR below. No worries though, I will be going live to make sure you know where the storms are, and where they will move next this evening. Be sure to check my Facebook page this evening for an update.
HRRR Hail Forecast Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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